Filtered by Subscriptions: US Commercial Property Use setting US Commercial Property
Lending against commercial turned increasingly negative in April Net commercial real estate (CRE) lending slowed sharply once again in April. Lending against all commercial sectors turned negative for the first time in nearly six years, and with little in …
15th May 2023
Metro employment growth remained resilient in March The rate of job growth in March remained virtually unchanged from the previous month, signalling resilience across our covered metros despite a slowdown in non-farm payrolls. Within the tech sector the …
3rd May 2023
Sentiment fell further in Q1 The RICS Q1 survey indicated confidence fell further in the opening months of the year but remains substantially above the lows seen during the height of the pandemic. However, we expect sentiment to drop further in the coming …
27th April 2023
Markdowns smaller in Q1, but this feels like the eye of the storm Total returns of -1.8% q/q in Q1 reflected a much smaller markdown in values than in Q4. But, looking ahead, we remain convinced that the strains being felt by many investors will drive …
26th April 2023
March’s net commercial real estate (CRE) lending slowed sharply following SVB’s collapse early in the month. Lending against multifamily fell for the first time in 18 months, driven by a reduction in small banks’ exposure. Along with a softening in …
17th April 2023
Note: Office-based employment data for several metros were missing for February. February employment growth slowed after January’s high February saw a slowdown in jobs growth after a strong month prior, suggesting January’s jump in employment was an …
5th April 2023
Strong payrolls did not make it into the office January was an especially strong month for payrolls data, and this translated into positive employment growth across all 30 of the biggest metros. However, this was not the case for office-based jobs, as a …
17th March 2023
Slight uptick in February’s lending, but still below 2022 average Net commercial real estate lending ticked up in February following a slowdown the month prior. That said, monthly lending activity across all sectors remained below the average for 2022. …
13th March 2023
Slowdown in lending activity beginning to show in January The expected slowdown in net lending to real estate began to show in January. This was seen across all sectors and the latest Senior Loan Officer (SLO) survey suggested this will continue, as banks …
13th February 2023
Office-based employment prospects have taken a dive Despite the solid payrolls data for December, there was a clear softening in employment growth in several large metros. But those that have performed the best since the pandemic continue to outperform, …
1st February 2023
Market sentiment declined further in Q4 as the outlook deteriorated The latest RICS Survey conveyed a further decline in confidence following a turning point in the previous quarter. Comments from surveyors point to high interest rates as the main …
26th January 2023
Sharper markdowns mean worst quarter for total returns since Q2 2009 The 4.45% hit to all-property capital values in Q4 was more substantial than our end-2022 forecasts implied, although recent news of bigger valuation markdowns in December made this less …
25th January 2023
Lending activity still strong in December On the surface, net lending to real estate in December looks to have reached its highest since October 2008. However, this apparent spike in lending was almost entirely due to the addition of a recently-converted …
16th January 2023
Lending showed little sign of slowing in November CRE lending grew solidly again in November, at a rate close to the six-month average, with other commercial sectors picking up the slack from slower growth in multifamily lending. Although lending growth …
12th December 2022
Total employment grew across the 30 metros, but at a slower pace as labour market conditions continued to ease. With our proprietary indicators pointing to a 90% probability of an imminent recession, we maintain the view that those metros worst affected …
1st December 2022
Bounce-back in lending not expected to last CRE lending saw a surprise uptick in growth in October following a rebound in the multifamily sector, although net lending remains below the average for this year. Despite the bounce-back this month, we still …
14th November 2022
Lagging metros unlikely to reach pre-pandemic peaks anytime soon Employment continues to trend higher across the 30 metros, but nearly half remain short of pre-pandemic peaks, including all six major metros. Indeed, with job growth slowing, we don't …
2nd November 2022
Occupier and investor sentiment turned negative in Q3 The RICS Q3 survey indicated confidence has continued to fall from last quarter, as occupier sentiment turned negative for the first time in 2022. With a US recession looking likely early next year, …
27th October 2022
Returns falling sharply and set to turn negative in Q4 As expected, NCREIF all-property total returns dropped back significantly in Q3, to just 0.6% q/q, as investor demand pared back in response to higher alternative asset yields and the poor outlook …
26th October 2022
Lending growth begins to slow as economic headwinds mount CRE lending growth slowed significantly in September, with both multifamily and other commercial sectors seeing the smallest rise in outstanding debt for at least six months. We expect the rate of …
17th October 2022
Losing metros showing little sign of reaching pre-pandemic peaks The greater number of metros seeing a decline in total jobs in August comes as little surprise given the slowdown in the national data this month. But for the major six metros and poorer …
28th September 2022
Rapid growth in outstanding debt, but signs it should slow in September CRE lending saw an even stronger rise in August than in July, with multifamily and other commercial sectors both seeing a large increase in outstanding debt. But there are signs that …
12th September 2022
Office employment showing signs of shrinking in some key office markets Almost all metros saw further gains in total employment in July, with Dallas continuing to lead, and joined by Houston, Charlotte and Miami as the fastest growers. But office-based …
31st August 2022
Another bumper month, but we expect lending growth to slow CRE lending was again exceptionally strong in July, outpacing even the gains seen in recent months. But with investment transaction totals softening in Q2 and our expectation of a further slowdown …
15th August 2022
No sign of any convergence in metro trends There was little evidence of any slowdown in June’s job figures, but the deep divisions in performance at the metro level remained. Dallas and Austin stood out on a range of comparisons, while Pittsburgh and L.A. …
3rd August 2022
Sharp reverse in real estate sentiment in Q2 The latest RICS survey for the US highlighted the steepest drop in confidence since early 2020, abruptly reversing the building optimism of recent quarters. This adds to the growing evidence that the peak of …
28th July 2022
Annual returns now past their peak and set to slow further in H2 NCREIF total returns fell back again in Q2, dropping to 3.2% q/q from their end-2021 peak of over 6%, as higher interest rates and weaker growth hit property performance. We expect the …
26th July 2022
Signs of slowing momentum in CRE lending growth CRE lending growth was again strong in June, but outside of the multifamily sector, there are signs the rate of growth may have peaked. And with investment transactions slowing, we expect a significant …
18th July 2022
Recoveries slowing but Dallas still powering on Employment growth slowed last month, but remained above its historic averages. The big gainer in May was Dallas, which recorded the strongest 3m/3m growth in both total and office-based employment, closing …
29th June 2022
Lending growth maintains momentum in May Commercial real estate debt continued to grow at a decent pace in May, in line with the recent strength in investment activity. However, we expect a weaker economic backdrop to weigh on commercial property lending …
13th June 2022
Winning and losing metros increasingly reflect structural pandemic impact The ongoing jobs recovery continued in April, although employment remained below its pre-pandemic level in more than half the 30 metros covered. Those losers tend to be expensive …
1st June 2022
Rapid lending growth in April reflects record high investment activity Lending growth accelerated in April, seeing the strongest monthly gain in over 12 years. And with transactions having seen a fast start to the year, we think there is more to come in …
16th May 2022
Recovery in sentiment broadens out in Q1, but unlikely to last The RICS Q1 survey showed a further improvement in sentiment, driven by more confidence in prospects for the office and retail sectors. However, since the survey was conducted, the outlook for …
28th April 2022
Still a long way back to previous peaks for some of the worst-hit metros The recovery in employment broadly continued in March. However, the laggards in the recovery still look many months away from previous peaks in terms of both total and office-based …
27th April 2022
Strong start to 2022, but higher rates will slow returns later in the year Total returns on the NCREIF index were strong again in Q1, at 5.3% q/q. That was led by industrial, where they reached 11% q/q, with apartments at just over 5% and the other …
26th April 2022
Southern metros set to remain the big winners at the expense of the north The jobs recovery continued in February, for both total employment and office-based roles. But the divergence in performance of the last two years is persisting, reinforcing our …
6th April 2022
Data show continued wide divergence in the rate of metros’ recoveries The jobs recovery continued in January, but nearly two years on from the start of the pandemic, employment in most metros is still not back to its pre-crisis peak. And, in terms of …
18th March 2022
Another month of decent net lending points to a solid start for investment The rate of commercial lending growth dipped a little in February but remained above its five-year average. That dip was due only to a slower month for multifamily, with net …
14th March 2022
Commercial property debt growth strong again, but lower than recent months Commercial real estate debt growth slowed in January, although that still left it at a decent level. . At this stage it is difficult to be sure whether slowing growth indicates a …
14th February 2022
Employment fully recovered in just four of the 30 metros Progress in the labour market has been slow, with employment having recovered to pre-COVID levels in just four of the 30 metros. While Las Vegas and Orlando have seen decent job growth in recent …
2nd February 2022
Expectations for next 12 months become more upbeat Market sentiment picked up in Q4, driven by widespread improvements in conditions across sectors. Respondents are also becoming more upbeat about the next 12 months, with forecasts for rents and capital …
27th January 2022
Record capital value growth helps 2021 end on a high The NCREIF index saw its strongest ever quarterly price appreciation in Q4, with values up by 5.1% q/q, driving a quarterly return of 6.2%. That took annual returns to 17.7%, led by industrial, where …
26th January 2022
Net lending ends 2021 on a two-year high Commercial real estate debt ended 2021 with its largest monthly increase since the onset of the pandemic. Against a backdrop of strong investment activity, we expect commercial property lending to have a strong …
17th January 2022
Commercial property lending maintains momentum Commercial real estate debt recorded its largest gain in November since the onset of the pandemic. And with investment volumes on track for a record-breaking year, we expect lending activity to remain …
13th December 2021
Office jobs fully recovered in 17 metros; easing virus cases benefit the South The easing of the Delta wave of infections in the South boosted leisure & hospitality hiring in October. Meanwhile, office-based jobs rose in all 30 metros, following …
2nd December 2021
Lending set for strong finish to the year Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fifth consecutive month in October, driven by positive net lending in both residential and commercial real estate (CRE) sectors. We think that this reflects the rapid …
12th November 2021
Austin, Phoenix and Tampa regain job shortfalls, while six major metros lag While the 3m/3m growth rate was positive in all metros in September, employment fell in Baltimore, Detroit, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh on the month. That left employment in just …
3rd November 2021
Survey indicators suggest quarterly capital growth may have peaked Overall sentiment saw little change this quarter, but there was a notable reduction in office occupier demand and three-month rent expectations. The bigger picture is that, with no …
28th October 2021
Strongest quarter for 16 years points to the best annual return since the GFC The NCREIF index recorded a huge 5.2% quarterly return in Q3 thanks to further improvement in all sectors. With no sign of any let-up in investment demand, that puts annual …
26th October 2021
Net lending returns to pre-COVID levels Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fourth consecutive month in September, thanks to net lending turning a corner in the residential sector and accelerating in the commercial sector. Total outstanding …
15th October 2021