Capital Daily Trump tariffs and the dollar revisited (again) The Trump administration’s continued re-escalation of tariffs threats have so far made limited impact on financial markets, but one key difference in the way market participants have digested the... 14th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Focus Measuring Treasury term premia Although estimates of the 10-year Treasury term premium vary, most approaches suggest that it currently sits at around its highest level in a decade or so. We expect it to remain elevated over the... 14th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EUR/USD strength is built on shaky economic assumptions While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will... 14th July 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound has further to run despite Tariff Man The US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger as President Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again and US interest rate expectations edge higher. As widely expected, the 9th July... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Defence boost demands more than a federal whip-round The federal government’s ambitious plans to boost defence spending will require more than operational spending cuts, although Canada’s favourable fiscal position leaves plenty of scope to borrow... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump shifts focus back to trade and tariffs President Donald Trump has turned his attention back to trade policy in recent days, threatening to resurrect higher reciprocal tariffs on many countries in another few weeks. He has also indicated... 11th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun 2025) The strong 83,100 rise in employment and the dip in the unemployment rate in June suggests the labour market is in better shape than we had feared, despite ongoing uncertainty around Canada’s trade... 11th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What happened to the bond vigilantes? Tests of investors’ nerves have come thick and fast lately, with the latest being a hike in tariffs in Canada. Despite some small wobbles, the big picture is that those nerves have mostly held so far... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook US Housing Outlook: No clear path to housing recovery Activity in the housing market has been struck in a slump since 2023, with still no end in sight. As Trump’s immigration and trade policies push up inflation this year, the Fed will be forced to keep... 10th July 2025 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil just isn’t big enough to rattle global markets Donald Trump’s planned imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazil for seemingly political reasons may represent a new milestone, but Brazil simply isn’t a big enough trading partner of the US to rattle... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update APAC property to underperform globally Poor performance in the US and APAC property markets is set to drag on the global recovery over the next few years. While strong economic fundamentals argue for a material improvement in total returns... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook US Office Metros Outlook: Miami set to be the big winner Office values have further to fall in all metros this year, but from 2026 we are expecting a recovery, with the southern markets showing the way. Led by Miami, those metros will see strong rent growth... 10th July 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 17-18 2025) The minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting show most Fed officials content to wait and see what impact tariffs and other government policies had on inflation and the labour market before committing to... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Plenty of margin for error when it comes to tariffs Even if tariffs on US imports don’t rise substantially more next month for many countries after yet another delay, who is ‘paying’ for the increases in tariffs that have already occurred and appear... 9th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update US copper tariffs mask soft underlying fundamentals The looming imposition of tariffs on copper by the US will continue to support prices in the US. But for all the attention on the surge in prices there, it won’t be long before fundamentals snap back... 9th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US agriculture to remain resilient in face of headwinds The combination of exposure to retaliatory tariffs, upward pressure on input costs, and heavy reliance on “unauthorised” labour means that the outlook for the US farming sector is highly uncertain... 9th July 2025 · 3 mins read
