Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Weaker China sets stage for fall in commodity prices The latest PMI data out of China suggest that demand for commodities softened again in January. And with Chinese demand unlikely to bounce back meaningfully this year, we continue to expect sharp... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Prices to come off the boil in 2022 After a stellar run in 2020-21, we expect the prices of most commodities to ease back this year as economic activity slows, notably in China, and supply bottlenecks start to ease. Drop-In: Neil... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs show demand stabilising, not reigniting The December PMI data for China point to a healthy pick-up in commodity demand. But this only partially reverses the declines from earlier in 2021, and the big picture remains that commodity demand in... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in China commodity imports may be misleading The sharp rise in China’s commodity imports last month could be taken as a sign that underlying demand growth is undergoing a renewed acceleration. But given that this is just one month’s data, and... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs still paint a bleak picture for commodities Taken together, China’s manufacturing PMIs point to somewhat stronger industrial activity in November, but this was almost entirely due to improved power supply last month rather than a pick-up in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The slump in the Baltic Dry Index is all about iron ore Some commentators have pointed to the slump in the Baltic Dry Index as a sign that shipping bottlenecks are easing. But we think it is more a symptom of lower Chinese steel output and plunging iron... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update What will the COP26 deal mean for commodities? Although the climate deal struck at COP26 appears to have fallen short on many counts, it does at least reaffirm our view that demand for traditional energy commodities will struggle in the long run. 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China metal imports unlikely to last China’s imports of iron ore and copper rose in October compared to a month prior (in seasonally adjusted terms). But we doubt this is the start of a renewed upswing, not least as indicators of demand... 8th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update We don’t expect dollar/oil correlation to stay positive for long Despite their recent positive correlation, we think that oil and the dollar will go in opposite directions before long: we continue to think that oil prices will fall back as the supply situation... 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Metals can’t ignore China slowdown for much longer Although the China PMI data were a mixed bag in October, the big picture is that they remain at odds with sky-high industrial metals prices. This adds to our view that prices have quite a long way to... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Downturn in China’s commodity imports intensifying China’s imports of key commodities slumped almost across the board in September. The main exception was imports of coal, which soared in response to recent power shortages. We expect coal imports to... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update How high energy prices affect other commodity prices As energy prices hit multi-year highs, we look into the link between energy and non-energy commodity prices. It is clear that industrial metal prices track energy prices the most closely over time... 11th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Overview Natural gas prices now untenably high The price of European natural gas (TTF) surged by around 35% this morning, before crashing back down on Putin’s reassuring comments about Russian supply. The latest price moves appear speculative, and... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read