Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: big near-term increase in oil output unlikely Disruption to oil production in the Middle East has turned attention to Venezuela as an alternative source of oil supply. The longer energy prices remain high, the greater the incentive for oil majors... 13th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia sanction relief barely helps; cracks in refined markets The temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions by the US is one of several levers being pulled by policymakers to reduce oil prices from ~$100pb. But despite these efforts, prices will remain high for... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How might governments respond to the energy shock? If oil and natural gas prices remain high, it seems very likely that governments will step in with some fiscal support. The scale of that support is uncertain, but even if energy prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China bans fuel exports to avert shortages While China can’t avoid paying higher prices for imported crude, as a net exporter of refined petroleum products it can turn to trade barriers to shield itself from the soaring mark-up on these... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders bracing for prolonged disruption Extreme volatility in front-month oil prices has captured the headlines, but there have also been large moves in the shape of the oil futures curve and in the options market. As it stands, investors... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict will exert a heavy toll on the Gulf There remains enormous uncertainty over how the conflict in the Middle East will play out from here. But the scenarios we have laid out suggest the Gulf economies will almost certainly record negative... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm: net beneficiaries from the energy price shock Major Latin American economies are seen as potential beneficiaries of higher energy prices, reflecting in large part their stronger net energy export positions. This Update summarises the key... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. EM energy producers outside the Gulf will see a terms-of-trade... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to stress readiness to respond to energy shock The ECB is not going to respond to the jump in energy prices by raising interest rates next week. But we expect it to state that the upside risks to inflation have increased, implying that the chance... 12th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Canada? Higher oil prices are positive for the Canadian economy and will boost inflation but, unless prices rise significantly further and stay there for several months, we doubt the Bank of Canada would... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa, the Middle East conflict & the rates outlook Weak core inflation pressures in South Africa mean that the Reserve Bank is less likely to rule out monetary easing in the face of the energy price shock than most other EM central banks. If the... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Energy shock in Asia: policy choices ahead High energy prices and growing concerns over energy security have already prompted significant policy responses across Asia. Some governments are looking to introduce inflation-suppressing measures... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus What would $100 oil mean for the economy and Fed? The US’ position as a modest net energy exporter means a world of near $100 oil prices would not be particularly bad news for the economy. The impact on real GDP growth would still be modestly... 10th March 2026 · 14 mins read
