Commodities Weekly Trump tariffs targeting Russian oil yet to shock the oil market The oil market shrugged off the introduction of US "secondary" tariffs on India this week and we expect this to continue to have little impact as long as India continues to purchase Russian oil and... 29th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. ’25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with... 22nd August 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: EU gas to shake off the summer lull; Jackson Hole and gold Although news on the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has influenced EU natural gas prices this week, we still think there are more important factors that will eventually drive prices lower... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Spotlight on petrochems; Trump-Putin energy implications Calls to limit plastic production as part of the recently-collapsed UN treaty talks were always likely to run into a wall of opposition given the importance of petrochemical feedstocks as a source of... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Weak Chinese LNG imports to loosen overall market Weak Chinese LNG demand has been a striking feature of the LNG market in 2025, and we suspect demand will remain soft into next year. Given China is the world’s largest buyer of LNG, weaker Chinese... 11th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump tees up a fresh twist for the oil market OPEC+'s decision to raise output further in September and Trump's smaller-than-expected secondary tariff announcement on India added up to a bearish combination for oil prices, as they fell by just... 8th August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Oil market remains unfazed by geopolitics for now Despite President Trump’s threat to enforce 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, which could effectively choke off up to 5% of global... 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Can India wean itself off Russian oil? India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update What are the next steps for OPEC+? We suspect that OPEC+ will have to take a break before unwinding the next layer of voluntary cuts or otherwise face a ballooning surplus in the oil market. Our base case is that the group will begin... 4th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariff news drives oil and metals prices in opposite directions Tariff news buffeted commodity prices this week, as the threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy raised the oil price risk premium but exemptions to copper tariffs brought prices off... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s gas import dependency emphasises need for reform Electricity demand in Egypt broke records this week, shining the spotlight back on to the country’s energy landscape. A collapse in domestic gas output in recent years has increased Egypt’s reliance... 31st July 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 2025, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of Q2 GDP showed that the economy grew by 2.1% q/q, an improvement on the 1.1% expansion recorded in the first quarter, largely on the back of the unwinding of oil... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: China “Mega Dam” context; tweaked OPEC assumptions China’s new “Mega Dam” project will obviously require huge amounts of raw material and will generate more renewable electricity than most countries. However, anyone hoping that the project will make a... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
