Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI stays the course with another 75bp rate hike The Bank of Israel delivered another 75bp interest rate hike to 2.75% today and while the accompanying communications were not particularly hawkish, it’s clear that the tightening cycle is far from... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB ends rate hiking cycle, but risks remain After raising its base rate by a larger-than-expected 125bp, to 13.00%, Hungary’s central bank (MNB) announced today that it has now ended its rate hiking cycle and we now forecast the base rate to be... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy crisis support won’t avert recessions across CEE Fiscal support to protect households and businesses from sky-high energy prices generally amounts to around 2-3% of GDP across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This will cushion, rather than fully... 14th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE economies hardest hit by Europe’s energy crisis In this Update, we analyse the impact of surging energy prices in Europe and show that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies are the most vulnerable. The share of household disposable... 12th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s central bank brings hiking cycle to an end The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle again today with a 25bp rate hike to 6.75%. There was no new guidance in the communications in terms of the central bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s gas squeeze: the impact so far and next steps Russia’s squeeze on the gas market helped it to generate $50bn (6% of GDP) in total gas exports in the first half of this year, 2-3 times more than normal. Russia’s balance of payments is in such a... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening with a 75bp hike The Bank of Israel stepped up its tightening cycle with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 2.00%, today as it became more concerned about the strength of inflation. Our previously-hawkish view for interest... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT rate cut sowing the seeds of next currency crisis Turkey’s central bank stepped up its fight against economic orthodoxy by cutting its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, despite the backdrop of inflation at 80% and an extremely poor external... 18th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central and Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2022) GDP in Hungary and Romania continued to expand strongly in Q2 by 1-2% q/q, but the Czech and Slovakian economies barely grew at all and there was a shocking 2.3% q/q contraction in Poland. Looking... 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU & the rule of law dispute: why do EU funds matter? EU funds will provide a key boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years as the region navigates a challenging macro environment and slowing global growth. Disputes with the... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s LNG boost still a few years away With Russia tightening its squeeze on supply of gas to Europe, governments are turning their attention to other major gas exporters such as Qatar to try to fill the gap. But Qatar’s gas sector is... 9th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB brings its tightening cycle to an end The Czech National Bank became the first major EM central bank to end its tightening cycle after it left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today. The communications were not as dovish as we had... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy is wounded, not screaming in pain Western sanctions have caused activity in certain sectors of Russia’s economy to collapse, but activity has held up reasonably well in key areas such as oil production and less import-dependent... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read