UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2024) Although retail sales volumes remaining unchanged in March was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.5 % m/m), sales volumes still rose by 1.9% q/q in Q1 as a whole, bringing the... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Why Japan intervenes in foreign exchange markets Foreign exchange interventions by the Bank of Japan have become rare and the further weakening of the yen in recent weeks has yet to trigger one. While there are some arguments in favour of using FX... 19th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Interest rate purgatory to continue for a while Much to the RBNZ's chagrin, inflation in New Zealand continued to have a four handle last quarter. The main culprit was non-tradables inflation, which remained uncomfortably high, at 5.8%. With the... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Even if mortgage rates fall to 6.5% this year as we expect, homeowners will still be discouraged from listing their home, ensuring supply remains tight. At the same time, mortgaged buyer demand should... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Mar. 2024) The fall in existing home sales in March was triggered by mortgage rates climbing back above 7% the month before. Even so, transactions remain above the trough at the end of last year, consistent with... 18th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update US vs. European inflation differences overstated On the face of it, core disinflation seems to have stalled or even reversed in the US but not in Europe, suggesting that Fed cuts will come much later than those by the ECB and BoE. However, there are... 18th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 24) The modest rise in unemployment last month doesn’t change the bigger picture that Australia’s labour market is firing on all cylinders. That being the case, the RBA will be in no rush to pivot to... 18th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium’s public debt a cause for concern? We think it is most likely that future governments bring down Belgium’s budget deficit sufficiently to put its debt on a sustainable trajectory. However, the risks are that the deficit is higher than... 17th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE 3.0%) and drop in the core rate from 4.5% to 4.2% (consensus and CE 4.1%) raises the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2024) Although the Q1 CPI print was a touch stronger than we had predicted, we still expect inflation to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band by Q3. However, given uncertainties around the inflation... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Freeland spends what she can in Budget 2024 Although Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland stuck to her previous pledge to keep the budget deficit below $40bn in the new fiscal year, she nonetheless spent the small windfall afforded to the... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in job vacancies a bigger worry than fall in employment As the plunge in employment in Q1 is probably a response to the recession last year, employment will probably soon rebound now that the economy is growing again. The real risk is a rebound in job... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 2024) The government’s policies to boost affordability for first-time buyers will have only a modest impact on demand, but they still add to our sense that house prices will rise in the coming years. While... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read