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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

UK Commercial Property Analyst

Analyses the economic drivers of commercial property performance, and contains detailed five-year forecasts for all of the key regional sub-sectors of the property market. It looks at the flow of money into property, property’s comparative investment performance, and the outlook for the regional occupier markets. It is produced quarterly.

Sample - The sweet spot is not over yet

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No sign yet of a peak for capital valuesA favourable occupier market outlookAnother year of double-digit returnsThe recovery is poised to move down a gearThe sweet spot is not over yetProperty hits its sweet spotThe recovery will continue to accelerateThe recovery is poised to broaden and accelerateThe recovery is underwayThe floor is here but upswing will be slow
2013: the first step on the road to recovery?The modest downturn is nearly overWeak confidence to weigh on capital valuesRelapse into recession will extend capital value fallsThe double-dip in property prices is hereCapital values to slide 5% in 2012London's office development pipeline sounds alarm bellsWeak occupier markets will act as a drag on property returnsPrime and non-prime price divergence to continueSub-trend economic growth to restrain occupier market (Q4 10)
Recovery is over, but fresh capital value falls are unlikely (Q3 10)Capital values more likely to plateau than peak (Q2 10)A rally built on shaky fundamentals (Q1 10)Weak economy to prevent a sustained, strong recovery in capital values (Q4 09)The emerging recovery will gather momentum this year, but will fade during 2010 (Q3 09)Yields will peak this year, but rental downturn means capital values are set to fall further (Q2 09)Falling rents to become the key driver of the correction this year (Q1 09)Commercial property downturn to exceed the slumps of the 1970s and 1990s (Q4 08)Occupier market outlook weaker; deeper property price correction is the result (Q3 08)Too soon to look for the trough in commercial property prices (Q2 08)
Weak economy to prompt rental downturn and extend soft returns into 2009 (Q1 08)Commercial property correction set to be sharper, but it will also be over sooner (Q4 07)Emerging commercial property correction will intensify next year (Q3 07)Capital values set to fall in 2008 as the boom finally ends (Q2 07)Commercial property total returns set to halve in 2007 (Q1 07)A modest rise in interest rates will not generate a commercial property crash (Q4 06)Commercial Property Analyst Publication (Q3 06)Momentum ensures 2006 will be another cracker, but rising yields will douse returns next yearBudget 2006: Implications for propertyOne more year of good returns, then back to normal - or worse
Say "goodbye" to double-digit returns as the property market reverts to normalEconomic slowdown to drag average total returns below 7% between 2006 and 2009Choppy waters ahead for property as consumer sector slowdown takes holdSoft landing in investment market to drive double-digit total returnsInvestment boom to continue as yields remain comparatively attractiveYields to fall further as institutions re-enter the frayProperty Market hits sweet spot of the cycleThe housing market revival will not be sustained in 2004Upturn in housing market activity expected to be short livedThe housing market slowdown to spread out from London
The party is over for the UK housing marketHouse prices set to fall 20% from peak in 2003 to troughYields will fall to historic lows on commercial & residential property in 2003Solid, if not stunning, performance from the commercial propertyCommercial Property set to be the "Star Performer" in 2002UK Economic Analysis for Property, Construction and Housing SpecialistsUK Economic Analysis for Property, Construction and Housing SpecialistsUK Economic Analysis for Property, Construction and Housing Specialists