Global Economics Focus Trump, tariffs and global supply chains If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on... 14th January 2025 · 18 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi debt issuance, Egypt-IMF, Lebanon’s new president Saudi Arabia kicked off the year with bumper international debt issuance and, with foreign investment remaining weak and budget deficits likely to persist, the government’s reliance on capital markets... 9th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Egypt at risk of a sudden stop? The improvement in Egypt’s macroeconomic stability since March’s policy shift has resulted in a surge in capital inflows on a similar scale to that which followed the 2016 devaluation. But if signs... 8th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Will Trump bring a halt to US outperformance? Donald Trump’s policies will be a net drag on US GDP growth over the next couple of years, but we doubt that his re-election will prevent the US from remaining the world’s pre-eminent global economy... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The AI rally has broadened Investors’ enthusiasm for AI appears to have supported an increasingly broad set of equities of late, even if much of the associated rise in market capitalisation remains concentrated in a few of the... 10th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Transition impacts in the spotlight The fact that climate mitigation policies can manifest themselves in a range of macroeconomic outcomes will make it difficult for central bankers to know how to respond appropriately. Meanwhile, the... 27th November 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect... 27th November 2024 · 29 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s privatisation drive, Saudi’s geopolitical tug of war With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Which sectors will benefit most from AI? Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. 19th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do Trump’s immigration plans mean for EMs? US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labour supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there... 18th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update The costs of Spain’s floods and future climate events The recent floods in Spain have inflicted huge personal and financial costs. But in terms of GDP, the effect is likely to be quite small as the temporary loss in activity will probably be offset by... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s debt facing short term gain, long term pain We expect Spain’s public debt ratio to continue falling for the next three or four years, helping to support demand for Spanish government bonds. However, further ahead its debt-to-GDP ratio is likely... 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MbS skips on BRICS+ summit but holds fruitful Egypt talks Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) decision to skip next week’s BRICS+ summit adds to the signs that the Kingdom feels that its shift towards China’s sphere of influence may have gone too... 17th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Answering your questions on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia election, UAE budget, Saudi King’s health Incumbent Kais Saied won Tunisia's election in an (unsurprising) landslide and his second term will probably see the economy remain on the path towards a messy balance of payments crisis and sovereign... 10th October 2024 · 8 mins read
