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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Consumer Monthly

Gives a round-up of the latest news on the sector and how this fits in with our analysis of the forces acting upon consumer spending.

Sample - Consumers continue to benefit from easing inflation

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Recovery in spending temporarily slowsOutlook for real pay continues to brightenReal pay growth back to pre-crisis ratesSpending still on track for strongest growth since 2005Confidence not dented by election uncertaintyZero inflation boosts consumers’ spending powerRetail sales recovery to remain robustRecovery set to strengthen in 2015Lower oil prices grease the wheels of recoveryEnd of real wage squeeze boosts spending
Consumers continue to benefit from easing inflationConsumers remain confident despite pay squeezeSpending growth strong despite weak earningsStrong Q2 growth likely to be sustainedRapid jobs gains fuel spending growthMargins remain under pressureRising real pay boosts consumer recoveryConsumers have a spring in their stepStrong spending recovery still underway2013 ends on a reasonably positive note
Consumers continue to spend cautiouslyRecovery continues, but no consumer boomIncome squeeze not stopping people from spendingConsumer recovery still looking goodFeel-good factor buoys spendingConsumer spending remains on the upSharing in the recoveryNascent recovery begins to witherLabour market weakness set to undermine spendingPick-up in spending will be difficult to sustain
Real pay to fall for longerA lacklustre festive seasonRetailers losing their nerveReal pay prospects deteriorateRenewed income squeeze loomsSpending likely to have grown in Q3Olympics to help sales maintain momentumJubilee boost short-livedSpending remains volatileSpending recovery runs out of steam
Consumer spending remains resilientConsumer recovery underway, but looking fragileFalling inflation offers some reliefA stronger end to the yearA soft start to the festive periodLabour market downturn worsensSqueeze on real pay intensifiesFalling employment intensifies consumers’ miseryConsumer spending outlook darkensFalling real pay taking its toll
Consumer sector back in recessionTemporarily betterEaster muddles the pictureSpending slowdown seems underwayPost snow bounce-back unlikely to lastConsumers battle against rising VAT and inflationA reasonable end to the year in prospectFitful recovery continues (Nov 10)Recovery built on shaky foundations (Oct 10)Pressures mounting (Sep 10)
Weakening in wider economy yet to hit high street (Aug 10)High street holding up for now (Jul 10)Confidence wavers as fiscal squeeze looms (Jun 10)Consumer spending fragile ahead of fiscal squeeze (May 10)Consumers fight off pre-election jitters (Apr 10)Bounce-back from snow may be short-lived (Mar 10)Recovery struggling to maintain momentum (Feb-10)A reasonable end to last year (Jan 10)Still time for an end-of-year surge (Dec 09)Heading for a strong end to the year (Nov 09)
Mixed messages on high street spending (Oct 09)Rising car sales of limited help to overall spending (Sep 09)Gradual improvement continues (Aug 09)Improvement continues, but from weak starting point (Jul 09)High street's resilience starting to fade? (Jun 09)More than just an Easter boost (May 09)High street resilient, but weakness persists elsewhere (Apr 09)New year rebound fading fast (Mar 09)New year resilience unlikely to last (Feb 09)Christmas not as bad as feared (Jan 09)
Price cuts fail to get consumers spending (Dec 08)Retailers resort to price cuts as spending slows (Nov 08)Recession underway (Oct 08)Treat the official retail sales data with caution (Sep 08)Retail sales volatile, but levelling off (Aug 08)High street spending looking unambiguously weak (Jul 08)Consumers keep spending against all odds (Jun 08)Official sales data still implausibly strong (May 08)Mixed messages about high street demand (Apr 08)Consumers hang on to the last (Mar 08)
Retail sales start the year on a strong note (Feb 08)Has the spending slowdown arrived? (Jan 08)Consumer resilience to disappear come the new year (Dec 07)Tentative signs of a slowdown (Nov 07)Price cuts keep consumers spending (Oct 07)Lower prices continue to stimulate shoppers' interest (Sep 07)Sales strong despite wet weather (Aug 07)Food sales bear brunt of wet weather. (Jul 07)Higher interest rates still having a limited effect. (Jun 07)Too early to tell if higher interest rates are biting. (May 07)
Consumers still unfazed by higher interest rates (Apr 07)Firm trend underlies monthly volatility. (Mar 07)January pay-back for end of year spending surge. (Feb 07)A good Christmas for the high street. (Jan 07)Surprisingly good start to the festive season (Dec 06)Crucial Q4 period off to a good start (Nov 06)Retail sales growth loses some momentum (Oct 06)Retail sales growth still solid. (Sep 06)Trend in retail sales robust despite July’s fall. (Aug 06)Recovery in retail sales growth continues (Jul 06)
World Cup boost to retail sales (Jun 06)A good Easter for retailers (May 06)Retail sales drag down total spending growth (Apr 06)Household spending growth to weaken in Q1 (Mar 06)Christmas spending revival looks temporary (Feb 06)Spending finishes 2005 on a high note (Jan 06)Christmas shopping starts off well (Dec 05)Retail slowdown might be past the worst (Nov 05)High street shows some signs of life (Oct 05)Non-retail spending has weakened too (Sep 05)
Trend in retail sales remains soft (Aug 05)Sales rebound does not signal renewed upturn in spending (Jul 05)High street slowdown spreads to consumer services (Jun 05)No sign of the slowdown abating (May 05)Consumers continue to shun the high street (Apr 05)Retail sales on a weakening trend (Mar 05)Festive spending disappoints (Feb 05)Mixed messages on Christmas spending (Jan 05)