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Further attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refining sector were the major driver of crude prices this week with the price of Brent remaining firmly above $85 per barrel. Reports that the US had urged Ukraine to halt the strikes may have tempered the price …
22nd March 2024
It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refineries. While, in …
15th March 2024
The rally in the spot price of gold this week to a new record high of over $2,170 per ounce was the result of several financial and macro drivers that should generally keep prices elevated over 2024. Investors grew more confident that the Fed would begin …
8th March 2024
Cut, cut, cut … oh no, we’ve lost market share According to reports, OPEC+ members will make a decision in the coming week on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts. A number of possibilities have been mooted, ranging from extending cuts for …
1st March 2024
There was no clear direction to prices this week, but a number of individual commodities benefitted from producers announcing cuts to supply. First signs of a pull-back in US natural gas supply Having plummeted in recent weeks, the price of US natural gas …
23rd February 2024
The plunge in natural gas prices breathed some life into what was otherwise a relatively quiet week in commodity markets. Prices have fallen heavily in most major gas markets as stocks remain high for this time of the year. In the US, the House of …
16th February 2024
The price of cocoa was the star performer this week in commodity markets , rising by 16% on the week. The price has risen by 40% since the start of this year, on the back of consistently poor harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Meanwhile, conflict in the …
9th February 2024
We have revised down our forecast for US natural gas prices this year, as the outlook for domestic supply has improved. In the near term, a perfect storm of impediments to exports has emerged and sent spot prices tumbling. Henry Hub was down by over 20% …
2nd February 2024
It was generally a positive week for commodity prices and particularly for industrial metals prices. (See Chart 1.) All major industrial metals finished the week higher, with gains in the region of ~5% for some such as tin and zinc. Chart 1: S&P GSCI …
26th January 2024
This week was a mixed bag for commodities . Gold and silver prices fell as US interest rate expectations rose and the dollar strengthened. By contrast, natural gas prices in the US and Europe edged higher on the back of forecasts for colder weather in the …
5th January 2024
Most commodity prices fell this week as the Federal Reserve left the door open to another interest rate hike before the end of the year , and indicated that rates will remain higher for longer. However, we are sticking with our view that US inflation will …
22nd September 2023
Most commodity prices rose this week (see Chart 1) after data showed that US labour market conditions are easing (see here and here ), lowering expectations for US interest rates and weakening the dollar. Chart 1: S&P GSCI Sub-Indices (2 nd Jan. 2023 = …
1st September 2023
Note: We’ll be discussing the radical shake-up facing global energy markets and our long-term energy demand and climate forecasts on Wednesday, 17th May at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST. Register here. The demand backdrop for commodities appears weak. While oil …
12th May 2023
Commodity prices generally fell earlier this week on the back of investors’ growing concerns about the outlook for commodities demand. Later in the week, the release of softer-than-expected US Q1 GDP data did nothing to soothe those fears. We expect …
28th April 2023
Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news that China would relax some pandemic-related …
2nd December 2022
We are sceptical that commodity demand growth in China is about to reignite, despite this week’s cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks and data showing surprisingly strong imports of key commodities in November . After all, both …
10th December 2021
Aside from coal and natural gas, the prices of most commodities fell this week in tandem with the declines in global equity markets . Investors are concerned about rising inflation, particularly in the US, and have seemingly reduced their exposure to …
14th May 2021
Commodity prices pushed higher yet again this week . Most notably, the seemingly unassailable climb in industrial metals prices saw the price of copper push above $10,000 per tonne for the first time since 2011. However, it is still difficult to square …
7th May 2021
It was another good week for commodity prices, with the exception of precious metals . Somewhat better-than-expected Q1 GDP and survey data, particularly in the euro-zone, was one factor fuelling expectations of stronger demand. The pick-up in vaccination …
30th April 2021
Most commodity prices increased this week, with the prices of agricultural commodities rising particularly strongly . The prices of corn, soybeans and wheat surged, reaching new multi-year highs on the back of adverse weather in the US and Brazil. In …
23rd April 2021
Most commodity prices rose this week following a batch of positive economic data releases . Oil prices were up particularly strongly on the back of a larger-than-expected weekly decline in US crude stocks and an upward revision to the International Energy …
16th April 2021
It was a relatively quiet week in commodities markets, with weakness in the US dollar giving agricultural commodities, in particular, a bit of a lift. We think markets could struggle to find a clear direction in the coming weeks given the mixed messages …
9th April 2021
The decision earlier today by OPEC+ to ease its oil production cuts from May means that production from the group will be slightly higher than we had previously anticipated in Q2 . However, the rise in OPEC+ production will only be gradual, and with the …
1st April 2021
Commodities markets were something of a mixed bag this week . The grounding of a container ship in the Suez Canal helped to prop up the prices of some commodities despite growing worries over the potential hit to demand in Europe from the slow vaccine …
26th March 2021
Commodities markets experienced a bit of a reality check this week, with prices falling despite little material change in the underlying demand and supply fundamentals . In the same way that optimism about demand pushed up oil prices in recent months, …
19th March 2021
Despite big moves in bond and equity markets, commodity markets were fairly subdued this week . Nevertheless, we expect oil prices to break higher again before long, and our new forecasts show them peaking in Q3 (compared to Q4 previously) . Meanwhile, we …
12th March 2021
It was a relatively two-sided affair in commodities markets this week. On the one hand, oil prices rose on the back of greater-than-expected output restraint announced by OPEC+. And on the other hand, a partial unwinding of investor optimism weighed on …
5th March 2021
A spike in government bond yields and subsequent sell-off in equity markets caused the broad-based rally in commodity prices to go into reverse late in the week . That said, most industrial commodity prices still managed to end the week higher. …
26th February 2021
Abnormally cold temperatures in the US, particularly Texas, have forced a significant share of US oil wells and refineries offline this week. Oil prices initially surged on the back of this disruption, but they have since retraced most of their gains. In …
19th February 2021
The price of Brent crude oil breached the $60 per barrel mark this week for the first time in over a year, in a continuation of its strong performance since COVID-19 vaccines were announced in November. Given our upbeat oil demand outlook for H2 2021, we …
12th February 2021
In an otherwise fairly quiet week, some wild gyrations in the silver market were the focus of investor attention . Starting late last week, the price of silver surged by 20% to reach a multi-year high on Monday. Reportedly, the retail investors that had …
5th February 2021
It was another largely uneventful week in commodity markets . For all the talk of an impending ‘super cycle’, the prices of most commodities have generally continued to struggle to extend the large gains made towards the end of last year. In fact, as we …
29th January 2021
Despite some parts of China re-introducing lockdown measures and reported virus cases around the world continuing to spiral upwards, the prices of most commodities held up well this week as investor enthusiasm for risky assets remains high. We suspect …
22nd January 2021
After the broad-based rally of the last few weeks, the prices of many industrial commodities dipped a little this week, reflecting concerns about rising new virus cases and the widespread tightening of virus containment measures . The rally may well …
15th January 2021
After a strong finish to 2020, most commodity prices built on their gains in the first week of January , as investor sentiment continued to prove supportive and Saudi Arabia announced that it would unilaterally cut oil production in February and March. In …
8th January 2021
We think that the price of oil will outperform most other commodity prices next year . A lifting of virus restrictions, as vaccines are rolled out, should allow for a strong bounce-back in oil demand and prices in the second half of next year, whereas we …
18th December 2020
Despite the re-introduction of lockdown measures in some US states, industrial commodities prices continued to rise this week on the back of ongoing hopes of a vaccine-induced economic boom next year . Nevertheless, we think that the risks to most of our …
11th December 2020
After much wrangling, this week OPEC+ agreed to a partial roll over of its current collective output cut into next year. But the obvious divisions between members of the group mean the question marks over the future direction of oil supply are as large as …
4th December 2020
All eyes in the oil market will be on the OPEC and OPEC+ meetings on Monday and Tuesday next week . Given the renewed imposition of virus-related restrictions in Western economies, the near-term prospects for oil demand have deteriorated. Accordingly, we …
27th November 2020
Most commodity prices rose this week, buoyed by news of further progress on COVID-19 vaccines. A rapid roll out of an effective vaccine suggests that economic activity, particularly in the US and EU, would be stronger than otherwise, which is positive …
20th November 2020
Commodity prices benefitted from news of a potential vaccine for COVID-19 this week . The resulting boost to risk appetite pushed equities and most commodity prices higher, with the exception of precious metals. That said, while a vaccine points to …
13th November 2020
Commodity markets shrugged off the uncertainty surrounding the US election and took direction from equity markets and the US dollar this week . Most commodity prices rose as equities jumped and the dollar weakened. However, the likelihood of a President …
6th November 2020
A lack of any detail in China’s Five-Year Plan and concerns about virus lockdown measures weighed on the prices of industrial metals this week . It now looks as though we will have to wait until Match for more information on the five-year plan. Next week, …
30th October 2020
Data showing that the Chinese economy continued to rebound last quarter and that growth was accelerating heading into Q4 gave a lift to most industrial metals prices this week . Given China’s share of global metals consumption is far greater than its …
23rd October 2020
Despite further signs of strength in China’s manufacturing sector, the prices of most industrial commodities – as well as gold and silver – fell this week owing in large part to an appreciation of the US dollar . However, the ongoing fiscal stimulus in …
4th September 2020
Industrial metals prices pushed higher this week, while the prices of oil and gold were broadly flat . For now, the robust recovery in Chinese demand for metal still seems to be enough to offset weaker demand elsewhere. That said, the latest PMI data …
21st August 2020
Upbeat manufacturing data from the US and China bolstered risk appetite this week, helping the prices of industrial commodities record another strong week . However, precious metals prices also did well, as further declines in real interest rates in the …
7th August 2020
A raft of positive Chinese economic data this week offered some support to commodity prices, but concerns about the rise in coronavirus infections in the US and in Latin America prevented any significant gains . Oil prices dipped on news that OPEC will …
17th July 2020
The prices of most commodities rose this week, with the exception of energy . In particular, industrial metal prices rose alongside Chinese equities. Elsewhere, the European economic recovery is starting to look remarkably V-shaped, despite localised …
10th July 2020
Commodity prices tumbled this week, echoing moves in other financial markets . Oil was among the worst performers as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will ramp up output from April, after OPEC+ abandoned its efforts to balance the oil market …
13th March 2020