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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Markets Chart Book

Analyses developments in UK financial markets, including gilts, money markets, equities and the exchange rate, and puts them in an economic and historical context. Produced monthly.

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Sterling looks vulnerable to renewed fallsDemand for gilts weakens despite soft economic newsSterling vulnerable to renewed dollar weaknessMarkets underestimating potential election impactStrong pound masks emerging election concernsRate hike could still come sooner than markets thinkGilt yields hit new lows on growth, not deflation, concernsYields on Gilts and Treasuries continue to decoupleMPC may not wait as long as markets expectGilt yields grind lower despite UK economy’s momentum
Low inflation outlook pushes rates downMarkets unfazed by split MPC voteUK equities continue to underperformMarkets jolted by MPC’s new toneInflation Report stems rise in market interest ratesGilt yields defy strong economic newsUK equities still not benefiting from the economic recoveryNew guidance fails to refocus gilt market on UK outlookGilts shrug off falling unemploymentUK markets struggling to hear MPC's dovish message
US outlook still the key influence on gilt yieldsWorries about the US debt ceiling support gilts10-year gilt yields hit 3% as markets disregard guidanceForward guidance is already helping to anchor gilt yieldsOverseas developments continue to drive the gilt marketAsset prices tumble on fears of monetary tighteningEquities boosted by strong earnings seasonLower gilt yields underline safe-haven statusInflation concerns continue to buildSterling slides as safe-haven demand fades
UK equities rally despite struggling economyGilt market takes broken debt rule in its strideInvestors reassess QE outlookMarkets unimpressed by "green shoots"Safe-haven demand for UK assets easesGilt yields approach zero as euro-zone fears growGilt yields stay low as QE3 beginsDrop in gilt yields reflects more than safe-haven demandSafe haven demand pushes gilt yields to record lowsConfidence knocked by renewed euro-zone fears
Markets reassess QE outlookMore QE greeted with muted market reactionGrowth fears drive gilt yields lowerGilt yields fall further despite growing fiscal fearsUK recession risks weigh on marketsQE2 launch fails to boost UK marketsProspect of more stimulus fails to lift marketsRecovery fears spread from bonds to equitiesGilts yields fall on recovery fears and safe-haven demandMarket rates fall further as economic prospects sour
Rate expectations continue to fallMarkets reassess near-term outlook for interest ratesMarkets reassess recovery prospectsStagflation fears hold UK equities backInterest rate expectations ratchet higherMarkets reassess outlook for monetary policyRobust economic data boost market confidenceMarkets gear up for QE2Markets show mixed reaction to downbeat economic data (Sep 10)Markets shrug off mixed economic data (Aug 10)
Fitful data on UK recovery strains markets’ nerves (Jul 10)Markets shrug off hung parliament (Jun 10)Markets fail to buy into hung parliament “nightmare” (Apr 10)Central banks cut back on liquidity provisions (Mar 10)Weak recovery pushes interest rates lower (Feb 10)Markets misjudge the interest rate outlook (Jan 10)Fiscal concerns trouble bond markets (Dec 09)Bounce in gilt yields may not last (Nov 09)Real yields take a dive (Oct 09)Improved liquidity conditions underpin credit markets (Sep 09)
Corporate bond spreads continue to tighten (Aug 09)Markets shrug off delay to expansion of QE (Jul 09)Risk appetite continues to grow (Jun 09)Corporate bond spreads grind tighter (May 09)Outlook still favourable for gilts (Apr 09)Quantitative easing makes its mark (Mar 09)Gilts poised to rally further on adoption of QE (Feb 09)Spike in bond yields should not last (Jan 09)Bond yields plunge (Dec 08)MPC takes a bold step (Nov 08)
Muted response to bank recapitalisation (Oct 08)Market rates fail to respond to US GSE bailout (Sep 08)Markets still distorted one year on from the credit crunch (Aug 08)Markets wake up to the economic gloom (Jul 08)Attention shifts from activity to inflation (Jun 08)Bond markets spooked by inflation (May 08)Bank to do more to unblock the money markets (Apr 08)Bond market is priced for recession (Mar-08)The slower rates are cut, the further they will fall (Feb-08)Money markets move back towards normal (Jan 08)
Central banks losing control over monetary conditions (Dec 07)Stagflation in the markets? (Nov 07)Liquidity concerns linger (Oct-07)Money market mayhem (Sep 07)Markets rocked by rise in sub-prime mortgage concerns (Aug 07)Markets remain focused on inflation (Jul 07)UK markets caught up in global adjustment (Jun 07)Risk that UK rates hit 6% grows (May 07)Market interest rate expectations ratchet higher (Apr 07)Markets start to think about lower rates further ahead (Mar 07)
Market interest rates may have peaked (Feb 07)The markets build in two more rate hikes (Jan 07)US slowdown weighs on UK market rates (Dec 06)Market expectations of another rate hike look right (Nov 06)Falling oil prices drive long bond yields lower (Oct 06)Markets reduce there expectations for rates next year (Sep 06)UK rates head higher along the curve (Aug 06)UK markets buck the global trend (Jul 06)Curves flatten as markets start to fear policy overload (Jun 06)Markets price in a full rate hike (May 06)
Global forces push UK market rates higher (Apr 06)Markets scale back rate cut expectations (Mar 06)UK interest rates buck the upward global trend (Feb 06)Long yields fall to 50 year lows (Jan 06)UK rate expectations buck the falling global trend (Dec 05)Markets price out further rate cuts…for now (Nov 05)Markets start to build in another rate cut (Oct 05)Katrina forces market interest rates lower (Sep 05)Markets scale back rate cut expectations (Aug 05)The markets take terrorism in their stride (Jul 05)
Markets shrug off the EU Constitution, but not Greenspan (Jun 05)Government bonds win while corporate bonds lose (May 05)