UK Economics Weekly MPC singing a different tune The MPC struck a markedly more dovish tone in the statement and minutes of June’s meeting compared to May’s. This was partly due to a weakening global and domestic outlook, but the rising chances of a... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc surges; best of Swedish bond rally is over Having seen the Swiss franc climb close to a two-year high this week following the flare-up in tensions between the US and Iran, the SNB will surely consider intervening soon – particularly if these... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed acknowledges rising fears about outlook As far as the markets are concerned, this week the Fed all-but guaranteed a July rate cut. On balance, we still suspect that a delay until September is a little more likely, but much will depend on... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Jens Weidmann won’t stop ECB QE The ECB is lining up further stimulus, and we doubt that even a Jens Weidmann presidency could stop it. Meanwhile, the decline in bond yields in Italy this week increases the risk that the government... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Post-Olympics public spending boost, BoJ holding firm Japan’s government appears to be lining up a stimulus programme to prevent an economic downturn after the Tokyo Olympics next year. While increased public spending would provide a welcome boost to GDP... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth running at a three-year low EM GDP growth slowed to just 3.3% y/y in Q1, its weakest pace since the first half of 2016, and our Tracker suggests that it remained sluggish in Q2. Growth should pick up a little in the second half... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth continues to weaken, rates to be cut further After a very weak first quarter that saw GDP growth in many countries drop to a post-financial crisis low, the most recent data suggest growth across Emerging Asia has continued to slow. Weak growth... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Istanbul election won’t lead to turnaround in policymaking This weekend’s re-run of the Istanbul mayoral election will dominate the headlines in the coming days, but it looks like the result will do little to curtail the deterioration in Turkish economic... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa has a dream, but few plans South Africa’s president provided essentially no policy detail in yesterday’s ambitious State of the Nation speech. Indeed, he seems to have walked back his plan of a relatively modest restructuring... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) While borrowing was higher than expected in May, the underlying picture is healthier. That should give the next Prime Minister greater scope to borrow more to increase spending or cut taxes without... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) The slight improvement in the flash PMIs for June will not be enough to deflect the ECB from its new plan to ease policy within the coming months. We expect it to cut its deposit rate by 10bp in... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update And then there were two The outlook for the economy should be similar with either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt at the helm. After all, both have committed to loosening fiscal policy. And although both are willing to leave... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Google’s homes will have little impact on prices Any new housing in the San Francisco Bay area is welcome, but Google’s plan to help build 20,000 homes over the next decade will have little impact on prices. The San Francisco metro has the tightest... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the rallies in Treasuries, JGBs and Gilts to last 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The writing is on the wall for Chinese steel Chinese steel rebar prices have been bolstered recently by surprisingly resilient construction activity, but we expect demand to falter in the coming months and prices to fall sharply. 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
