Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update External strains abate, but pockets of risk remain While external risks have subsided across much of Sub-Saharan Africa in recent quarters, pockets of vulnerability remain. External (and, as a result, debt) vulnerabilities look most acute in Ethiopia. 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s post-election policy direction, Ethiopia crisis spirals Next week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in South Africa is likely to provide an early signal that the government is scaling back its fiscal consolidation plans following the ruling ANC party’s... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccine tides turning in SSA? Evergrande reverberations This week brought the prospect of an improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s vaccine supplies, but the region is still likely to struggle to catch up with the rest of the world in the global vaccination... 24th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: debt risks loom larger with escalating conflict Ethiopia’s escalating internal conflict has reignited concerns about the country’s public debt position. While debt dynamics may not look that worrisome on the surface, the political situation... 8th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rising political risks in Ethiopia, SA GDP revision’s pros? An internal political conflict in Ethiopia is escalating with an all-out civil war no longer a remote prospect. Strains in the country’s already fragile balance sheet are growing and a messy sovereign... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Economic damage report from latest virus waves The evidence from the latest COVID-19 waves sweeping through Sub-Saharan Africa point to a smaller economic blow compared to previous waves. Of course, there is a considerable degree of divergence... 27th August 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive but won’t solve debt woes The $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that was finally signed off by the IMF yesterday should provide welcome relief to some frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA wage negotiations, Ethiopia debt restructuring South Africa’s government is giving up further ground in wage negotiations with trade unions, raising the threat that the austerity plans unravel. Elsewhere, Ethiopia has revealed plans to restructure... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read