Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump muddles the US’s relations with MENA President Trump’s comments on Gaza risk straining relations with the Gulf and will work against his aim of expanding the Abraham Accords to include a normalisation of Saudi-Israel relations. Meanwhile... 6th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s sovereign debt outlook is perilous Mozambique’s post-election woes are mounting after another reported delay to one of its key natural gas projects. And this has led to increasing talk that the government may seek to restructure its... 6th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Solar take-up in Saudi will be felt in global oil markets The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for... 5th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil The fact that the US is highly dependent on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico has (so far at least) not precluded oil from the threat of President Trump’s tariffs. Against this backdrop, our... 4th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the EU go on Capital Markets Union? EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change... 31st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s SOE “tough love”, Nigeria fuel imports, USAID South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Re-routing to become the name of the game While expectations for tariffs and sanctions have buffeted industrial metals prices this week, the lesson from previous periods has been that trade flows will readjust relatively quickly, leaving... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ and Trump, Egypt’s debt issuance President Trump’s call for OPEC+ to “bring down the cost of oil” is unlikely to change the outcome of group’s meeting on Monday; it is likely to stick to plans to gradually raise oil output from April... 30th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 30th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Nigeria oil and BRICS, Mozambique LNG delay Nigeria recently became the BRICS group's latest "partner" member, adding to the evidence that the government is trying to straddle the geopolitical divide between US- and China-led blocs. But that... 24th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump starts with a bang; EU gas higher for longer? President Trump hit the ground running by declaring a National Energy Emergency and outlining his desire for lower oil prices. Whilst Trump has put the focus on ramping up oil supply to bring oil... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response Trump leaves door open for Saudi to flood the market The news from Davos that President Trump will “ask Saudi Arabia and Opec to bring down the cost of oil” is certainly in keeping with his desire for lower gasoline prices and his clear intention to use... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi-US relations already warming under Trump Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US already appear to be on a stronger footing during Donald Trump’s first few days in office, adding to signs that it’s drift towards China is over. The Kingdom... 23rd January 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Focus What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency? The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will... 23rd January 2025 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Commodities caught in the geopolitical crossfire As the ramp-up in US sanctions against Russia's energy sector has demonstrated, commodities are increasingly being caught in the crossfire of broader geopolitical machinations and tariff policy. The... 17th January 2025 · 4 mins read
