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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

US Economics Focus

Occasional “think pieces” on themes of current interest.

Sample - How do the US and UK monetary policy outlooks differ?

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Productivity growth held back by structural problemsDwindling spare capacity will provide boost to investmentMedical inflation is coming back to lifeFed will eventually have to hike rates more rapidlyDrop in participation rate more structural than cyclicalThe rising costs of QEIncome inequality is not holding the economy backCan America's debt problem be solved?Current account deficit unlikely to re-emerge as threatThinking about the new "new normal"
All you need to know about the Fed’s exit strategyField of dreams: Is farmland the next bubble?Further dip in core inflation won't prevent trimming of QE3America is not drowning in debtWill onshoring drive a manufacturing renaissance?State and local governments will partly offset Federal dragRising oil and gas production to have small impact on GDPRise in confidence never looked justified2013 – make or break?Will the US ever achieve energy independence?
Vehicle sales could drive faster GDP growthBank deleveraging behind the slump in financial flowsIs America a country of part-timers?Is QE3 a success after all?The fiscal cliff – some scenariosAre student loans the next bubble?Household deleveraging on trackDrop back in core inflation likely to be gradualWhat would trigger QE3?Labour's share of income to continue trending lower
Presidential election may make QE3 even less likelyCould a surge in dividends boost the economy?US will continue to outperformAre America’s fiscal prospects even worse than Europe’s?How would the US cope with a euro break-up?Housing will soon help the economy, but not by muchWhat explains the rebound in core inflation?Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis?Is QE3 coming?America may yet embrace trade protection
Poor quality of new jobs is an additional concernIs offshoring undermining the labour market recovery?Has the US really avoided its own lost decade?What do higher commodity prices mean for the US?Mismatching has raised the structural unemployment rateWould more QE do any good?Could the US inflate away its debtThe implications of Europe's sovereign debt crisis for the USThe hidden fiscal squeezeDeflation: Has the threat passed?
Is the contraction in bank credit a danger?A double-dip in house prices would not be a disasterAre the Fed's actions boosting asset prices?Housing to the rescue?What will be the implications of another jobless recovery?The macroeconomic implications of the lower dollarThe mother of all dead cat bouncesHousing recovery built on fundamentals, not the tax creditFall in potential growth unlikely to force Fed's handWill the fiscal crisis hold the US economy back?
Banks: From zeros to heroes (and possibly back again)The US could take years to recover from its debt hangoverHousing correction nearing the end, but it’s not over yetFalling wages would raise deflation threatWill the Fed's actions eventually lead to runaway inflation?Could a rebound in business investment drive the recovery?When will the conditions be in place for a US recovery?Credit restrictions may not prevent economic recoveryIs the US economy really emerging from recession?The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930s
Quantitative easing is now the Fed’s most potent weapon.Further capital losses to restrict US bank lendingThe road to deflation?The market implications of the US bank bailoutGSE bailout could wreck Federal budget, but worth the riskIs the US housing market stabilising?Why has the saving rate not rebounded more substantially?Financial losses from the consumer credit binge to reach $700bnHow much further will US house prices fall?Recession 2008: How deep, how long?
Will the policy stimulus rescue the US from recession?Corporate profits to fall sharply in 2008Will inflation spiral out of control as the Fed cuts rates?Are election years good for US stock markets?Can the trade deficit be resolved without a weaker dollar?Economic growth to slow further in 2008Fed's job likely to remain trickyEconomy enters period of rebalancingIs manufacturing on the road to recovery?Labour market to weaken in coming months
Rising correlation of riskier assets to depress bond yields furtherWhat does the sub-prime crisis mean for the wider economy?What would M3 be telling us now?Is it time to change our bearish views?What does slower labour force growth mean for Fed policy?Will inflation moderate as quickly as the Fed believes?Housing slump will have marked impact on consumptionThe implications of the mid-term electionsUS payrolls: past, present and futureHousing, inflation and the US economy (19/09/06)
Just how accurate are US statistics?How far will US bond yields fall?Consumer expectations point to slowdown in spendingIs the US slowdown still coming?The worrying truth about core inflationIs inflation back from the dead?How much should we worry about a weaker dollar?Dark matter in the wider universe: the role of tax ratesCommodity prices: current highs are not sustainableCan the Canadian dollar continue its ascent?
Will higher commodity prices fuel US inflation?Corporate profits set to slow sharplyHow much should we worry about US protectionism?The prospects for a switch to inflation targetting at the FedDemographics and the coming budget crisis - a contrarian viewBretton Woods III: the return of the oil exportersWhere will the housing slowdown hit hardest?Global asset prices at risk from higher Japanese ratesResource utilisation not yet a major concernForces are building for a fall in oil prices
Can business investment fend off a housing-led slowdown?Are US Bonds Over-valued?Do US workers offer value for money?The rising dollar – what’s driving it and will it continue?The coming US recessionThe bursting of the US property bubbleIs the labour market signalling higher inflation ahead?Is the US international income surplus real?What is it that US consumers are so desperate to have?US housing boom entering its final stages
What explains the decline in the savings rate?The outlook for corporate profitsUS & euro-zone productivity: the gap is growing againLies, damned lies, and hedonically adjusted US statisticsThe dollar’s fall will have little effect on inflationWhat will social security reform do for the economy?Why the US now looks condemned to sub-trend growthWhat is behind the poor performance of US wages?How big a problem is the US current account deficit?Will higher oil prices push the US into recession?
Quality of new jobs not as bad as fearedUS house price boom set to endUS rate outlook: Look to the 1960s not the 1990s