UK Economics Weekly The lasting legacy of Trump’s temporary tariff threat Although it took just four days for President Trump's Greenland tariff threat to be withdrawn, the longer lasting impacts on the UK economy could be an accelerated plan to boost defence spending and a... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Capital outflows, India-EU trade deal, Budget preview Foreign investors have remained net sellers of Indian equities in the early stages of 2026 and it's likely that outflows persist for a while yet. That is unlikely to cause external strains but it will... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ reluctant to cap government bond yields The Bank of Japan unveiled today that it had discussed tweaking the planned reduction in its bond purchase plan in response to the huge sell-off triggered by PM Takaichi’s campaign pledge to suspend... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2025) The public finances are finally showing signs of improvement in recent months. But the pace of deficit reduction remains very slow and Starmer/Reeves’ political vulnerability casts doubt over whether... 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How would Japan respond to a further surge in yields? Should JGB yields continue to surge, PM Takaichi may be forced to offset some of the expansionary fiscal measures announced recently with tightening elsewhere. However, those moves may not be seen as... 21st January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Midterms unlikely to slow down Trump The Republicans are likely to lose their majority in the House of Representatives in this November’s midterm elections, but that won’t slow down the President, with Donald Trump continuing to pursue... 20th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update SCOTUS rulings pivotal for Trump’s second year President Donald Trump’s first year back in the Oval Office was more disruptive than we had expected, marked by attacks on the global trading order, the domestic institutional framework and even the... 20th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s policymaking concerns back in the spotlight The credibility of policymaking in Indonesia has been dealt a fresh blow at the start of 2026. It will take time for the more pernicious effects of populist and interventionist policies under... 20th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Questions and answers on Hungary’s pivotal election The latest polls suggest that Viktor Orbán’s long-ruling Fidesz party could lose power in Hungary’s parliamentary election on 12th April. This Update answers five key questions on the implications of... 20th January 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Focus What to expect from India’s Union Budget Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be keen to demonstrate continued fiscal restraint when she delivers her ninth Union Budget on Sunday 1st February. But the current political backdrop is not... 20th January 2026 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Is PM Takaichi creating her own Liz Truss moment? Our base case remains that Japan will avoid a fiscal crisis as its public debt dynamics are more favourable than is widely understood. However, there are mounting risks that PM Takaichi will only rein... 19th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ may lift JGB yields even further We aren’t convinced that the continued rise in long-term bond yields coupled with the further weakening of the yen signals a loss of confidence in Japanese assets. But if the BoJ signals a more... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Portugal’s outperformance last? Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of... 15th January 2026 · 14 mins read
Japan Economics Update Snap elections won’t result in major fiscal loosening While the ruling LDP/Ishin No Kai coalition will probably enhance its majority in the upcoming Lower House elections, we aren’t convinced that this will herald a further major loosening of fiscal... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Pensions & public finances: not just a French problem Far from being only a French problem, pensions will be a growing fiscal headache in all the major euro-zone countries in the coming decade as populations age. In France and Italy, this will add to the... 14th January 2026 · 24 mins read
