China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Nov. 2024) China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, despite tailwinds from recent policy easing. Growth still looks on course to pick up this quarter, but the disappointing November data underscores... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tankan adds to case for December hike We’re in a minority of analysts expecting the Bank of Japan to hike rates next week. But the ongoing labour shortages and strength of output price pressures flagged in today’s Tankan have only made a... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec. 2024) While the headline University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remains below its average over the first half of the year, the jump in December suggests that household spending growth is likely to... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth outlook remains poor Data released today show that euro-zone household consumption rose strongly in Q3. But slowing real income growth means that we expect spending growth to be subdued in the coming quarters. Meanwhile... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Despite sluggish activity, RBA will only cut in May With Australian Q3 GDP data underperforming expectations, markets now think the RBA could begin its easing cycle as soon as April. To be sure, it is certainly the case that private demand showed few... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Is strong services spending here to stay? We think that the shift in the shape of consumer spending over the past few years away from spending on goods towards spending on services is here to stay. While the recent strength in spending on... 5th December 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (October 2024) October’s decline in euro-zone retail sales followed a good third quarter for retailers. We suspect that the strength in sales in Q3 was just a one off and that growth will be subdued in the coming... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q3 2024) GDP growth remained sluggish in the third quarter, adding to the case for the RBA to start easing policy before long. 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 24) 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Oct. 2024) The 0.27% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in October was a little lower than we feared based on the earlier CPI and PPI data, but still confirms that prices rose at an above-target rate for the... 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) The strong increase in retail sales volumes in September confirms that they grew by around 5% annualised last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth picked up strongly. The October... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
