Commodities Update China re-opening optimism boosts commodity imports Rather surprisingly, commodity imports generally ticked up in November, despite the wider deterioration in China’s trade position. However, we think this reflects undue optimism about an imminent pick... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Negative dollar-oil correlation likely to persist in the short run The negative correlation between the US dollar and the price of oil has reasserted itself in recent months, and we think it will persist as the looming global recession pushes the dollar higher and... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Weak growth to weigh on Chinese agricultural imports We think the combination of subdued domestic activity and an economic downturn in most major economies will hurt demand for Chinese economic output in the coming months, prompting lower production and... 14th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Rubber prices unlikely to bounce back soon As the global economy enters recession, the outlook for natural rubber demand appears bleak. What’s more, stocks are already high. We expect prices to fall further in the near term, before some... 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Higher oil imports not a sign of strong China demand China’s latest trade figures point to weak commodity demand both domestically and globally. Given that we don’t expect the slowdown in global economic growth to trough until early next year, we think... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs diverge, but point to persistent weakness China’s official and Caixin October manufacturing PMIs diverged, but the crux of the matter is that both are painting a picture of weak industrial demand. With the services sector also struggling due... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Spilling the beans on coffee Whilst we think coffee prices could have further to fall due to a strong US dollar, heightened investor risk aversion and the global economic downturn, constrained supply should put a floor under... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to soft commodity demand Industrial metals prices rose following the release of the latest survey data on China’s manufacturing sector. But the average of the headline PMIs continued to decline, as did the average of the... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Constrained supply to bolster grains prices for longer We now expect lower supply of grains over the coming months as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to reduce Black Sea exports and extreme weather conditions mean global stocks have been drawn down. We... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Europe should avoid widespread gas rationing We don’t think Europe will be forced to widely ration natural gas this winter because the sky-high price should attract sufficient LNG from abroad to replace reduced imports from Russia, whilst also... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s trade data show persistently weak oil demand Commodity import volumes generally held up well in August, with the exception of crude oil imports. As long as China continues with pandemic-related lockdowns, oil demand is likely to remain weak. 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Demand outlook deteriorating The latest manufacturing PMIs out of China and emerging Asia point to a worsening demand outlook for commodities, but especially industrial metals. This adds weight to our view that industrial metals... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Gloomy outlook for use of agriculturals in industry Deteriorating global economic growth over the coming quarters will weigh on industrial demand for cotton, natural rubber and lumber. That said, high oil prices will offer some support to cotton and... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read