Commodities Update

Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption

This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here...

9th March 2026 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

How will the Middle East conflict affect Africa

The jump in global energy prices on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, if sustained, will provide a windfall for Africa’s key oil producers, such as Nigeria and Angola. We suspect most of...

6th March 2026 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

The nightmare energy scenario cometh

As conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, the key issue for energy markets is the extent and duration of disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The steady upward trend in oil prices as...

6th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

EZ GDP likely to keep rising despite energy shock

Data published this morning showed that the euro-zone economy grew at a decent pace in Q4 last year. If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, it will be a small drag on growth but not...

6th March 2026 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey

Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net...

6th March 2026 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

What next for UK petrol and utility prices, inflation and interest rates

We’ve refreshed our scenarios for what the Middle East conflict could mean for CPI inflation and also fleshed out what the leap in energy prices could mean for petrol prices, utility prices and...

5th March 2026 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Middle East conflict gives Russia an oil windfall

Russia is a clear beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East, with higher energy prices and, possibly, higher export volumes to Asia likely to narrow the budget deficit. But unless disruption to...

5th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Middle East conflict: the state of play

The conflict in the Middle East that began this week could have profound geopolitical and macroeconomic implications for the region. Energy supply from the Gulf has been severely disrupted, and non...

5th March 2026 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

The underlying factors shaping the oil price shock

While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominates the near-term outlook for energy prices, shifting behaviour in the wider oil market – not least a greater willingness from India and China to import...

4th March 2026 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

Key questions and answers about the LNG crisis

In light of the escalating crisis in the Middle East, including the cessation of LNG production in Qatar, this Update provides broader context about global LNG trade and the implications for energy...

3rd March 2026 · 6 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (February 2026)

February’s jump in core inflation, together with the increases in oil and gas prices since the weekend, reduce the chance of the ECB cutting interest rates this year. But as things stand, we don’t...

3rd March 2026 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

The fiscal cost from a resumption of energy subsidies

Should the price of Brent crude oil spike to $90-100pb in the wake of the Iran war, the government could plausibly lift its energy subsidies by as much as 0.7% of GDP. While that would contribute to a...

3rd March 2026 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

BoE particularly sensitive to energy price risks

With actual CPI inflation and inflation expectations both still above target-consistent rates, the Bank of England is likely to be more sensitive to the upside risks to inflation caused by the recent...

2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have...

2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz

Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy...

2nd March 2026 · 6 mins read