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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Economics Weekly

Aims to give the reader a snapshot view of both the current situation and the week ahead. It includes previews and forecasts of forthcoming events and data releases.

Sample - Budget leaves dismal growth outlook unchanged

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Farewell forward guidance?Will car sales shift the recovery up a gear?Will the good news keep coming in 2014?Is wage growth about to pick up?Is the OBR too gloomy?Will the UK economy continue to outperform?Coalition still struggling to take credit for recoveryInflation Report could raise rate expectationsThreat to recovery from energy prices overplayedGDP still on track for a strong Q3
Fiscal rules could be tightened furtherHas the recovery lost its balance?US Fed helps out Mr CarneyAre we really a nation of estate agents?Is the recovery too reliant on the housing market?What's driving the recovery?Markets get over-excited by labour market newsRates to stay on hold for three years (probably)Will the euphoria spur on the recovery?MPC changes policy mix, not direction
Sterling back in the spotlightReasons mount for Carney to act swiftlyRise in gilt yields supports case for more QERise in rate expectations boosts case for guidanceStill plenty of scope for Carney to actInflation Report may not impede further actionTriple dip debate distracts from dismal big pictureAre consumers waking up?Budget leaves dismal growth outlook unchangedPoor data piles further Budget pressure on Chancellor
Policymakers deny economy more supportMore QE still worth a shotMPC passes the batonInflation Report to show nastier inflation pictureWhy has sterling taken a pounding?Crunch time for the GovernmentIs the EU uncertainty hurting the economy?Mixed report card for the GovernmentBrighter start to new year unlikely to last2013 to bring more of the same
The Chancellor’s problems aren’t overQE still at the top of the toolboxThe shine wears offTentative signs the lending scheme is workingKing rules out more unconventional stepsA fiscal red herringIMF gives Chancellor some wiggle roomWeak signals in Q3Should we be worried about the current account deficit?Beware the thorns among the green shoots
Is the worst over for exporters?Plan for growth still falls shortSqueeze on real incomes to last even longerFiscal dilemma intensifiesGDP revision won’t change big pictureNo gold medal for the economyFull nationalisation could be required to boost lendingMassive revision needed to alter the big pictureOlympics explains part of the employment puzzleJubilee boost masks weaker picture
Evidence pointing to a poor Q2Inflation outlook improves furtherEncouraging news on core inflationWill throwing money at the banks help?One swallow does not a summer makeA 'knees-up' for the economy?Too early to declare victory over core inflationEuro-zone threat intensifiesInflation Report to show MPC in wait and see modeA tricky decision for the MPC
Worst recovery for 100 yearsMPC wrong to dismiss weak output figuresSterling’s rise clouds export outlookGDP figures may dash recovery optimismCan consumers continue to support growth?Enormous fiscal squeeze still lies aheadGilt market retains faith in OsborneSavers’ plight won’t move the MPCKing fends off pressure to follow ECBChancellor unlikely to start splashing some cash
Rise in energy prices won't stop inflation fallingQE unlikely to be nearing an endShould the MPC follow the ECB’s example?Contraction unlikely to be just a blipUK’s safe-haven status remains securePension funds hit by fall in bond yieldsIs the recovery getting back on track?What does 2012 hold in store?UK unlikely to be first in line for a downgradeAre retailers facing a nightmare before Christmas?
The Chancellor’s straitjacket could get tighterCredit easing an important step, but no quick fixIs the euro-zone really to blame?Risks from euro-zone intensifyFrom stagnation to contractionRebalancing knocked off courseCore inflation should soon start to easeIs the labour market now capitulating?QE worth a try, but communication is vitalWeak demand is the real fiscal threat
Some encouraging signs on inflationMPC unlikely to wait for longLack of lending will continue to hinder recoveryIs the manufacturing sector past the worst?Is the UK on the ratings hit-list?Market mayhem sets gloomy backdrop for Inflation ReportAfter the weak Q2, a poor start to Q3Stress tests underline banking sector fragilityEuro-zone crisis casts cloud over UKWeak Q2 due to more than just temporary factors
Tough times on the high streetSagging tax receipts put cracks in Plan AUK escapes Greek contagion fearsBetween a rock and a hard placeEven the industrial recovery hits the rocksRe-balancing in the extremeConsumer outlook still poorInflation to fall further next year than MPC expectsInflation Report could reinforce drop in rate expectationsRecovery, what recovery?
Royal Wedding adds to economic uncertaintyInflation drop gives MPC some breathing spaceWill Q1 disappoint?Slow progress on re-balancingOBR unwise to bank on strong demandBudget could further ease rate fearsEvidence of consumer slowdown mountingOil price rise comes at a bad timeWho else might join the MPC's hawks?Near-term rate outlook still finely balanced
Will the Inflation Report open the door to a rate hike?Optimism about the recovery could prove prematureThe Government needs a back-up planSterling threat will help to keep rates lowUK not alone in seeing inflation fears riseHas the recovery really ground to a halt?Don't write off the high street yetIs the MPC's credibility really in danger?Industrial recovery won't save the economyAn early Christmas present for Mr. Osborne
Euro-zone crisis threatens UK export prospectsGilts' inflation jitters will ease in timeRenewed rise in inflation needn't rule out QE2MPC will follow the Fed before longRecovery unlikely to maintain recent paceSpending Review has not lessened the fiscal painSpending Review to deepen the gloomGrowth set to slow next yearFalling saving can't sustain the consumer recoveryFiscal strains yet to ease