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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Housing Market Focus

Occasional “think pieces” on themes of current interest.

Sample - The outlook for mortgage interest rate spreads

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Why is the stock of homes for sale so low?Can the link between housing starts and sales be recalibrated?Are high construction costs holding back housebuilding?Has the housing boom run its course?Are homeowners more sensitive to rising rates than in the past?The outlook for mortgage interest rate spreadsAre the housing market's warning lights flashing?Can the Financial Policy Committee cool the housing market?What will the pension changes mean for the housing market?Why are so few homes being put up for sale?
Is the housing market in a new bubble?Will Mark Carney need to rein in the housing market?Why are mortgage repayments on the rise?Will the housing market give consumers a boost?Will mortgage guarantees be as successful as equity loans?Will the Government get the housing market going?Why do estimates of the average house price differ?Is a mansion tax a good idea?Can the UK build its way to a recovery?The outlook for buy-to-let in 2013
Autumn Statement 2012: More of the sameWhen will the UK housing market turn the corner?Autumn Statement 2012 PreviewCould a surge in housebuilding lead to a house price crash?Where next for the new-build premium?Will the euro-zone crisis undermine London property values?How will UK property markets fare in 2012?Why housing equity amplifies, not smoothes, the house price cycleWill there be a shortage of buy-to-let lending?Permission-free conversions: a watershed proposal?
Borrowers more exposed than ever to rising ratesBudget 2011: Still banking on Plan AWill institutional investment in housing increase?Will central London property be immune from further falls?Is the housing market heading for a double-dip?Will arrears and possessions increase to US levels?The FSA's responsible lending proposals; "a step too far"?How much bigger will the private rented sector get?Will detached prices outperform because of tight credit?Is UK mortgage affordability worse than other countries?
Have there been previous double-dips in house prices?The outlook for house prices in the North WestProperty in the new ParliamentEmergency Budget 2010: Tough but tenderHave households accelerated their mortgage repayments?Will lower net migration push rents lower?Budget 2010Recovery or relapse in the housing market?What does the future hold for Scottish house prices?Pre-Budget Report 2009
Recent house price rises lack a firm foundationWhich type of property will experience the largest falls?Is the rise in buyer interest enough to trigger a recovery?What are auction prices telling us?What is the fair value level for house prices?Mortgage arrears and possessions to rise to a record highWhat is the outlook for new-build prices?How important is the City for London’s housing market?How far will global house prices fall?A rapid fall in house prices will minimise the pain
More people set to share homes as house prices fallHouse prices to fall by 35%How far will new housing supply fall?The outlook for household savingsThe demand for second homes is set to plummetThe outlook for residential rentsThe re-emergence of hidden housing supply is set to worsen the housing market downturnAffordability – why it has never been worseHas easy credit been driving house prices?Have buy-to-let investors priced out first-time buyers?
How far will house prices fall?What are the house-builders’ share prices telling us?Why is housing turnover so low?Will the new capital gains tax rules affect buy-to-let?House prices: the UK will be nextIs low social housing provision boosting private tenant demand?Why is the US housing market weak but the UK's not?Is immigration's impact on the housing market still small?Housing effects of fixed rate mortgagesIs residential land overvalued?
Will home-ownership aspirations undermine BTL?UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time?UK Budget 2007 - Robbing Peter to pay PeterHow poor is mortgage affordability?The outlook for buy-to-let returnsThe outlook for mortgage lending spreadsImpact of a rate rise on the housing marketThe long run outlook for house price inflationPersistent regional house price differentials?Budget 2006: Implications for property
The influence of house prices on house buildingWhat are the economic drivers of private residential rents?How far has immigration boosted house prices?Size versus quality - is house price data systematically biased?Affordability takes centre stageThe outlook for mortgage possessionsHas the housing market turned a corner?Where next for housing transactions? Searching for clues.The outlook for rental demand looks brightWhich house price data should we believe?
SIPPs will not generate a new property investment boomDo lower housing transactions explain the consumer slowdown?Is the house price adjustment underway?What are the principal economic drivers of house prices?House price inflation – the record over the longer termWill REITs boost housing supply?House prices – built on shaky foundationsDoes buy-to-let hold the key to the house price outlook?Can rising income inequality explain high house pricesHigher interest rates will have a sting in the tail
Can house prices fall without a rise in unemployment?Soft landing? Evidence from Irish and Dutch house pricesSpotting the warning signs of a housing market slowdownCan high employment justify current high house prices?Is buy-to-let filling the first time buyer gap?The Miles Review – a permissive not prescriptive approachHousing undersupply – don’t blame the house buildersHigher education and the demand for private rented accommodationThe impact of demographic change on the long-run demand for housingTalk of CGT on primary residences is likely to remain just talk
House price indices – cutting through the confusionThe housing market is set to fallIs the buy-to-let market the next bubble to burst?Property tax – the worst is yet to come….Should the property industry be worried about a further increase in stamp duty?