Africa Economics Weekly

SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans

Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile...

19th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex

Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural...

19th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Improved LatAm budget positions won’t stop debt rising

Headline and primary budget balances across Latin America generally improved over the course of 2023 (Brazil was a key exception). But it seems unlikely that this will be sustained, and debt-to-GDP...

18th January 2024 · 3 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government...

17th January 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

Kenya better placed to avoid default, for now

One of the big questions in Kenya in 2024 is whether the government can meet a $2bn Eurobond repayment due in the middle of the year. An improving balance of payments position, alongside an enhanced...

16th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa IRP, Transnet cash, World Bank optimism

South Africa presented its draft energy plan, which brought bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the country’s finance...

12th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story

The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government...

12th January 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease

The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is...

12th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance

An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the...

11th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Jordan’s economy stuck in malaise

Economic growth in Jordan has been sluggish for the best part of a decade and the outlook doesn't look much brighter. While the renewed IMF programme will help to contain external strains, the Israel...

11th January 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Update

State & local government spending boom set to end

The surge in spending by state & local governments has boosted economic growth over the past year but, with tax revenues falling back in recent quarters, that boom is now set to fade.

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Focus

Long-term debt sustainability still under threat

The recent sharp fall in Japan’s ratio of public debt to GDP reflects one-off factors that won’t be sustained. While the influence of rising bond yields on the trajectory of the public finances will...

8th January 2024 · 18 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP

Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t...

5th January 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Are we too downbeat on the economy in 2024?

The economic news over the past week has highlighted three upsides to our forecast that the economy will stagnate in 2024. First, the fall in some mortgage rates to below 4% means the effect of future...

5th January 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Investors price in rate cuts, PBOC taps lending scheme

In contrast to elsewhere, bond yields in China continued to drop this week as investors increasingly come around to our view that further cuts to policy rates and reserve requirements are imminent...

5th January 2024 · 7 mins read