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Oil output will be more constrained in the second half of this year if the OPEC+ members stick to their recently-announced production quotas. However, we have also raised our forecast of Russian production given the persistent strength in its exports. As …
5th June 2023
Commodity markets were not spared the effects of widespread turmoil in the global banking system. Most prices ended the week lower as investors fled risky assets. The gold and silver prices bucked this trend and surged higher; unsurprising in a week …
17th March 2023
Global biofuel production unlikely to ramp up anytime soon … … as governments instead prioritise EVs as the future of green transport. As such, elevated food prices shouldn’t be exacerbated by biofuels competing for crops. Global food prices are at …
28th November 2022
OPEC supply drops but further falls to come OPEC’s monthly report for October showed a sharp drop in the group’s production, and further falls are likely if members are to abide by their new quotas from November. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for …
14th November 2022
Disruption to supply rather than strong demand has pushed prices higher Ample stocks and bearish financial market backdrop create potential for sharp price fall But the risk premia will be structurally higher in agricultural prices going forward The last …
31st May 2022
Ukraine’s grain exports will fall sharply in the 2022/23 season Grain prices should fall back to pre-war levels, although these are still historically high But in an extreme scenario, prices would stay much higher for longer Grains prices have skyrocketed …
31st March 2022
Commodity supply shortages have been widespread over the last year or so There doesn’t appear to be a single cause of these shortages But a key theme is that prices are now close to a peak (if they haven’t peaked already) In this Commodities Watch , we …
21st December 2021
Natural gas prices have soared and are likely to remain historically high for some time But there has not been an underlying structural shift up in demand And high prices will incentivise supply At the time of writing, global natural gas prices are …
1st October 2021
The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect Brent to fall into the $60-70 range in 2022 as more global …
19th July 2021
Biden’s infrastructure package is ambitious, but we doubt it will pass in its current form If it did pass, the impact on energy markets could be large But we doubt it would be too significant for industrial metals markets In this Commodities Watch , we …
14th May 2021
China has ramped up its imports of agricultural commodities since mid-2020 Alongside investor speculation, this has helped push prices to multi-year highs But we expect Chinese imports to taper off this year, which will weigh on prices In this Commodities …
26th February 2021
Strong Chinese demand has fuelled a rally in commodity prices But history suggests that prices will fall back as stimulus is withdrawn That said, the “greening” of the global economy is a medium-term positive for metals The latest rally in many commodity …
8th February 2021
Stimulus announced at China’s NPC is positive for commodities demand and prices But credit growth will be much lower than it was post-GFC Accordingly, the stimulus is unlikely to send prices soaring like in 2009 China’s stimulus spending in 2009 in the …
29th May 2020
Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that it is already producing well below quota . This could …
6th December 2019
Demand should start to recover next year With subdued growth in supply, the market is likely to move into deficit But stocks are high, which will act as a lid on prices In this Commodities Watch , we are initiating coverage of natural rubber . As it …
25th September 2019
A sharp drop in mortgage rates has boosted activity in the US housing market However, the outlook for lumber-intensive housing starts is not all that bright The latest rally in US lumber prices is therefore likely to unwind After falling sharply over the …
12th July 2019