US Economics Update Consumption won’t fall off a cliff Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Sep. 25) Notwithstanding the slowdown in household spending last quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. We don't expect rate cuts to be on the agenda before the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2025) There is little evidence within September’s money and lending data that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November is influencing households’ financial decisions just yet. 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Five-Year Plan aims to rebalance fiscal spending The full proposals for China’s upcoming Five-Year Plan have just been published. These make it clear that fiscal policy will play a key role in the leadership’s efforts to lift the consumption-to-GDP... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Five-Year Plan teasers suggest rebalancing will be slow Officials have pledged to significantly increase the consumption share of GDP. But the wider messaging on China’s upcoming Five-Year Plan suggests that efforts to further expand the supply-side of the... 24th October 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2025) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in September was much better than expected (consensus forecast -0.2% m/m, CE -1.2% m/m) and meant sales rose for the fourth month in a row and by 0.9% q/q in... 24th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) The solid rebound in retail sales in August will not do much to spare the economy from a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third quarter given the similar-sized fall in sales expected in... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China's Five-Year Plan: Staying the course on industrial policy China’s leadership has just wrapped up a closed-door meeting to discuss the upcoming Five-Year Plan. The message from the post-meeting communique is one of policy continuity, with technological... 23rd October 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2025) Headline GDP growth fell to its lowest in a year last quarter. But we think the figures still overstate the pace of economic expansion by at least 1.0%-pts. The September activity data were mixed –... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fiscal tightening to drive growth slowdown in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 15th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Little consumption upside from home refinancing uptick The extent to which the recent drop in mortgage rates and flurry of home refinancing can boost consumption is limited, as most homeowners still hold pandemic-era sub-4% loans. While there is some... 10th October 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Oct 2025) Consumer sentiment edged down to a five-month low of 55.0 in October, from 55.1, as a cocktail of labour market weakness, above-target inflation and, potentially, the ongoing government shutdown... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Soft holiday data underscore weak consumption outlook Retail sales growth slowed over the summer and there were no signs of a revival in consumer activity during the recent National Day holiday. With property prices still falling and the labour market... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ’s easing cycle will be over by year-end We were among the minority of analysts who correctly predicted that the RBNZ would slash its policy rate by 50bp this week and we still expect another 25bbp cut at its November meeting. However... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Car finance refunds slim compensation with tax rises coming The possible £8.2bn of compensation for the mis-selling of car finance will be a nice windfall for some households. But it’s much smaller than the similar payments of £38.3bn in the 2010s and will... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
