China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Broad credit growth slowed sharply to its weakest pace on record last month. This threatens to derail the ongoing economic recovery and is likely to trigger additional policy easing. Increased fiscal... 13th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily LatAm currencies may weaken despite hawkish bias The hawkish tone of Latin American central banks this week supports our view that loosening cycles in the region will proceed more gradually than many anticipate. But even so, we think most Latin... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections and inflation target, Angola debt Electioneering in South Africa heated up this week as parties openly warned of the different scenarios that could emerge after this month’s polls. The scenario that is most worrying remains a left... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary-China relations: a limitless partnership? Chinese President Xi’s visit to Hungary this week was the first by China’s head of state in 20 years and led to the establishment of an “all-weather partnership” between the two countries. There are... 10th May 2024 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Targeted regulations won’t fix structural overcapacity With the EU and US both apparently moving closer to imposing new trade restrictions on EVs and possibly on other "new energy" products from China, China's state media this week made a concerted effort... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why we still think rate cuts will commence in Q3 The consensus is now expecting the RBI to begin its easing cycle in Q4. But the inflation outlook, as well as recent measures to ease liquidity constraints, suggest to us that a policy pivot will... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (April 2024) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y last month and, more importantly, the sharp decline in underlying services inflation suggests that, despite the hawkish language in the Copom statement on... 10th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade to gradually recover this year Although the recent weakness in exports from China suggest that a sharp rebound in global goods trade probably isn’t on the cards, we still expect global trade to rise this year after a very weak 2023... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The floods in southern Brazil: the economic impact The scale of the economic impact of the floods that have affected much of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul will depend on how long it takes for the waters to recede and for reconstruction... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: excess savings an upside growth and inflation risk Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut... 9th May 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE ups the ante with OPEC, review of April’s PMIs The UAE has raised its oil production capacity even further in a sign that it wants to raise actual output. But with rumours growing that OPEC+ may extend its current low oil output quotas beyond June... 9th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update How can South Africa tackle its public debt problem? The South African government has turned to fiscal austerity in an effort to stabilise the public debt ratio and to keep investors on board, but this is likely to become harder to do post-election... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Economic implications of the heatwave Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 33.3% y/y in March to 32.5% y/y in April and we think that inflation will continue to ease over the rest of this year and into 2025. That said, while... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read