US Economics Update The implications of the Court of Appeals ruling on tariffs In the wake of the Court of Appeals’ decision upholding a lower court finding that Trump exceeded his executive powers by imposing sweeping universal and reciprocal tariffs, this Update answers key... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug 2025) The bounce in the ISM manufacturing new orders index in August suggests that, although the manufacturing sector is still struggling, it may now be turning a corner. 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
US Rapid Response US Court of Appeals agrees that Trump’s tariffs are unlawful By a 7-4 vote, the Federal Court of Appeals has upheld the earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade (CIT) in May that found President Trump exceeded his authority in imposing reciprocal... 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar not quite cooked yet A quiet month-end week has seen the dollar stabilise – in spite of the Trump administration’s latest escalation of its attacks on the Fed. The lack of follow-through after those attacks and Fed Chair... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem signals fine tuning of Bank framework Speaking at Banco de Mexico’s 100th anniversary event this week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem steered clear of discussing the economic or policy outlook. However, he offered some useful hints... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump cooking up a storm at the Fed This week the CBO published updated projections showing that tariffs are now expected to raise $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, which would almost exactly offset the impact of the budget... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Uncertainty is so far a small drag on global investment The unprecedented levels of trade uncertainty brought about by US tariffs appear to have had only a limited impact on investment so far. Uncertainty has persisted and our model indicates that there... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2025) The contraction in second-quarter GDP was due to a large drag from net trade, which is unlikely to be repeated, but the downward revision to monthly GDP in Jun and preliminary July estimate showing... 29th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (July 2025) The rise in core PCE prices in July was entirely due to a rise in core services prices, and is further evidence that tariffs are having minimal impact on goods prices. Meanwhile, the rise in real... 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How rising JGB yields could be a threat to Treasuries The rise in the yields of Japanese government bonds doesn’t seem to have diminished Japanese investors’ appetite for US Treasuries, and our base case is that will continue. But the risks are growing. 29th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Are US stocks really worth a higher valuation than the rest? The US stock market is at an all-time high, thanks in part to rapid earnings growth and expectations for that to continue. But rising valuations have also played their part, to the point where US... 28th August 2025 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Poor recovery in home sales to weigh on self-storage rents The slow recovery we expect in home sales over the coming years will be a key factor limiting self-storage demand from returning to pre-pandemic levels. As a result, even though completions will... 28th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How worrying would AI fatigue be for the rest of the S&P 500? We suspect the AI-fuelled rally in the S&P 500 has further to run, despite the slightly adverse reaction to Nvidia’s latest results. But even if we’re wrong, we doubt there would be much fall-out... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Immigrant crackdown to limit employment rebound We expect non-farm payrolls to have increased by a modest 90,000 in August, as immigration curbs limit labour supply. We expect the unemployment rate to have been unchanged at 4.2%, while average... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariff rate appears manageable Estimates from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) suggest that Canadian exporters faced an average tariff rate of just 2.5% in June. Even if that figure understates the bill, as we suspect... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
