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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Consumer Analyst

A quarterly document which examines the forces acting on consumer finances and consumer spending, and how likely economic developments will affect the various categories of spending. It is produced quarterly.

Sample - Real income revival to spur recovery

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Recovery unlikely to slow sharply next yearHouseholds well-placed to endure renewed fiscal squeezeFall in energy prices to keep consumer recovery goingReal income revival to spur recoveryRecovery to maintain pace despite headwindsRecovery built on solid foundationsSpending recovery looks sustainableSpending outlook brightensFragile recovery finally underwayThe squeeze continues
Another tough year to get throughRecovery remains just out of reachReal pay finally to start risingRecovery in sight, but more pain to come firstSqueeze on real pay to ease this yearHeading back into recessionSqueeze on real pay to worsenSpending to fall both this year and nextA toxic mix for incomesConsumer spending heading for a double dip (Q4 2010)
Spending will struggle to grow during fiscal squeeze (Q3 2010)Sweet spot is disappearing (Q2 10)Near-term momentum to fade as the year progresses (Q1 10)Sluggish recovery ahead (Q4 09)Retail to suffer renewed period of weakness (Q3 09)Labour market to restrain recovery in real household income (Q2 09)Passing on higher import costs may prove impossible (Q1 09)Consumer slump lies ahead (Q4 08)Consumer sector heads for recession (Q3 08)Several years of sluggish spending ahead (Q2 08)
Households face a double whammy (Q1 08)Tighter lending conditions to exacerbate the housing slowdown (Q4 07)Higher interest rates to push up the saving rate (Q3 07)Higher interest rates to constrain the spending recovery (Q2 07)Support from the housing market to fade (Q1 07)The housing market to the rescue? (Q4 06)Higher saving to keep a check on spending growth (Q3 06)Housing recovery unlikely to boost spending (Q2 06)Spending slowdown has longer to run (Q1 06)Spending slowdown well entrenched (Q4 05)
High street slowdown to spread to consumer services (Q3 05)Recent spending slowdown to prove sustained (Q2 05)Consumer spending to slow (Q1 05)