Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
A pause in the fall in mortgage rates and a rise in the number of homes coming onto the market mean house price growth will stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut further than expected suggests that further reductions in …
26th March 2024
The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will cause a 3% increase in prices this year. The large rise in …
19th February 2024
London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other regions and the deterioration in affordability due to high …
25th January 2024
If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will boost demand as some first-time buyers who put their …
22nd January 2024
Large downward shifts in interest rate expectations mean that mortgage rates will continue to fall for the next month or two. That will support some recovery in activity and means that price declines are behind us for now at least. As we expect the Bank …
18th December 2023
Andrew Wishart, who leads our UK housing coverage, presented an Economic Update to attendees of the Land, Planning and Development Federation Annual Conference in London on the 30th November. The presentation addresses the questions: Is the economy in …
1st December 2023
London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates weigh particularly heavily on demand from mortgaged …
30th October 2023
Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5% and 6% until mid-2024. While transactions volumes have only seen a modest decline so far, very weak …
23rd October 2023
Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% until mid-2024. While transactions volumes have only seen a modest decline so far, we …
19th September 2023
Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% for the next 12 months. While transactions volumes have only seen a modest decline so far, …
25th August 2023
The further increase in mortgage rates to around 6% has left affordability particularly stretched in London. On top of the shift to remote working, which has allowed buyers to consider more affordable areas, that is likely to mean that buyer demand in …
10th July 2023
Higher mortgage rates have not only priced many buyers out of the market altogether, but also reduced the size of mortgage those still able to buy can take out. (See Chart 1.) The latest surge in mortgage rates to almost 6% means that, for the same …
28th June 2023
The larger than anticipated rebound in mortgage approvals in March and a slowdown (or even partial reversal) of house price falls suggested that the housing market downturn may have ended much earlier than we anticipated. The unwinding of some of the …
19th May 2023
The Land Registry report that London house price growth slowed to 3.2% y/y in January and more timely data based on mortgage approvals show a 2.2% y/y fall in prices in Q1. The detail suggests that affordability is becoming the primary driver of pricing. …
6th April 2023
The partial reversal of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget has helped to stem the deterioration in housing market demand. Our measure of the average quoted mortgage rate has fallen from a peak of 5.7% in October to 4.7% in February, …
30th March 2023
The survey data suggest that the modest decline in mortgage rates since October falls a long way short of what would be required for house prices to bottom out. The fall in market interest rates since the “mini” budget has allowed the average quoted …
16th February 2023
London house prices are likely to continue to underperform even if the shift in buyer demand away from the capital due to remote working ends. More stretched house prices in the capital prior to the jump in mortgage rates means the impact of higher …
3rd January 2023
The return of inflation for the first time in the inflation-targeting era has led to the biggest jump in Bank Rate and mortgage rates since the late 1980s. (See Chart 1.) The steady downward trend in mortgage rates from 6.5% in 2008 to 1.5% at the end …
19th December 2022
While interest rates are unlikely to rise as high as investors expected in the immediate aftermath of the “mini budget”, those hoping that the surge in mortgage rates since will be reversed are likely to be disappointed. Admittedly, the peak in Bank …
21st October 2022
London house prices and transactions have proven resilient to the headwinds of the cost-of-living crisis and rising mortgage rates so far. House price growth in London rose to 7.2% y/y in Q2, the highest since 2016. But that was still below the national …
13th September 2022
We now think that the reduction in consumer real incomes due to high inflation will push the economy into recession this year. But the Bank of England is likely to have to keep on raising interest rates regardless in order to bring inflation back down to …
29th July 2022
The rise in mortgage rates from a low of 1.5% last November to 1.8% in April is beginning to weigh on home purchase demand, with the new buyer enquiries balance of the RICS survey dropping into negative territory in May. Supply is also improving according …
20th June 2022
Despite the permanent increase in working from home, the end of pandemic restrictions has triggered a resurgence in demand in London’s rental and house purchase markets. Annual inflation in the ONS House Price Index for London has already risen from 3.8% …
22nd April 2022
Most leading indicators of housing market activity and house prices remain strikingly buoyant, but the first signs that demand will soften are now appearing. There is no question that house prices will continue to rise apace over the next few months. …
24th March 2022
Homeowners appear to be pressing ahead with plans to move house even though stamp duty is now fully reinstated. Transactions inevitably dipped last October as sales were rushed through in September to take advantage of the tax relief. But since then, they …
23rd February 2022
The jump in transactions during the pandemic was larger in London than other regions as the market didn’t experience the same drop in supply as elsewhere. That reflected many existing homeowners adjusting to remote working by moving further afield, giving …
25th January 2022
The continued strength of the housing market after the end of the stamp duty holiday shows that it was far more than the tax break that kept prices surging in 2021. The three key drivers of demand - low mortgage rates, high household saving, and a …
23rd December 2021
The end of the stamp duty holiday has had remarkably little impact on buyer demand. If anything, the imbalance between strong home purchase demand and limited supply is intensifying. Indeed, Rightmove reported that the average time to sell a home …
19th November 2021
While the UK has seen house prices boom over the past year, central London has not joined in as increased remote working led buyers to shun the capital for more space in the suburbs and further afield. (See Chart 1.) But indicators of demand show that it …
18th October 2021
There is no doubt that demand cooled after the stamp duty discount was reduced. But a collapse in new listings has eclipsed the decline in new buyer demand, suggesting that prices will at least hold their ground in Q4 when stamp duty returns to normal. …
21st September 2021
The housing market cooled in July as the stamp duty holiday began to unwind. Newly agreed sales and buyer enquiries dropped back, annual house price growth began to stabilise, and transactions fell. However, the RICS balances compare activity to the …
25th August 2021
London house prices have underperformed the national average over the past year as the pandemic has led to a shift in demand away from inner cities. Arguably London was due a period of weaker price growth even before the pandemic hit, following the …
2nd July 2021
The housing market has had its busiest start to the year for 14 years as changing preferences due to the pandemic, forced saving, low mortgage rates, and the stamp duty holiday have led swathes of existing homeowners to enter the market. We estimate that …
17th June 2021
While London house price growth and transactions volumes have underperformed their national equivalents over the past year, they have been robust in absolute terms. Indeed, the peak in house price growth of 6.7% y/y in November 2020 marked a four-year …
1st April 2021
There were signs that buyer demand would hold up well this year even before the government announced the extension to the stamp duty holiday in the Budget. Since then, Google searches for property portals have surged to a six-year high. A further …
17th March 2021
There are clear signs that the end of the stamp duty holiday is causing the housing market to slow. In January the RICS reported a sharp drop in new buyer enquiries and seller instructions, and house prices edged down for the first time since last summer. …
16th February 2021
After falling in May and June, house prices shrugged off the collapse in GDP and the decline in employment to surge in the second half of the year. (See Chart 1.) As a result, annual house price growth in Q4 is on track to be just over 6%, the strongest …
18th December 2020
The increase in working from home that appears to have led buyers to put less emphasis on location and more on space has not undermined London house prices. As of September, house price growth in the capital of 4.1% y/y was only marginally below that in …
9th December 2020
Housing market activity is booming as pent up demand from the first lockdown is expended and buyers rush to take advantage of the stamp duty cut. There are some tentative signs, though, that the surge in house prices over the summer is starting to …
11th November 2020
London’s housing recovery is lagging the rest of the UK. The post-lockdown rise in housing demand has been weaker than elsewhere, while the latest evidence points to no resurgence in house price growth. This trend may reflect the rise in working from …
25th September 2020
The housing market has so far seen a V shaped recovery. House purchase mortgage approvals have already recovered to their pre-virus level, while house prices have reversed the dip recorded earlier in the year. But as pent-up demand is expended and the …
16th September 2020
Despite a rather lacklustre economic recovery, the housing market is already turning the corner. Demand has bounced back, helped by a decline in mortgage interest rates. The stamp duty cut will provide further support to housing transactions over the next …
11th August 2020
The coronavirus extinguished a nascent surge in London house prices in Q1. Instead, housing demand in the capital collapsed during lockdown, and has been comparatively slow to return. That underperformance is likely to continue in the near-term, as virus …
1st July 2020
While the housing market has reopened, there are still limited data on the pace of improvement. Given the economic damage, uncertainty and weak pipeline of in-progress housing sales, we expect the recovery in activity to be gradual. Meanwhile, the main …
10th June 2020
The housing market ground to a halt in response to the coronavirus lockdown, but looking ahead, restrictions on housing activity have been eased. Still, the huge hit to the economy from the virus combined with weakened buyer confidence suggests that the …
20th May 2020
While London’s housing market showed signs of life in the first quarter, the coronavirus has ended any hope of a recovery. Indeed, like the rest of the UK, London housing transactions are set to collapse over the next three months, although house prices …
8th April 2020
Measures of activity and house price pressures were strong in February. But with the coronavirus set to disrupt activity and confidence over the next few months, the housing market recovery is unlikely to last beyond March. Economic indicators point to a …
13th March 2020
House price growth and transactions picked up, as political uncertainty eased following December’s general election. In the near term, leading indicators hint at a further recovery over the remainder of Q1. But with house prices high and interest rates …
6th February 2020
Downward price pressures in London have eased, driven by a slump in homes coming up for sale. But with house prices high and mortgage interest rates close to their floor, that is unlikely to drive a recovery in prices soon. Rather, we expect a 1% fall in …
20th December 2019
Housing market activity and house price growth showed few signs of improvement at the end of 2019. Indeed, activity has, if anything, been cooling. (See Chart 1.) That partly reflects economic and political uncertainty. But the big picture is that high …
9th December 2019
