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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

US Economics Weekly

Aims to give the reader a snapshot view of both the current situation and the week ahead. It includes previews and forecasts of forthcoming events and data releases.

Sample - Stronger activity data increasingly hard to ignore

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Weakness of consumption not due to new health care rulesSlump in nominal business sales not a concernWeak first quarter won't stop the Fed hiking rates this yearRecovery in retail sales has a lot further to runFed tightening pace dependent on market reactionConstruction weakness due to seasonal adjustment failureRise (and fall) of the machinesDoes the Fed most fear a potential bond market rout?Corporate sector boosts its borrowingWhy haven’t households spent their gasoline windfall?
Fed positions itself for a June rate hikeDip into deflation will be briefOil price slump bad news for Texas and North DakotaMuted productivity growth holding back real wage gainsBig number of small winners > small number of big losersFed's patient approach at odds with incoming dataHow hard will the oil price slump hit mining investment?Market moves provide a further fillip to growthWhat we got right and wrong in 2014Small-cap equities may not lag behind for long
Odds of another government shutdown still fairly lowA bumper holiday shopping season in storeYen's collapse to have only modest impact on US economyExpansion of health insurance not boosting wider economyRising wage growth confirms labour slack is shrinkingStronger activity data increasingly hard to ignoreFed to complete QE taper with GDP growth still strongMarket moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing actDrop in yields and oil price trump higher dollarUS recovery relatively immune to global slowdown
Inflation outlook has not changedPrivate sector debt growth acceleratesRising dollar reflects economic strengthSpring of hope or winter of despair?Is Yellen’s new labour index any good?Recovery in small business lending to gather pacePlenty to talk about at Jackson HoleOutlook brighteningConsumption growth set to accelerateRisks surrounding Q2 GDP larger than normal
Business investment reboundsBusiness investment reboundsQuality of jobs being created is above averageSecond quarter ends on a high noteHealthcare spending weakness spills over into Q2Fed too complacent on inflationFed will focus on improving labour marketThe deleveraging process is largely overFalling Treasury yields a new conundrumBusinesses testing their pricing power
Economic outlook remains positiveBanks lending more freelyCan the recovery continue without housing?Economy shrugging off winter malaiseMarkets shouldn't place so much trust in the FedFarmland: Is the bubble bursting?No need to stress about the banksYellen wrong to downplay Fed's rate projectionsFed won’t ignore faster wage growthACA makes consumption look healthier
Fed needs to revise forward guidance soonCongress finally gives the economy some breathing roomIs the housing recovery crumbling?Five challenges for the new Fed ChairFed right to ignore emerging market turmoilA little help from overseasEconomic outlook brighteningEconomy will avoid a deep freezeNew Year optimism is justified this timeTapering was always going to be a damp squib
Strong pace of sales growth also supports QE taperEconomic growth gathering momentumCutting the IOER rate would be too riskyFed looking to change the mix rather than stance of policyBoost to spending from lower gasoline prices will be smallMoving the goal posts could dent the Fed's credibilityRecovery slowly gathering momentum as fiscal drag fadesWhat's behind the slowdown in jobs growth?New budget committee not necessarily DOACrunch time
Shutdown could continue until debt ceiling deadlineThis is no way to run a countryFed fails to understand that sometimes, less is moreLabour market still strengtheningFannie, Freddie and financial repressionGlobal developments unlikely to influence Fed taperingThreat from twin deficits begins to recedeDomestic demand is building momentumFurther pick-up in GDP growth expectedLabour market resilient to slowdown in GDP growth
Outlook improving for both retailers and industryQE3 tapering in September still a good betLimited economic impact from higher borrowing costsSlower Q2 GDP growth won't change the Fed's plansThe Fed’s tapering and rate hike timetableFed responding to improving economic outlookSignificant surge in Treasury yields is still unlikelyFears about student loans still look overdoneFed struggling to explain likely evolution of asset purchasesUS making progress on deficit reduction
Outlook for bank lending remains favourableFed won’t provide numerical thresholds for QE3Low inflation may concern the FedSlump in energy prices could provide much-needed boostWhat explains the annual spring swoon?Second quarter unlikely to be as good as the firstUS depositors unlikely to suffer same fate as CypriotsA domestically driven recoveryLabour market inflation pressures won't amount to muchRecovery picking up pace despite headwinds
Businesses shrugging off fiscal uncertaintyWill financial stability concerns force the Fed to curb QE3?Currency wars and cash hoarding concerns overblownSurge in gasoline prices comes at just the wrong timeAre we wrong to shrug off the fall in GDP?Republicans picking their battlesPayroll tax hike will curtail consumption growth$1trn coin not a realistic optionFight over debt ceiling likely to be even worseFiscal cliff end-game still in sight, maybe
Fed's thresholds don't alter policy stanceHouseholds still paying down debtConcerns over student loans overdoneRebound in house prices will reduce negative equityLower gasoline prices a timely boostFocus quickly shifts to fiscal cliff negotiationsBusinesses halt investment ahead of the fiscal cliffElection going down to the wireConsumption gaining some tractionImpact of QE3 already fading
Business investment stallsBurgeoning housing recovery won't transform GDP growthDebt deleveraging continuesAre things better than four years ago?Return to a gold standard neither practical nor desirableIs the fiscal cliff already dampening activity?Fiscal policy stuck between a rock and a hard placeUptick in incoming data not enough to sway the FedDrought a small, but unhelpful, drain on growthFed will do more, but QE3 is not the best option
Full nationalisation could be required to boost lendingRising dollar another drag on growthQE3 now a 50-50 callBernanke to take centre stageNo need to fear another recessionIndustry easing, but housing healingFed still reluctant to launch QE3Slowdown not that much of an exaggerationHouseholds snap up TreasuriesBanks benefiting from falling loan defaults