We side with the optimists regarding the chances of another major technological step forward, although we can only guess at the timing. We expect the US to remain at the forefront of these advances for now, but it will not lead in all areas of new technology and, further ahead, it is possible that China will take the overall technological lead. Other advanced economies will have mixed success in adopting this technology, depending in large part on whether they raise investment and undertake structural reforms.
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