With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way. In the countries hit worst economically, the Philippines and India, we estimate that GDP is still 10-15% below the pre-crisis level. For most, headwinds from high unemployment, increased bankruptcies and continued social distancing will slow recoveries over the year ahead, and output gaps are likely to persist – even by the end of next year GDP in most countries will still be around 5% below what it would have been had the pandemic not happened.
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