Africa Economics Weekly Easing cycle gains momentum, no news from SONA Inflation figures released in South Africa and Nigeria this week supported our view that policymakers in both countries will loosen monetary policy later this year. Rates elsewhere are already falling... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia rate cut would be a misstep, Argentina wrap Market expectations for interest rate cuts in Colombia are growing, but the country’s large current account deficit means that we think any easing would probably prove to be a policy mistake... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank will have mixed feelings about stronger loonie Given that an average of the Bank’s three core inflation measures reached a seven-year high in May, policymakers may welcome the disinflationary effect that the appreciation of the loonie this week... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Improved valuations will support further yield falls The poor performance of retail is the main story in Scandinavian and Swiss markets, contrasting with solid industrial and office returns. In emerging Europe, the retail sector is expected to do better... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We don’t think that Fed easing will boost Treasuries Although we expect the FOMC to loosen policy substantially by the spring of 2020, we are not forecasting a renewed decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to below 2%. This is because we think that the... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Existing home sales saw a decent rise in May, but that doesn’t mean activity will now take-off even with interest rates set for further falls. Subdued home buying sentiment, a lack of inventory and... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Retail sales rose by just 0.1% m/m in April, partly because the introduction of the carbon tax weighed on gasoline sales volumes. Total retail sales declined in volume terms and the weakness of... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC singing a different tune The MPC struck a markedly more dovish tone in the statement and minutes of June’s meeting compared to May’s. This was partly due to a weakening global and domestic outlook, but the rising chances of a... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc surges; best of Swedish bond rally is over Having seen the Swiss franc climb close to a two-year high this week following the flare-up in tensions between the US and Iran, the SNB will surely consider intervening soon – particularly if these... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed acknowledges rising fears about outlook As far as the markets are concerned, this week the Fed all-but guaranteed a July rate cut. On balance, we still suspect that a delay until September is a little more likely, but much will depend on... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Jens Weidmann won’t stop ECB QE The ECB is lining up further stimulus, and we doubt that even a Jens Weidmann presidency could stop it. Meanwhile, the decline in bond yields in Italy this week increases the risk that the government... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Post-Olympics public spending boost, BoJ holding firm Japan’s government appears to be lining up a stimulus programme to prevent an economic downturn after the Tokyo Olympics next year. While increased public spending would provide a welcome boost to GDP... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth running at a three-year low EM GDP growth slowed to just 3.3% y/y in Q1, its weakest pace since the first half of 2016, and our Tracker suggests that it remained sluggish in Q2. Growth should pick up a little in the second half... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth continues to weaken, rates to be cut further After a very weak first quarter that saw GDP growth in many countries drop to a post-financial crisis low, the most recent data suggest growth across Emerging Asia has continued to slow. Weak growth... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Istanbul election won’t lead to turnaround in policymaking This weekend’s re-run of the Istanbul mayoral election will dominate the headlines in the coming days, but it looks like the result will do little to curtail the deterioration in Turkish economic... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa has a dream, but few plans South Africa’s president provided essentially no policy detail in yesterday’s ambitious State of the Nation speech. Indeed, he seems to have walked back his plan of a relatively modest restructuring... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
