Global Supply Shortages – Our Latest Analysis

Below you can find coverage from across our services about the economic and markets impact of global labour and goods supply shortages.

This is by no means exhaustive, but is rather a specially-chosen selection of reports which together explains current conditions and maps out how we think the issue of shortages is likely to progress in the weeks and months ahead.

If you only have time to read one piece, see ‘An anatomy of supply shortages‘.

If you have questions about accessing any of this research, please contact us at sales@capitaleconomics.com

Image showing causes of labour and goods supply shortages
Illustration of Supply Shortages: Causes are shown in blue and associated shortages in red. (Source: Capital Economics)

 

Strength of export orders signals shortages will persist
Emerging Asia Economics (20 October 2021)
Our read of the latest Taiwan export data and why we think  shortages will continue even when final demand weakens.

How would the economy cope with electricity shortages?
UK Economics (18 October 2021)
We don’t think the UK will have to resort to power rationing this winter. If it did, this is what the economic impact would look like.

Indeed Job Postings point to shortages intensifying
Global Economics (18 October 2021)
Analysis of the volume of postings on the global jobs website suggest labour market strains are only getting worse in some DMs.

Labour force exodus shows no sign of reversing
US Economics (15 October 2021)
If workers dropping out of the labour force was just a temporary response to the pandemic then we would have seen the flow reverse already.

Shortages limiting growth and boosting inflation 
Global Economics (14 October 2021)
Monthly Chartbook from Global Economics team now includes special page to track supply shortages.

Deepening labour shortages point to lasting damage
US Economics (13 October 2021)
The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey adds to evidence that the drop in US labour force participation is permanent.

Labour shortages becoming worse and more widespread
UK Economics (12 October 2021)
The end of the government’s furlough scheme will ease some constraints on the labour market, but it won’t plug all the holes.

Shortages skew inflation risks to the upside
Global Economics (11 October 2021)
Global Inflation Watch is our unique, quarterly guide to price pressures across advanced and emerging economies. This latest report assesses what shortages mean for our inflation assumptions.

Southeast Asia shortages unlikely to derail recovery
Japan Economics (8 October 2021)
Japan Economics Weekly highlights how shortages have led to the second worst September for new car registrations since 1968.

Is stagflation-lite the start of something more serious?
Global Economics (7 October 2021)
Comparisons with the 1970s don’t stand up – nor do we see a series of stagflationary shocks.

German Industrial Production (Aug.)
European Economics (7 October 2021)
A stunning 4.7% m/m plunge in production raises fears of a “bottleneck recession”.

An anatomy of supply shortages
Global Economics (6 October 2021)
Our global guide to what’s driving goods and labour shortages, and how policymakers are likely to respond.

What to make of Sweden’s August GDP shocker?
Nordic & Swiss Economics (6 October 2021)
Supply shortages appear to be why the monthly GDP read was far worse than expected.

Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.)
Latin America Economics (5 October 2021)
Shortages were behind a worse-than-expected fall in output, pointing to a challenging Q4.

Vietnam: Is the worst over?
Emerging Asia Economics (5 October 2021)
The easing of Vietnam’s COVID restrictions should be good news for global goods supply. But backlogs of work are so large that disruptions are likely to persist.

Video: Will surging energy prices derail economic recoveries?
4 October 2021
A discussion among our commodities, global and euro-zone economists hones in on the economic impact of natural gas shortages.

Economy running on fumes
UK Economics (1 October 2021)
Goods and labour supply shortages are a big reason why we’ve cut our Q4 UK GDP growth forecast.

PMIs: More signs of supply crimping industrial recovery
Global Economics (1 October 2021)
September PMI review warns ongoing supply chain constraints mean upside risks to goods price inflation.

Supply shortages set to hold back manufacturers
Japan Economics (1 October 2021)
Latest Economics Weekly explains how Japanese industry is reeling from shortages, with no end in sight.

Delta continues to weigh on hiring
US Economics (30 September 2021)

September jobs report could present more evidence of the labour shortages informing our view that US core inflation will stay elevated.

Supply shortages, monetary policy and stock/bond correlations
Capital Daily (29 September 2021)
Daily market commentary explains how shortages are feeding into moves in US Treasury yields.

Power rationing adds to mounting headwinds
China Economics (29 September 2021)

Chinese power outages are part of the global energy markets story but also reflect the challenges of its drive for self-sufficiency.

Revising up our euro-zone inflation forecasts
Europe Economics (28 September 2021)
The price impact of natural gas shortages means we expect inflation to soon hit 4%.

More signs that the trade recovery has reached its limits
Global Economics (27 September 2021)

Our latest monthly Global Trade Monitor explains why supply chain constraints won’t ease until well into 2022.

Labour shortages getting worse
Canada Economics (27 September 2021)
Latest Canada chart book says jobs market there as tight as it is in the US.

Supply shortages to persist
Emerging Asia Economics (24 September 2021)
Analysis of the latest Asian trade data argues global manufacturing faces months of supply constraints.

Labour market shortages getting worse
US Economics (10 September 2021)
US jobs market is tight and getting tighter – in fact, this is starting to look like a structural downshift in labour supply.

The effects of supply shortages
Global Economics (9 September 2021)
Global survey of goods supply shortages and their implications for the inflation outlook and policy.

Euro-zone driver shortages less acute than in the UK
Europe Economics (7 September 2021)
Why a rise in HGV driver pay wouldn’t lead to increasing wage inflation in the euro-zone economy.

PMIs show supply shortages still limiting growth
Global Economics (1 September 2021)
August surveys showed first signs that supply shortages may have peaked – but they aren’t yet easing outright.

Most labour shortages should prove temporary
UK Economics (8 July 2021)
UK jobs shortages should wane beyond the next 6-12 months and won’t be enough to push up CPI inflation.

Labour shortages will last well into 2022
US Economics (29 June 2021)
Why the US jobs market won’t just snap back after the pandemic, and how this informs our view that core inflation will stay elevated.