Japan Economics Update Japan’s profitability will continue to lag the US An improvement in corporate governance is a key reason behind the structural pick-up in corporate profit margins over the past two decades. However, even if corporate governance was improved further... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Early signals of Five-Year Plan priorities China's 15th Five-Year Plan will be finalised at the Fourth Plenum later this month. There are limited signs so far of a significant shift in the leadership's priorities – it seems likely that... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s catch-up is faltering A weak currency and sustained deflation mean that China’s economy is on course to shrink as a share of the global economy for a fourth consecutive year, when measured at market exchange rates. China... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi forced to step up austerity as low oil prices bite Following the publication of Saudi Arabia's full 2026 Budget today, we have provided this updated analysis Saudi Arabia officially approved its 2026 Budget earlier today and, while the headline... 30th September 2025 (Updated 2nd December 2025) · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s debt, Saudi & Dubai real estate Lebanon’s Eurobonds are trading at their strongest in over four years as investors’ hopes of a sovereign debt restructuring build amid the new government’s reform push. But we’d caution that, for a... 25th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s lifting of foreign ownership limits not a gamechanger Saudi Arabia’s reform push looks set to take another step forward with suggestions that it will lift foreign ownership limits on local equities before the end of this year. While such a move will help... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly US trade talks resume, PM Modi at 75 Talks between US and Indian trade officials resumed this week in Delhi, hinting at a slight thawing in relations that have become acrimonious over the past couple of months. But while an encouraging... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: limited boost from defence spending surge Poland has ramped up defence spending faster than any other NATO country in the past few years, but we estimate that the boost to GDP growth has been less than 0.2%-pts per year. A high reliance on... 10th September 2025 · 19 mins read
Commodities Focus OPEC at 65: shifting market dynamics expose frailties The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows no signs of slowing down in its “golden years”, but question marks about the future of oil demand, as well as the resilience of non... 10th September 2025 · 20 mins read
India Economics Weekly GST 2.0, infrastructure drive, CPI data Upcoming simplifications to India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) confirmed by the Finance Ministry this week will result in a slightly larger fiscal deficit this year and next, as well as provide a... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi debt issuances & housing reforms We suspect that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will result in a decision to keep oil production unchanged in October, rather than raise production further. But the risks to oil prices are still skewed to... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Focus Inside India’s infrastructure drive The government’s post-pandemic infrastructure drive is helping to ease some of the bottlenecks that have previously constrained India’s economy, with particular success in developing port, railway and... 3rd September 2025 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Vision 2030 & non-oil trade, Tunisia protests A report from the Saudi statistics office this week provided further evidence that women are playing a greater role in the economy – one area where the Vision 2030 reforms have had significant success... 28th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Vision 2030: where do things stand with five years to go? Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme passed the halfway mark last year and we published an in-depth Focus evaluating the progress so far. This Update takes a fresh look at how close the... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Don't let a good crisis go to waste Time is running out for India to secure a reduction to the 50% tariff on exports to the US ahead of the 27th August deadline. But policymakers are using the threat that tariffs pose to the economy to... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
