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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Economics Weekly

Aims to give the reader a snapshot view of both the current situation and the week ahead. It includes previews and forecasts of forthcoming events and data releases.

Sample - Maradona Carney turns full circle

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Four fiscal fragilities could emerge in timeWhat does the Chancellor have up his sleeve?Could good deflation turn bad?Are the MPC’s new forecasts plausible?Inflation Report set to reaffirm low rate outlookCooling housing market won’t freeze the recoveryConsumers to remain upbeat despite asset price fallsReal wages to provide timely support to the recoveryIs the FTSE’s fall signalling a slowdown?Is the recovery running out of steam?
Take fiscal pledges with a pinch of saltPost-referendum relief rally falls flatWill sterling take the low road?GDP overhaul merely tweaks the big pictureUK better placed to weather another euro-zone stormWill the rebels muster a majority soon?Deciphering the pay puzzleWeaker pound not a panacea for rebalancingIs a fiscal crisis quietly brewing?Is the worst over for pay?
Will the stronger pound stay the MPC’s hand?Will the construction recovery continue to build?Has the FPC done enough?Maradona Carney turns full circleMPC still likely to tread cautiouslyWhat has the ECB done for us?Are gilts priced for a slowdown?Is the MPC's view on slack still plausible?Low inflation and the FPC should keep rates downHousing bears shouldn't scare Goldilocks away
Sterling's strength should not derail the recoveryThe makers march onProductivity cloud should lift in timeInflation still on track for 1%Strong growth should finance Mr Osborne's gamblesWill Mr Osborne try to buy credit for the recovery?Will the housing market force the MPC to act?Can the recovery withstand the stronger pound?Low inflation should ease output gap dangersAll change again for the Inflation Report?
News on productivity may brighten this yearFarewell forward guidance?Will car sales shift the recovery up a gear?Will the good news keep coming in 2014?Is wage growth about to pick up?Is the OBR too gloomy?Will the UK economy continue to outperform?Coalition still struggling to take credit for recoveryInflation Report could raise rate expectationsThreat to recovery from energy prices overplayed
GDP still on track for a strong Q3Fiscal rules could be tightened furtherHas the recovery lost its balance?US Fed helps out Mr CarneyAre we really a nation of estate agents?Is the recovery too reliant on the housing market?What's driving the recovery?Markets get over-excited by labour market newsRates to stay on hold for three years (probably)Will the euphoria spur on the recovery?
MPC changes policy mix, not directionSterling back in the spotlightReasons mount for Carney to act swiftlyRise in gilt yields supports case for more QERise in rate expectations boosts case for guidanceStill plenty of scope for Carney to actInflation Report may not impede further actionTriple dip debate distracts from dismal big pictureAre consumers waking up?Budget leaves dismal growth outlook unchanged
Poor data piles further Budget pressure on ChancellorPolicymakers deny economy more supportMore QE still worth a shotMPC passes the batonInflation Report to show nastier inflation pictureWhy has sterling taken a pounding?Crunch time for the GovernmentIs the EU uncertainty hurting the economy?Mixed report card for the GovernmentBrighter start to new year unlikely to last
2013 to bring more of the sameThe Chancellor’s problems aren’t overQE still at the top of the toolboxThe shine wears offTentative signs the lending scheme is workingKing rules out more unconventional stepsA fiscal red herringIMF gives Chancellor some wiggle roomWeak signals in Q3Should we be worried about the current account deficit?
Beware the thorns among the green shootsIs the worst over for exporters?Plan for growth still falls shortSqueeze on real incomes to last even longerFiscal dilemma intensifiesGDP revision won’t change big pictureNo gold medal for the economyFull nationalisation could be required to boost lendingMassive revision needed to alter the big pictureOlympics explains part of the employment puzzle
Jubilee boost masks weaker pictureEvidence pointing to a poor Q2Inflation outlook improves furtherEncouraging news on core inflationWill throwing money at the banks help?One swallow does not a summer makeA 'knees-up' for the economy?Too early to declare victory over core inflationEuro-zone threat intensifiesInflation Report to show MPC in wait and see mode
A tricky decision for the MPCWorst recovery for 100 yearsMPC wrong to dismiss weak output figuresSterling’s rise clouds export outlookGDP figures may dash recovery optimismCan consumers continue to support growth?Enormous fiscal squeeze still lies aheadGilt market retains faith in OsborneSavers’ plight won’t move the MPCKing fends off pressure to follow ECB
Chancellor unlikely to start splashing some cashRise in energy prices won't stop inflation fallingQE unlikely to be nearing an endShould the MPC follow the ECB’s example?Contraction unlikely to be just a blipUK’s safe-haven status remains securePension funds hit by fall in bond yieldsIs the recovery getting back on track?What does 2012 hold in store?UK unlikely to be first in line for a downgrade
Are retailers facing a nightmare before Christmas?The Chancellor’s straitjacket could get tighterCredit easing an important step, but no quick fixIs the euro-zone really to blame?Risks from euro-zone intensifyFrom stagnation to contractionRebalancing knocked off courseCore inflation should soon start to easeIs the labour market now capitulating?QE worth a try, but communication is vital
Weak demand is the real fiscal threatSome encouraging signs on inflationMPC unlikely to wait for longLack of lending will continue to hinder recoveryIs the manufacturing sector past the worst?Is the UK on the ratings hit-list?Market mayhem sets gloomy backdrop for Inflation ReportAfter the weak Q2, a poor start to Q3Stress tests underline banking sector fragilityEuro-zone crisis casts cloud over UK