Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2025) With consumer spending remaining in the doldrums, there is a strong case for the RBA to cut rates faster and further than most are predicting. 2nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2025) Today’s money and lending data release supports wider evidence that activity was relatively soft in May. But with consumer confidence improving and real wages rising at a healthy clip, we still think... 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korean consumer boost, political trouble in Thailand While retail sales in Korea remain just over 2% below pre-pandemic levels, there are growing signs the worst is behind us. Consumer sentiment has rebounded sharply following the recent presidential... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: Central banks to loosen further as recoveries falter Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New Zealand isn’t likely to be sustained. As the lull in activity lifts spare capacity, underlying price... 26th June 2025 · 20 mins read
China Economic Outlook China Outlook: Fiscal prop to fade as exports slow Exports would almost certainly have weighed on China’s growth whatever happened this year, but US tariffs – even at their reduced rate – will worsen the drag. Fiscal support has been propping up... 25th June 2025 · 16 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising... 23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Apr 2025) The rise in retail sales in April showed consumer spending remained resilient to tariffs at the start of the second quarter. That said, the grisly flash estimate for May suggests the economy will slow... 20th June 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: EU is choosing Trump over China, retailers doing well When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But it was clear this... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2025) The sharp 2.7% m/m drop back in retail sales volumes in May adds to other evidence that the burst of economic growth in Q1 is over. That said, consumer spending may still outperform other areas of the... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (May 2025) The weakness in retail sales in May was mostly due to temporary drags from the end of tariff front-running and the unseasonably wet weather in the east of the country, so should reverse in June... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2025) The stronger-than-expected June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index suggests that, despite ongoing policy uncertainty, consumers have become much less worried about both tariffs and... 13th June 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Still wary of welfare spending, an empty deal It's now nearly a year since China's leadership promised to "vigorously boost consumption" and the government this week released another policy document pledging more support for households. These... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Recovery appears to be stumbling in the Antipodes New survey data suggest that business conditions in Australia continued to deteriorate in May. Moreover, with firms also reporting a renewed easing in cost and price pressures, risks are tilting... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as... 10th June 2025 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumers still spending, births falling Japanese households are doing better than had seemed to be the case, with data this week giving upbeat signals on both wages and consumer spending. They are not, however, having babies: fifty years... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
