Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Iran strikes, Poland utility prices, IMF forecasts Tensions between Israel and Iran ratcheted up this week, although there's at least hope that both sides are now trying to avoid any further escalation. For Israel’s economy, the pressing issue is the... 19th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly How will Bank Indonesia respond to the slump in the rupiah? With the rupiah coming under further downward pressure against the US dollar this week, a rate hike by Bank Indonesia at its scheduled meeting on Wednesday cannot be ruled out. However, our sense is... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election begins, RBI intervention, Middle East tensions India's mammoth general election has just kicked off. Results will be announced on 4 th June and as things stand, PM Modi’s BJP looks on course for another big win. Meanwhile, the rupee fell to a... 19th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Copom break its forward guidance? Investors are no longer pricing in a 50bp interest rate cut at the Brazilian central bank meeting next month, despite the forward guidance at the March meeting signalling such a move. While we think... 18th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran-Israel tensions, Gulf floods, Egypt’s preliminary budget The ratcheting up of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, it seems unlikely that the Gulf states will get drawn in unless there is a serious... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-In: What currency sell-offs mean for emerging markets 1713880800 The first Fed rate cut of this cycle is now looking like a second-half event and EM investors – and policymakers – are having to adjust to the delay.
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy may be turning a corner South Africa’s latest hard activity data provided some encouraging signs that the economy may be turning the corner even if it comes too late to help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s foreign investment struggles persist Saudi Arabia has yet to be able to raise foreign direct investment towards its Vision 2030 goals, prompting a turn to the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to prop up investment spending. Unless the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five key challenges for Mexico’s next president The latest polls ahead of Mexico’s election on 2nd June suggest that Claudia Sheinbaum, protégée of incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), is likely to become the country’s next... 17th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the currency sell-off? The recent bout of EM currency weakness may prompt (further) FX intervention, particularly in Asia, to stem currency volatility. Turkey’s central bank is likely to hike rates at its meeting next week... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.3% y/y, in March will not be enough to sway the SARB from starting its easing cycle. 17th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update What if the Fed doesn’t cut? Local factors will determine the next moves by most of Asia’s central banks, not the actions of the US Fed. We expect policymakers in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Korea to lower interest... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q1) & Activity (Mar. 2024) Stronger-than-expected official GDP figures indicate that China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, thanks to policy support. But monthly activity data suggest that this policy-driven recovery is shaky... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed to 1.6% y/y in March on the back of weaker food and non-food inflation. While there’s likely to be a slight bump up in inflation in the second half of... 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Iran’s strike: what next for Israel? The Iranian strike over the weekend has been largely shrugged off by Israel’s financial markets and on its own is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. The key uncertainty now is how Israel... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read