China Economics Weekly China Weekly: The new US tariff landscape, fiscal constraints The new reciprocal tariff rates mean that Chinese exports will become more competitive in the US. But planned duties on transhipped goods are a threat, albeit a less serious one than some think... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: UK insufficient climate spending; renewables in Saudi The UK government is set to guarantee higher prices for renewable developers to secure new generating capacity and provide electric vehicle subsidies to support the rollout. More broadly, though... 31st July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 25) China’s economy slowed in Q2, despite industrial activity holding up well in the face of US tariffs. With US-China ties improving, we don’t think tariffs will be as significant of a drag on growth as... 31st July 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a less dovish tone compared with the previous meeting on economic affairs back in April and stops short of committing to any additional monetary or... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon Most of the recent increase in long-term bond yields appears to have been driven by higher expectations for short-term interest rates as well as reduced demand from traditional investors in long-dated... 30th July 2025 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Mega-dam won’t power the economy, trade talks resume While the start of work on China's colossal new hydropower project in Tibet sent infrastructure stocks surging this week, construction won't do much to boost the economy. Meanwhile, US-China trade... 25th July 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Possible tax rises may further dampen consumer spending The disappointing economic news this week suggests there is some downside risk to our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% q/q in Q3 as fears over tax rises in the Autumn Budget already appear to be... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus The causes of fiscal crises and their economic impact History shows that there are no debt or deficit thresholds beyond which a fiscal crisis is inevitable. Rather, crises stem from a mix of high debt, poor debt dynamics, and weak fiscal credibility... 24th July 2025 · 26 mins read
Climate Economics Update Some silver linings in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act Changes to clean energy tax credits in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will slow the renewable rollout in the US and make it more challenging to meet the renewed upward trend in electricity demand... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth slows in Q2 despite resilient industry Our China Activity Proxy shows that China’s activity growth remains well below what official figures suggest. While industrial activity has held up surprisingly well in the face of US tariffs, the... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2025) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi government debt, Egyptian pound Reports this week highlighted the recent sharp rise in Saudi government debt and, while officials are taking steps to tighten fiscal policy, we doubt that they will do enough to prevent it climbing... 24th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (July 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
