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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Consumer Focus

Occasional “think pieces” on themes of current interest.

Sample - Budget 2013: Steady as she goes – aground

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Articles
Budget 2014: Mr Osborne keeps the shackles in placeCan the economy rebalance?Autumn Statement 2013: Mr Osborne sticks to the pathSector insight: leisureHave households fixed their balance sheets?Is the income squeeze nearly over?Will the housing market give consumers a boost?Can retailers rebuild their margins?Will consumers drive a recovery after all?Sector insight: clothing
Opportunities and challenges from the "grey pound"Budget 2013: Steady as she goes – agroundBudget 2013 PreviewWill inflation throw another spanner in the works?Consumer spending in London will continue to outperformCentral London no bellwether for rest of UKAutumn Statement 2012: More of the sameProspects for different types of spending and consumersAutumn Statement 2012 PreviewAre retailers’ cost pressures past their worst?
Is consumer spending facing a lost decade?Sector insight: pubs & restaurantsSector insight: foodOur forecasts for types of consumer spendingWill the euro-zone crisis undermine London property values?Is the household saving adjustment complete?Could the Olympic flame reignite the recovery?Is household debt a problem?Budget 2012: Not rocking the boatBudget 2012 Preview
Why is the UK lagging behind?How will UK property markets fare in 2012?Autumn Statement 2011The Chancellor’s hands are tiedWill retail spending prove resilient again?Can consumers stand the pressure?Could the recovery cope with a rate rise?Budget 2011: Still banking on Plan AKeeping an eye on the 2011 pay roundIs the housing market heading for a double-dip?
Can the economy continue to recover?Housing downturn another blow for consumer spendingFiscal squeeze to slam the brakes on consumer spendingPolicy challenges for the new GovernmentEmergency Budget 2010: Tough but tenderEmergency Budget PreviewCan private sector hiring offset public sector job cuts?UK Election Preview - The phoney fiscal debateBudget 2010 - Still putting off the inevitableBudget 2010 Preview - A holding operation
As many Eastern Europeans going as comingWill the UK catch up in the global recovery?Pre-Budget Report 2009 - Still waiting for the axe to fallHow will consumers fare in the fiscal squeeze?Pre-Budget Report 2009 Preview - Going for broke?UK faces a decade of high unemploymentThe VAT threat to consumer spendingCould the UK have a creditless recovery?Bank lending still set to fall well shortRecent house price rises lack a firm foundation
Recent house price rises lack a firm foundationWhy is UK retail spending so strong?Pay cuts intensify deflation dangerBudget 2009 - The tip of the icebergWhich parts of consumer spending will recover first?Budget 2009 Preview - The great borrowing binge goes onDrag from stockbuilding to easeConsumer spending rebound unlikely to lastCan pay freezes prevent further job losses?How to spot a recovery – the evidence from past recessions
Falling inflation won't prevent consumer slump.Durable consumer goods to be hit the hardestA double whammy for retail revenuesWho will drive the spending slowdown?The outlook for household savingsHousing equity withdrawal to grind to a haltConsumer dangers just as great in the UKUK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the best!Caught between a Rock...Unemployment to hit ten-year high
The final blow for consumers?MPC may be too sanguine about housing againMPC may need to let high street spending slumpUK Pre-Budget Report Preview - A pre-election splash?Is household saving really as low as it looks?Resilient housing market could delay spending slowdown.What will 6% interest rates do to the economy?Employment growth to pick up as profits recoverRecord low saving threatens spending outlookHas the wages threat passed?
Have fixed rate mortgages changed the housing market?UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time?UK Budget 2007 - Robbing Peter to pay PeterFalling inflation to offset drag on spending from rate risesBudget 2007 PreviewA timetable for the 2007 pay roundUK spending's no fun anymoreSubdued income growth to limit spending recoveryHow far can retailers widen their margins?Endowment shortfalls - another drag on consumer spending?
Saving for old age presents a long-term threat to spendingAre UK households saving at all?Budget 2006Outlook still weak for household goods salesBudget 2006 PreviewStrong demand for retail floorspace unlikely to persistHigher tax-take weighs down on householdsThe consumer confidence conundrumHousehold debt goes badHigher savings still the key threat to household spending
Lower interest rates may not kick-start spendingTen steps to a weakening labour marketHousehold incomes feel the pinchLong term trends in consumer spendingBudget 2005 PreviewMPC may be too sanguine on link between housing & spending