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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Economics Focus

Occasional “think pieces” on themes of current interest.

Sample - Budget 2013: Steady as she goes – aground

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Articles
Budget 2014: Mr Osborne keeps the shackles in placeBudget 2014 PreviewWill onshoring boost the recovery?Will policy help or hinder the recovery?Is low inflation back for good?Can the economy rebalance?Growth in workforce will help keep interest rates downAutumn Statement 2013: Mr Osborne sticks to the pathAutumn Statement 2013 PreviewToo low for too long?
Have households fixed their balance sheets?Is the income squeeze nearly over?Will unemployment fall sooner than the MPC thinks?Are the makers on the march?Can the recovery continue without bank lending?Will consumers drive a recovery after all?Can Carney save the day?Will the Government get the housing market going?Is the UK turning Japanese?Why have we been wrong on inflation?
Is the economy as strong as the jobs figures suggest?Budget 2013: Steady as she goes – agroundTime to tackle the pound?Budget 2013 PreviewCan the UK build its way to a recovery?Are the Government’s fiscal plans crumbling?Will inflation throw another spanner in the works?Monetary policy in fluxCan companies get the recovery going?What would Scottish independence mean for the remaining UK?
Central London no bellwether for rest of UKAutumn Statement 2012: More of the sameAutumn Statement 2012 PreviewIs consumer spending facing a lost decade?Nominal GDP target not a silver bulletIs the output gap a crack or a chasm?Are the fiscal rules about to be broken?The implications of the proposed inflation reformsDo recessions damage supply? Some historical evidencePolicy dilemmas – growth versus austerity
How will firms and households fare?Will the euro-zone crisis undermine London property values?Would more QE do any good?Is the household saving adjustment complete?Fiscal challenges to remain beyond current squeezeCould the Olympic flame reignite the recovery?Is household debt a problem?Will productivity growth ever recover?Budget 2012: Not rocking the boatBudget 2012 Preview
Why is the UK lagging behind?How will UK property markets fare in 2012?What more can the policymakers do?Will falling inflation come to the rescue?Just how hard will the euro crisis hit the UK?What should we expect from QE2?Autumn Statement 2011The Chancellor’s hands are tiedWill retail spending prove resilient again?Does the Government need a Plan B?
Can consumers stand the pressure?Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis?Could the recovery cope with a rate rise?Budget 2011: Still banking on Plan ABudget 2011 PreviewKeeping an eye on the 2011 pay roundCan the resilience of corporate profits last?Is GDP higher than we think?Is the housing market heading for a double-dip?Will inflation ever fall back?
Can the economy continue to recover?Housing downturn another blow for consumer spendingCan the spending cuts actually be achieved?Will tighter regulation prevent a recovery in lending?Is QE finally working?Fiscal squeeze to slam the brakes on consumer spendingPolicy challenges for the new UK GovernmentEmergency Budget 2010: Tough but tenderEmergency Budget PreviewCan private sector hiring offset public sector job cuts?
Indebtedness not a big problem for the corporate sectorCould we be wrong about inflation?UK Election Preview - The phoney fiscal debateBudget 2010 - Still putting off the inevitableBudget 2010 Preview - A holding operationQE a year onAs many Eastern Europeans going as comingWill the UK catch up in the global recovery?How will the election influence economic policy?Pre-Budget Report 2009 - Still waiting for the axe to fall
How will consumers fare in the fiscal squeeze?Pre-Budget Report 2009 Preview - Going for broke?UK faces a decade of high unemploymentThe VAT threat to consumer spendingSpare capacity could yet turn inflation negativeFrom banking crisis to fiscal crisis?Could the UK have a creditless recovery?Bank lending still set to fall well shortRecent house price rises lack a firm foundationCan investment drive the recovery?
How do we get out of this fiscal mess?The hardest part of QE is yet to comeHow will the policymakers respond to recovery?Why is UK retail spending so strong?Is the lower pound already helping?Pay cuts intensify deflation dangerCan the UK make the most of the lower pound?Budget 2009 - The tip of the icebergWhich parts of consumer spending will recover first?Budget 2009 Preview - The great borrowing binge goes on
Just how deep is this fiscal mess?Lending measures will not fill the holeWill the lower pound stave off deflation?Drag from stockbuilding to easeConsumer spending rebound unlikely to lastThe pros and cons of bank nationalisationCan pay freezes prevent further job losses?The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930sWhat more can policymakers do?Much bolder action required to boost bank lending
How to spot a recovery – the evidence from past recessionsWill quantitative easing work?Life insurers better placed than the banksPre-Budget Report 2008Falling inflation won't prevent consumer slump.Pre-Budget Report 2008 – PreviewThe rebirth of deflationHow far will global house prices fall?The road to deflation?Durable consumer goods to be hit the hardest
Lower trend growth won’t stop inflation fallingDrop in bank lending to prompt economy to contract in 2009The shape of recessions pastDent to bank capital to restrict lending growthA double whammy for retail revenuesHow will companies fare this time?House prices to fall by 35%Just how high could inflation get?Who will drive the spending slowdown?The outlook for household savings
Housing equity withdrawal to grind to a haltThe economic damage from the other property crashAre inflation expectations really so important?Consumer dangers just as great in the UKUK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the best!Caught between a Rock...How hard will the credit crisis hit the City?Just how bad could the public finances get?Unemployment to hit ten-year highHas manufacturing really reinvented itself?