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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Commercial Property Focus

Occasional “think pieces” on themes of current interest.

Sample - Are supermarket property returns past their best?

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How big is the safe-haven premium for London property?Are property values within sight of their peak?Can rental growth take up the baton?Are supermarket property returns past their best?How good are the prospects for London office rents?Four reasons to be positive about property lending prospectsHow far and fast might non-prime capital values rise?Is Manchester property a good bet?Rising confidence will accelerate property’s recoveryIs the revival of hotel investment a sign of better times ahead?
Shopping centres: will the out-of-town/in-town gap get wider?South East offices: poised to outperform?Can the UK build its way to a recovery?How strong is the case for distribution warehouses?When will the commercial property deleveraging end?Autumn Statement 2012: More of the sameThe outlook for 2013: a return to rising capital values?Autumn Statement 2012 PreviewThe Central London shop boom: when and how will it end?Are all forecasters too bearish about industrial rents?
Will the euro-zone crisis undermine London property values?Why leisure property is set to outperformIs the low office to retail yield spread sustainable?Is weak investment market activity a sign of trouble ahead?How will UK property markets fare in 2012?Will non-bank lending really help the property market?Will commercial property prices start to fall again in 2012?Can hotels weather the consumer spending slump?How much further can the Central London office boom run?Permission-free conversions: a watershed proposal?
Will London offices outperform the Big Six over 2011-13?Budget 2011: Still banking on Plan AAre lenders really set to abandon delay and pray policies?Where will the property to bond yield spread go next?What is the outlook for leisure property returns?Beyond austerity: the long-run outlook for high street shopsEffect of consumer austerity on high street shops investmentProperty in the new ParliamentDoes the yield curve foreshadow property performance?Will real UK commercial property rental values stay flat?
Will the retail sector again outperform following recession?Standard industrials & distribution warehouses: the outlookWhich sector has the best long-term rental value prospects?Total returns in 2010: how good could they get?The effect of voids on landlords' income during a downturnThe effects of structural lease changes on landlords’ incomeWhat do recent policy initiatives mean for property?Is the medium-term outlook for hotels still relatively favourable?Property in business: a waste of space? How things look nowOur economic forecast revisions: implications for property
Is commercial property now fairly valued?West End office rental values set to slumpWhat are the prospects for lending to commercial property?Do commercial property derivatives have predictive power?Has the property investment market cycle changed?What is the outlook for hotel property?The economic damage from the other property crashThe outlook for leisure property returnsCommercial property defaults to rise?A commercial property rental downturn looms
Will prime and secondary both suffer in the downturn?Are Central London office rents heading for a fall?A sharper adjustment than in the past?Foreign investment in UK commercial property; in-depthWhat is the worst-case scenario for capital values?Indirect property investment: A weak link?UK Budget 2007 - Robbing Peter to pay PeterCommercial property: Soft landing realistic?Vacancy rates and London office rentsUK-REITs: A major impact, or a damp squib?
Are the Consensus Property Forecasts accurate?Budget 2006: Implications for propertyStrong demand for retail floorspace unlikely to persistIs the IPD Index accurate and timely?Will tele-working threaten office rents?How should property be valued?Don’t panic! (Commercial Property Lending)London to remain the best performing industrial regionWill the housing slump derail retail property rents?Industrial rents to feel ill-effects of economic slowdown
Is property over-valued?Should investors fear lease reform?(Re) Location, LocationGet ready for the REIT revolutionOffshoring does not threaten the demand for UK office spaceWill interest rate hikes end the commercial property investment boom?