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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

US Housing Market Update

Regular short commentaries on major news or events in the housing market, such as house price developments, the level of mortgage borrowing, reactions to news in the construction sector.

Sample - Higher mortgage fees don’t point to future mortgage stress

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What next for mortgage interest rates?How will lower oil prices affect housing?How good is the outlook for residential rents?Valuation picture weighing on housing market confidenceHigher mortgage fees don’t point to future mortgage stressHow significant is the new Case-Shiller house price index?What next for house prices?Prime mortgage credit loosening despite new lending rulesWhat is happening to mortgage lending?Survey evidence sheds light on homebuilder labour shortages
Slowing secondary house prices indices point the wayIs mortgage lending at a turning point?Positive signs on home sales and mortgage lendingToo early to call the end of the housing recoveryLower jumbo-conforming spread a positive for mortgage lendingWhat is the downside scenario for the housing market?Will mortgage demand recover this year?Is the growing market share of ARMs cause for concern?Why is homebuilding so low in States with rapidly rising prices?Will existing home sales follow new home sales upwards?
Foreclosure overhang weighing on New York and New JerseyHas the outlook for existing home sales changed?Is homebuilder confidence set for a weaker period?How serious is the threat to housing from the shutdown?New home prices set to slow by more than existing home pricesQRM proposals are a step towards looser mortgage creditWill MBS be tapered first or last and does it matter for housing?Are house prices increasing by less than the indices suggest?Fed likely to begin QE taper in SeptemberNew York City house price growth may slow
Easing cost pressures a further boost to homebuildersForeign buyers peripheral to housing recoveryHigher mortgage rates here to stayThe pace of house price gains is set to slowFed likely to begin QE taper in SeptemberHow concerned should we be about higher mortgage rates?Are inventory levels starting to normalise?Are mortgage credit conditions loosening?Homeownership rate likely to fall further yetFed appears less inclined to curb QE anytime soon
Talk of a US housing bubble is prematureLower yields will undermine investment case - but not this yearFed sticks with its QE plans for nowReturn of housing equity withdrawal here to stayLenders' capacity constraints still a brake on recoveryAre house prices gains in some States unsustainable?Should we be concerned that starts are outstripping sales?West to lead house price growth in 2013Fed swaps one hawk for anotherRebound in household formation to support rental market
Is mortgage demand picking up?What to make of the decline in the jumbo mortgage rate spread?Homebuilders benefiting from lower distressed supplyFed in wait and see mode ahead of electionA closer look at the presidential candidates’ housing plansNew-build premium starting to dropNAHB index overdoing the homebuilding recoveryHow positive is QE3 for housing?Fed launches open-ended QE3How concerning is the high contract cancellation rate?
Land values poised to recoverThe housing recovery has not run out of steam alreadyFed stands pat, but offers hint of further action soonAre lower mortgage rates supporting housing demand?Is negative equity a positive for the housing recovery?Is something amiss with seasonally adjusted house prices?Fed twists again, but no QE3 yetA stronger outlook for house prices?More homes built for rent to drive further fall in floor spaceForeclosure procedures offer clues to State-level outlook
Two leading indicators that reinforce price stabilisation pictureFed content to play waiting gameLumber prices don’t undermine case for construction recoveryPrincipal reductions useful, but no silver bulletHigher mortgage rates won’t extinguish the housing recoveryMake no mistake; the housing recovery is well underwayFed remains cautiousConflicting aims of REO and mortgage fee-raising policiesMulti-family starts will outperform again this yearRobo-signing settlement doesn't change the big picture
REO to rental programme could be the best housing fix so farFed's anticipates that rates are on hold until late 2014Obama retunes his HARPRobo-signing settlement will not be a game-changerEarly signs that mortgage credit conditions are looseningClash between Fed and Congress to limit action on housingThe end of the US housing downturnFed stands pat for nowShadow inventory to keep supply high for foreseeable futureFed in wait and see mode
Low demand constraining sales, not low supplyHouseholds less willing and less able to buyFed action will do little to boost economyWidening refinancing scheme won't help muchFHFA's new house price index still falls shortFed's longer low rate pledge won't change muchDon't fret over expected downward revisions to home salesLower loan limits won't be a disasterHomes at the low end of the market still most vulnerableFed biding its time
Outlook for condo prices not as bleakFed in no hurry to tighten policyFed likely to complete QE2 as plannedCash won't be king for foreverFour obstacles to housing finance reformHigher mortgage rates doing little to dent affordabilityFed biding its timeFed sticks to its gunsFed's Survey shows no evidence of loan reboundFed's QE2 is no game changer
QE2 still looks distantBernanke offers no hint of further stimulusFed on hold until 2012Fed on hold for some considerable timeFed no nearer to first rate hikeBernanke defends Fed's actionsFed holds steadyFed offers no hint of a change in policy