Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The rise in the US homeownership rate has stalled, driven by a drop in the proportion of under-35s that own their home. That’s down to higher mortgage rates reducing the number of first-time buyers (FTBs) that can afford to buy. Our forecast is for …
2nd November 2023
Surge in house prices continues Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices will soften over the …
31st October 2023
Our new higher forecasts for US Treasury yields mean that mortgage rates won’t fall as quickly as we previously predicted. While we still expect mortgage rates to decline they are unlikely to fall below 6.0% before end-2025, muting any recovery in house …
26th October 2023
New home sales resume upward trend Extraordinarily limited supply in the existing homes market continued to drive buyers to new homes in September. The 12.4% m/m rise in new home sales in September took them to 759,000 annualised (consensus 680,000), …
25th October 2023
The diffusion of AI technologies should be a fillip for the global economy over the coming years. That will bring benefits for real estate performance in developed economies, particularly in those office markets with concentrations of knowledge …
20th October 2023
Market grinds to a halt Existing home sales fell to their lowest level since October 2010 in September as the increase in mortgage rates to a fresh 23-year high caused buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market. A decline in mortgage applications for …
19th October 2023
We expect demand to be weakest in the six major markets, but new supply is also set to be low in those markets. Elsewhere, we think southern metros will continue to see stronger absorption, though Austin and Miami have large completions pipelines over the …
18th October 2023
Starts rebound, but headwinds remain Single-family starts edged higher in September to 963,000 annualised from 933,000 in August and building permits also rose to a 15-month high. However, we don’t think this means single-family construction activity has …
The surge in mortgage rates to a 23-year high has caused both buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market, and total home sales to drop to their lowest level since 2011. While we’ve revised down our near-term sales volumes forecasts, our view that the …
Surging Treasury yields have pushed mortgage rates above 7.5%, higher than we had anticipated. If these borrowing rates persist, lending and sales volumes could fall even further in the near term creating a risk that house prices fall rather than stagnate …
10th October 2023
The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous financial crises that have been caused by sharp moves in …
4th October 2023
High mortgage rates crush home purchase demand Rising mortgage rates caused mortgage applications for home purchase to slip to a fresh 28-year low in September. With mortgage rates edging above 7.5% in the last week of the month as Treasury yields surged …
Softening demand proves a tipping point for new home sales The 8.7% m/m drop in New Home Sales in August was the largest monthly decline since September 2022 and suggests that the renewed rise in mortgage rates has caused home purchase demand to decline …
26th September 2023
Another dip in house prices this year unlikely after sixth consecutive rise The sixth consecutive rise in house prices in July showed that very tight supply is causing home prices to continue to rise despite sales volumes remaining weak, and suggests a …
Sales fall back to January lows The 0.7% m/m fall back in existing home sales in August reflects falling mortgage borrowing and took sales back close to the low levels recorded in January. Our view that mortgage rates will remain above 6% for the rest of …
21st September 2023
Sharp drop in housing starts suggest turning point Housing starts fell sharply across both the single-family and multifamily sectors in August, suggesting that construction has now reached a turning point. We expect this downward trend to continue for the …
19th September 2023
The recent outperformance of single-family REITs versus apartment REITs appears to be down to differences in the capital value outlook for the sectors, rather than any major difference in rental growth prospects. With our forecasts for single-family and …
15th September 2023
New home sales have brushed off a collapse in overall housing demand, rising 23% in the first half of 2023. More competitive pricing will be providing some support to sales, but the primary factor is the chronic shortage of existing homes for sale, …
12th September 2023
With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum, the worst of the correction appears to have passed and …
7th September 2023
Mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand Mortgage applications for home purchase continued to slip in August, recording the largest monthly fall since February. This latest drop has kept mortgage applications at their lowest level since 1995. While we …
6th September 2023
June saw house prices rise again for the fifth month in a row The limited supply of existing homes for sale helped house prices rise for the fifth consecutive month in June, according to Case-Shiller. Given the sizeable increase in prices in Q2 and that …
29th August 2023
Limited existing home supply supports new sales New home sales rose by 4.4% m/m in July, reaching 714,000 annualised. Despite a slight fall in June, new home sales have seen sustained strength over the last year, with July’s increase leaving them over 30% …
23rd August 2023
We continue to expect historic highs for apartment completions in 2023-24 even though there are signs some will be deferred. This also means that, although new permits have dropped back amid softer market conditions and a tougher outlook for investors, we …
18th August 2023
Single-family starts rebound, but confidence slips Single-family starts rose again in July, in line with a 13-month high in homebuilder confidence in the month. However, confidence slipped again in August. Furthermore, with the Fed unlikely to start …
16th August 2023
Overview – With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum, the worst of the correction appears to have …
11th August 2023
Applications dipped back down toward 30-year lows June’s rebound in mortgage applications for home purchase was short-lived as total applications fell by 1.7% in July. This pushed applications back down toward 30-year lows and was probably prompted by …
2nd August 2023
Climate change is expected to intensify the scale and frequency of flooding over the coming years. Housing markets in the US have yet to fully price in these risks, leaving many properties significantly overvalued. But as these risks begin to manifest, …
31st July 2023
Surge in new home sales begins to ease New home sales fell by 2.5% m/m in June to 697,000 annualised, although this still left them almost 25% above their June 2022 level. (See Chart 1.) Having risen since March, this levelling off in sales is in line …
26th July 2023
House prices rose again in May House prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in May according to Case-Shiller. The resurgence in prices has coincided with an uptick in home sales from February to May, in turn driven by a moderation in mortgage rates. …
25th July 2023
Sales fall back toward January lows Existing home sales edged lower, dropping by 3.3% m/m to 4,160,000 annualised in June. That decline takes sales back towards the low of 4.0m recorded in January. And despite a marginal pickup in mortgage applications …
20th July 2023
Single-family starts fell from previous month’s highs, but remain strong Single-family starts fell back from their 11-month high in June, but remained substantially above the average seen in 2023 thus far as homebuilders remained optimistic. However with …
19th July 2023
Stretched affordability and a weakening economy will weigh on housing market activity this year, causing home sales to remain low. While house prices have recovered in recent months, we expect declines to resume later this year. Even so, affordability …
17th July 2023
Surging mortgage rates are undoubtedly dissuading households from moving due to the cost of giving up low fixed rate mortgages, weighing on home sales and inventory. But a similar decrease in sales in the UK, which does not have long-term fixed rate …
13th July 2023
The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist for the next few years thanks to the relatively high …
11th July 2023
Demand rebounds marginally from historic lows A slight decline in mortgage rates allowed mortgage applications for home purchase to recover from the previous month’s lows in June. That said, applications remain below the average seen so far this year, …
6th July 2023
We recently held a Drop-in titled “Industry’s decarbonisation challenge – From aviation to property”, which you can view on-demand here . This Update addresses some of the questions we received during the event, including those that we did not have time …
3rd July 2023
New home sales soar New home sales increased for the third consecutive month in May, rising by a punchy 12.2% m/m to reach 763,000 annualised, the highest level since February 2022. This leaves them firmly above pre-pandemic levels and around 20% above …
27th June 2023
House prices remain resilient House prices rose in April by the fastest pace in close to a year, reflecting constraints to supply as high mortgage rates have discouraged existing homeowners from moving. Although prices have shown resilience in recent …
Sales remain weak As expected, existing home sales remained relatively unchanged in May, rising by +0.2% m/m to 4,300,000 annualised. Despite this marginal rise, a decline in mortgage applications for home purchase in May suggest we have further falls to …
22nd June 2023
Our new Dashboard allows clients to track the key housing market indicators that we follow in real time. (See here .) This Update outlines what has driven recent developments in these indicators, and our view for the rest of the year. (See also our US …
21st June 2023
Strongest monthly rise in single-family starts for nearly three years Single-family starts saw the largest monthly increase in nearly three years in May, suggesting homebuilders have been responding to the recent rises in new home sales. We still expect a …
20th June 2023
This dashboard presents a range of key monthly indicators for the US housing market. CE Advance clients can download the charts and underlying data. If you can't see the full interactive experience, including all of the charts and tables, and would like …
At face value, the recent improvement in market sentiment indicators supports the view that the worst may be past for housing. But looking deeper, we think this largely reflects supply-side improvements and will not be enough to prevent further weakness …
16th June 2023
The seven-month run of house price declines recently ground to a halt, with the Case-Shiller index showing an increase in prices in both February and March. This was partly driven by the temporary boost to demand at the start of the year from declining …
9th June 2023
Demand falls to historic low Mortgage applications for home purchase fell to their lowest level in almost 30 years in May, as a renewed rise in mortgage rates weighed on demand. This points to further near-term weakness for home sales, which we think will …
7th June 2023
Overview – Poor affordability and a weakening economy will weigh on housing market activity this year, causing home sales to remain low over the next few quarters. While house prices increased in February and March, we expect to see further modest …
1st June 2023
House price declines reverse In line with the stronger-than-expected economic data releases at the start of the year, house prices proved resilient in March. But we expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, which will weigh on homebuyer …
30th May 2023
The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also supported prices in those markets. Employment, incomes, …
25th May 2023
Buyers pushed to new build sector New home sales recovered to close to pre-pandemic levels in April as a lack of existing homes for sale pushed buyers to the new build sector. But still-stretched affordability and a weakening economy will prevent new home …
23rd May 2023
Sales in a slump Existing home sales fell back towards their recent lows in April, not helped by a very tight inventory. The high cost of a new mortgage is acting to discourage homeowners with a low fixed-rate mortgage from moving, which is disrupting …
18th May 2023
