Commodities Update Five key questions on the UAE’s OPEC exit This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s departure from OPEC, as well as the future of the group. Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online... 28th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: The UAE leaves OPEC – What this means for global oil and the group’s future 29th April 2026, 9:00AM BST The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC has caught some in the market off guard and raised important questions about the group’s future.
Commodities Rapid Response UAE's exit from OPEC could be the thin end of the wedge 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil buffers are depleting amid extended ceasefires Despite recent extensions of ceasefires in the Middle East, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill and Brent crude oil prices are back above $100pb. The impact from the... 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will not rush into rate hikes The ECB is not going to raise its interest rates next week and policymakers are likely to say they will need to see more evidence of second-round effects on inflation before doing do. We think the... 23rd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Vaca Muerta fuels energy turnaround The surge in shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta field over the past few years has turned Argentina from a net energy importer into an exporter, meaning that – unlike during previous... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The Strait reopens; how energy markets are adapting to war Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has led to a slump in oil prices and offers a path to the resumption of... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly How serious is the threat of energy shortages? The consequences of the Iran war for the UK economy are more about higher energy prices than energy shortages. That said, 12% of the UK's diesel imports and 63% of its jet fuel imports come from the... 17th April 2026 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ headline inflation to rise further, core little changed Headline inflation in the euro-zone rose to 2.6% in March and in our baseline forecast it increases to 3% in April then remains just above that level over the rest of the year. This increase largely... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil: what alternatives are there to the Strait of Hormuz? Alternative export routes – pipelines and other terminals that bypass the Strait of Hormuz – are operating at close to full capacity, diverting around 4m bpd of oil exports. In total, that’s... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the euro-zone’s energy price shock in context In our baseline scenario, the euro-zone’s energy import bill rises by 0.4% of GDP this year, which is not unusually high. In our adverse scenario it increases by three times this amount, which is high... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation... 10th April 2026 · 6 mins read
