Bonds Update Fiscal fears likely to stay baked into Gilt yields We still think the 10-year Gilt yield will fall by the end of 2026 as the Bank of England cuts interest rates by more than investors seem to anticipate. But with term premia likely to remain elevated... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account, Ghana GDP, Nigeria fiscal policy Data out this week showed that South Africa’s current account deficit has widened, but the shortfall is still small and suggests the rand will continue to hold up and that the Reserve Bank can cut... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico jumps on the tariff bandwagon, Milei’s defeat Mexico's decision this week to impose tariffs on countries it doesn't have a free trade agreement with (notably China) was probably influenced by trade talks with the US, but it also supports the... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Does turmoil in Indonesia lift or lower chances of a rate cut? Bank Indonesia will meet next week under the cloud of recent protests and the sacking of respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. We expect officials to hold fire from further easing, not... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian drones in Poland, Romania’s fiscal tightening The incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace this week will, and at the very least, support Polish policymakers' efforts to continue raising defence spending. That said, the macro impact of... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly New French PM, German “autumn of reform” Hints by France’s new prime minister that he will water down plans for budget cuts emphasise that meaningful fiscal tightening in the coming years is very unlikely and support our view that French... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: limited boost from defence spending surge Poland has ramped up defence spending faster than any other NATO country in the past few years, but we estimate that the boost to GDP growth has been less than 0.2%-pts per year. A high reliance on... 10th September 2025 · 19 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economic resilience amid US tariff hit After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 10th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Update Key questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Indonesia This Update answers the key questions on recent developments in Indonesia and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy, as well as the country’s financial markets. We discussed many of these... 10th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Can Nigeria put its public finances on a stable footing? Nigeria policy shift has led to success in monetary policy reform and a stronger balance of payments position. But reforms have so far fallen short is reining in the large budget deficit. While non... 9th September 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Your questions on France answered This Update answers the key questions that we received during this morning’s online Drop-in on the collapse of France’s government. (The recording is available here.) The key points are that while... 9th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia’s Finance Minister Removed The removal of Indonesia’s well-respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani from her post will raise concerns that, in the wake of recent protests in the country, President Prabowo Subianto will seek to... 8th September 2025 · 2 mins read
