Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Even if mortgage rates fall to 6.5% this year as we expect, homeowners will still be discouraged from listing their home, ensuring supply remains tight. At the same time, mortgaged buyer demand should pick-up as affordability improves. That will drive …
18th April 2024
We anticipate that mortgage rates will continue to fall in 2024, but more gradually than they have recently from 6.8% now to 6.25% by the end of the year. That won’t be enough to bring a great deal of stock on the market. At the same time, we expect a …
17th January 2024
Recent falls in Treasury yields have bought mortgage rates back down from a peak of 8% in October to 7% earlier than we had anticipated, setting the scene for a recovery in housing market activity in 2024. That said, as we don’t think borrowing costs will …
14th December 2023
Surging Treasury yields have pushed mortgage rates above 7.5%, higher than we had anticipated. If these borrowing rates persist, lending and sales volumes could fall even further in the near term creating a risk that house prices fall rather than stagnate …
10th October 2023
With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum, the worst of the correction appears to have passed and …
7th September 2023
Stretched affordability and a weakening economy will weigh on housing market activity this year, causing home sales to remain low. While house prices have recovered in recent months, we expect declines to resume later this year. Even so, affordability …
17th July 2023
The seven-month run of house price declines recently ground to a halt, with the Case-Shiller index showing an increase in prices in both February and March. This was partly driven by the temporary boost to demand at the start of the year from declining …
9th June 2023
The US housing market has been largely unaffected by the banking sector turmoil. Indeed, buyer sentiment rose to an 11-month high in April and activity appears to have bottomed out. Tighter credit conditions could yet weigh on the market, but the latest …
10th May 2023
Stronger-than-expected economic data in January led to a rebound in market interest rate expectations and a jump in mortgage rates from 6.2% at the start of February to 6.8% in March. That drove mortgage applications for home purchase lower and means …
14th March 2023
There are growing signs that housing market activity may be close to a trough. The decline in mortgage rates over the past couple of months has led to a small improvement in affordability and a rise in homebuyer sentiment, albeit from a record low. …
12th January 2023
A fall in mortgage rates from 20-year highs supported the first rise in home purchase demand in eight months in November. Given that mortgage rates are likely to continue to trend lower from here, sales should soon bottom out. But the big picture is …
14th December 2022
A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as a share of median income rose to 26% in September. …
14th October 2022
Stretched affordability continued to weigh on housing market activity in July and August, leaving mortgage applications for home purchase down by 40% from their high in January. A renewed rise in mortgage rates to above their previous peak of 6% in the …
9th September 2022
The upward trend in mortgage rates took a breather over the past month, but that didn’t provide much of a boost to housing market activity. Existing home sales have fallen for four months in a row, and a sharp decline in the Fannie Mae Home Purchase …
15th July 2022
Housing activity is slowing in the face of higher mortgage interest rates. Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped to a two-year low in May, existing homes sales have declined in each of the three months to April and new home sales recorded their …
9th June 2022
The rise in mortgage rates, to a 12-year high in mid-April, is now starting to weigh on housing market activity, with new and existing home sales falling back over the past couple of months. (See Chart 1.) With rates set to increase to 5.6% by mid-2023, …
10th May 2022
Mortgage rates are set to rise to over 5% within the next couple of weeks which will help cool, but not crash, housing market activity. Pent-up demand from the last couple of years as buyers have struggled to find a home, and the continued need for more …
8th April 2022
A rise in mortgage rates to their highest since May 2019 has cooled housing market activity, with mortgage applications for home purchase dropping to a 31-month low in the last week of February. (See Chart 1.) Admittedly, the war in Ukraine pushed …
11th March 2022
House prices and rents both boomed in 2021, but are set for a quieter 2022. Mortgage rates are now rising and we expect the 30-year rate will end the year at around 4%. Combined with the rise in house prices that will push mortgage payments as a share of …
8th February 2022
Housing market activity had a strong end to 2021, with sales and starts both rising. However, after a brief dip due to concerns over Omicron, mortgage rates resumed their upward trend and reached a nine-month high by the end of the year. A further rise in …
11th January 2022
Housing market activity has surprised on the upside over the past month and home sales look set for a strong end to the year. Even as mortgage rates increased to an eight-month high, home purchase mortgage applications have surged, pending home sales are …
7th December 2021
The homeowner and rental markets are starting to swap places, with home sales and prices cooling as rental demand and rents take off. Rising mortgage rates have started to bring housing demand down, and we expect they will rise further over the next …
10th November 2021
Mortgage rates are on the rise and we expect they will see further gains to end the year at around 3.5%. That, alongside relatively tight credit conditions, will help cool rampant house price inflation. From close to 20% y/y in July, we expect a slowdown …
15th October 2021
Mortgage rates have been stable at close to record lows since mid-July, but that hasn’t prevented a decline in housing demand. New home sales are down 28% from their peak last year and while existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, the pending …
9th September 2021
The share of households seeing now as a good time to buy a home has fallen to 39-years lows, as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and record low inventory have weighed on sentiment (See Chart 1.) But the share actually planning to buy has not …
11th August 2021
Despite mortgage rates seeing little movement in recent months, mortgage applications for home purchase have dropped to their lowest level since April last year. That implies home sales have further to fall. (See Chart 1.) Booming house prices, which …
7th July 2021
Both new and existing home sales dropped back in April and the May pending home sales index points to further declines in existing sales over the next couple of months. (See Chart 1.) House price growth of over 13% y/y and a rise in mortgage rates since …
8th June 2021
Mortgage rates have edged down since the end of March, but that didn’t prevent a fall in the share of households who see now as a good time to buy a home to a record low in April. (See Chart 1.) House price growth of 12% y/y, and record low inventory, …
12th May 2021
Mortgage rates rose further in March, with the 30-year rate now up 50bps compared to the start of the year. Recent stability in the 10-year Treasury yield means mortgage rates are likely to move sideways over the next couple of weeks, but we expect they …
9th April 2021
Rising mortgage interest rates are starting to bring housing demand down from its recent elevated level. At 3.26% in the first week of March, mortgage rates were at an eight-month high. Coupled with severe weather in the south, that lead to a steep …
11th March 2021
Mortgage rates rose to a 12-week high in the first week February, and a further rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.5% means they will increase to around 3.2% by the end of the year. Alongside surging house prices and record low inventory, that …
12th February 2021
House price growth surged to 8.4% y/y in October, as booming home sales have combined with record low inventory to boost values. But that rise in prices has already offset the improvement to affordability provided by record low mortgage rates. (See Chart …
15th January 2021
The surge in home sales looks to be running out of steam. The pending home sales index dropped back in September and October, and that points to a fall in existing home sales in November. (See Chart 1.) With pent-up demand from the spring now largely …
9th December 2020
The 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% last week, but we doubt it will stay there for long. A rise in 10-year Treasury yields means mortgage rates will soon tick-up. That will weigh on housing demand, which had already been losing steam. Indeed, mortgage …
12th November 2020
Record low mortgage rates have continued to support home sales, with the pending homes sales index reaching its highest level since the series began in 2001. (See Chart 1.) But a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield implies mortgage rates will now tick-up. …
9th October 2020
Applications for home purchase have levelled off, but at a level 25% higher than a year ago. That is now feeding through to home sales, with the pending home sales index rising to a 15-year high in July. However, a lack of inventory will soon put a brake …
11th September 2020
Mortgage rates have continued to fall, hitting a record low 3.14% at the end of July. Alongside the reopening of parts of the economy, and pent-up demand from the spring, that has helped home sales bounce back strongly from their COVID-related dip. …
12th August 2020
After a brief pause in the second half of June, record low mortgage rates helped push applications for home purchase to an 11-year high in the first week of July. That will help reverse the earlier dip in existing home sales but, with credit conditions …
9th July 2020
By the end of May, mortgage applications for home purchase had fully reversed their earlier drop. (See Chart 1.) New home sales have also performed better than expected, with a surprise month-on-month rise in April. However, with credit conditions …
9th June 2020
The impact of the coronavirus is showing up in housing market activity. Pending home sales plummeted 21% m/m in March, which points to existing home sales falling to just over 4m annualised in April. (See Chart 1.) We expect they will eventually bottom …
12th May 2020
The coronavirus will cause a severe contraction in housing market activity. Mortgage applications for home purchase have already seen a 33% drop from their peak in late January. (See Chart 1.) A surge in unemployment to record highs, and restrictions on …
7th April 2020
With growing evidence that the coronavirus is turning into a pandemic, a hit to housing market activity is inevitable. No hard numbers have been released yet, but home sales are vulnerable to any disruption the virus will cause. Delaying a major purchase …
10th March 2020
A decline in apartment completions helped keep rental vacancy rates low over the latter part of 2019. But strong multifamily starts over the past couple of years suggest completions will pick-up in 2020. (See Chart 1.) That will lead to a modest rise in …
11th February 2020
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate ended 2019 at close to 4%, and it is set to stay at around that level over the next or so. But tighter credit conditions will offset some of the benefit of lower rates on housing demand, and existing home sales will be …
14th January 2020
Summary: A narrowing in the spread against the 10-year Treasury yield kept the 30-year mortgage rate close to 4% even as yields reached a three-month high in early November. Mortgage rates are likely to stay close to 4% over the next couple of years. But …
9th December 2019
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate increased to an eight-week high in October, which helps explain why mortgage applications for home purchase have been trending down since mid-September. A lack of inventory, slowing economy and tightening credit …
5th November 2019
Summary: A slowing economy has increased concerns around job security, which has weighed on mortgage applications for home purchase even as mortgage interest rates have stayed close to three-year lows. Coupled with low levels of home inventory, that will …
11th October 2019
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to its lowest level since late 2016, but that has not given much of a boost to home demand. Indeed, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over July and August. (See Chart 1.) A lack of …
11th September 2019
Summary: The fall in mortgage interest rates gave mortgage applications for home purchase a boost earlier this year, but a lack of inventory meant that did not translate into home sales. (See Chart 1.) Total single-family sales declined by 0.5% m/m in …
6th August 2019
Summary: Lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring an upturn in housing activity. True, there was a strong rise in mortgage approvals last month as borrowers took advantage of falling rates. But this was mainly due to refinancing, and house purchase …
9th July 2019
