Commodities Update US oil producers adopting a cautious supply response The lack of an aggressive supply response from US oil producers reflects uncertainty over the price outlook and large producers’ preference for returning higher free cash flow to investors. Looking... 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Sep. 2026) The surge in mortgage rates in recent months has brought housing activity to a standstill, as shown by the collapse in pending home sales in September to their lowest level since the series began. 20th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Sep. 2026) The sharp decline in both single- and multifamily housing starts in September reflects homebuilders’ reluctance to start new projects amid the latest surge in mortgage rates, which will continue to... 20th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update AI bust to drive Treasury yields lower Having already driven the US stock market over recent years, the AI theme is increasingly driving the Treasury market too. We expect this to remain the case over the coming year: we forecast a plunge... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys underscore policy dilemma The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show renewed trade tensions have disrupted the recovery, with a stark contrast in sentiment between firms surveyed before and after new tariffs were... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The easing in core price pressures back to a roughly target-consistent rate, paired with recent weak Labour Force Surveys, should keep the Bank of Canada from hiking next week despite Governor Tiff... 19th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Tech tumbles, but it’s good news for Treasuries We don’t think the AI bubble has burst yet, but if tech does come under further pressure it might not immediately spread to the rest of the market. Meanwhile, we remain upbeat on Treasuries. 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks show little sign of abating The September CPI and PPI data delivered a decidedly “discouraging” message for the Fed, to use Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee’s words, with core inflation on both measures surprising to the... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Impacts of renewed trade war mixed so far The recent downturn in the manufacturing sector is not entirely attributable to the US' new Section 338 tariffs, though timelier data on new orders suggest there could be more downside yet to be felt. 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries could hedge AI bust even if oil prices rise So far this year, long-dated Treasuries have been a poor hedge against AI wobbles when this has coincided with rising oil prices. But we think they would fare well if the AI boom turned to bust as we... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Sep. 2026) The rebound in manufacturing output in September will ease jitters around August’s unexpected fall. While the strength of the AI buildout looks to be masking weakness in other areas feeling the bite... 16th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch. (Oct. 2026) The rise in mortgage rates has sent the housing market into reverse, with sales and prices both falling in September. The near-term risks to mortgage rates lie to the upside, which means prices could... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Another positioning shakeout or the beginning of the end? Hot US inflation data over the past couple of days have been overshadowed by renewed questions around the sustainability of the AI boom. With both equities and Treasury yields dropping sharply for the... 15th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update How would Canada fare without Quebec and Alberta? The blow to GDP from the loss of Quebec industry and Alberta’s oil and gas sector could be mediated somewhat by continued free trade, firms relocating from the seceding provinces to the rest of Canada... 15th October 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Sep. 2026) The muted rise in control group retail sales suggests that real consumption was little changed in September. While that still leaves real GDP growth on track to rise to a little over 3% annualised in... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2026) The rebound in manufacturing sales in August was purely down to price effects, with volumes unchanged as new Section 338 tariffs began to weigh on the factory sector. Combined with a sharp contraction... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
