Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region... 12th June 2025 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Israel-Iran fears, Red Sea investment, Saudi Q1 GDP Worries of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran and/or its proxies drove a jump in oil prices on Wednesday, but the fallout for the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies should be limited... 12th June 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update The tough decisions for the UK Chancellor won’t end here The 2025 Spending Review is the tightest (outside of the austerity years in the early 2010s) since 2000 and the tough decisions for Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, won’t end here. The government’s U-turns... 11th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (June 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%... 11th June 2025 · 0 mins read
US Economics Focus Risk of US fiscal crisis rising The Federal debt is undoubtedly on an unsustainable path. The debt burden is already close to 100% of GDP and, with the budget deficit likely to remain close to 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future... 9th June 2025 · 20 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economic outperformance in the face of tariff threat India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, making it a global outperformer. The recent sharp drop in inflation has enabled the Reserve... 9th June 2025 · 17 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Tax cuts, trade and a truce The latest CBO projections suggest that tariff revenues will almost exactly offset the cost of the budget reconciliation over the next decade. Otherwise, although the recent talks between Presidents... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Floods in Nigeria, SA Budget and inflation target Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal drama, no TACO for Mexico this week We doubt that the Colombian government will manage to assuage investors’ concerns about the country's public finances when it publishes its fiscal plans next Friday. Elsewhere, the political wrangling... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Three things to watch in the Spending Review Next week’s Spending Review will shine a light on the UK’s tight fiscal position. And the Chancellor’s problems are far from over. U-turns on benefit and welfare spending and higher borrowing costs... 6th June 2025 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korea’s struggling economy, Indonesia’s fiscal stimulus Korea’s new president Lee Jae-myung faces an uphill battle to revive the flagging economy. GDP shrank in Q1 and early Q2 data suggest the economy may already be in recession. The stage is set for a... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ hikes, Saudi banks go abroad, Trump’s metals tariffs OPEC+ opted to stick to a faster pace of oil output increases in July, and Saudi Arabia is now pushing for the group to continue this through to Q4. While this will lift oil GDP growth, the non-oil... 5th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi better placed to smooth non-oil slowdown The most frequent question we received from clients during recent meetings in the Gulf was whether lower oil prices would lead to a sharp slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector akin to that in 2014... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Korea afford post-election stimulus? President Lee’s pledge to provide fiscal stimulus would, if implemented, provide a much-needed lift to Korea’s economy. The country’s public finances could easily accommodate a temporary rise in... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
