Filtered by Subscriptions: Commodities Overview Use setting Commodities Overview
Recent increases in natural gas prices in Europe have predictably been mirrored in the EU carbon price, which has risen from a 31-month low of €52 per tonne in February to €71 at the time of writing. The rise in European natural gas prices has been driven …
18th April 2024
We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under prices. Natural gas and coal prices will also fall owing …
12th March 2024
Oil prices are likely to remain buffeted by supply fears as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues. However, we think there will be support on the demand side later in the year as monetary policy in most major economies is loosened. By …
6th February 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
Following a period of upward pressure on renewable and battery costs in recent years, the tide is turning once again. This partly reflects declines in key input costs such as lithium, as well as huge growth in global manufacturing capacity, particularly …
18th January 2024
Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
5th January 2024
Energy and precious metal prices will remain volatile while there is a risk that the war between Israel and Hamas expands to include other countries in the region. For now, energy supplies have been largely uninterrupted, and prices should remain close to …
3rd November 2023
2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record, but somewhat ominously the headwinds to the green transition have strengthened this year. Some of these will prove temporary, particularly as short-term policy interest rates start to come down. That …
19th October 2023
Prices will remain buffeted by weak global economic growth and a strong dollar, at a time of mounting supply risks and some policy stimulus in China. These conflicting pressures suggest that prices will be fairly rangebound in the coming months. In …
8th September 2023
Weak economic activity in developed economies and a stronger dollar will temper gains in most commodity prices over the rest of the year. In oil markets, Saudi Arabia’s output cuts have kept supply constrained while demand in the US and China has held up. …
9th August 2023
China’s recent announcement of export restrictions on two metals used to make semiconductors serves as a reminder that China dominates production of metals needed for the green transition. We have warned in the past that the green transition is unlikely …
20th July 2023
Overview – Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand loomed large and the US dollar strengthened. We think that prices will continue to struggle over the next few months, but energy and metals prices should rise …
7th June 2023
Overview – Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand have intensified and risk appetite has soured. We think prices will continue to struggle over the next few months as tight monetary policy feeds into slowdowns …
16th May 2023
In this new quarterly publication, the Capital Economics’ Climate and Commodities teams will track and analyse developments in the transition to a greener global economy. The sharp increases in the lifetime costs of wind and solar projects since 2021 …
26th April 2023
Overview – We think prices will drop a little further in the coming months as economic slowdowns in advanced economies weigh on commodities demand, even as China’s economic recovery takes hold. However, the prospect of a higher for longer Federal Funds …
2nd March 2023
Overview – We think prices will ease back in the coming months as optimism about China’s reopening is tempered and slower economic activity in advanced economies weighs on demand. However, the prospect of Fed easing and stronger economic growth in 2024 …
3rd February 2023
Overview – We think slower global economic activity and a somewhat stronger US dollar will weigh on commodities prices in the coming months. However, the recession should prove relatively shallow and we expect prices to be picking up in late 2023, boosted …
5th December 2022
Overview – Energy prices have been falling recently as concerns about weaker demand took centre-stage, but we expect constrained supply to put a floor under prices in the coming months. By contrast, we expect industrial metals prices to fall further given …
14th September 2022
Overview – Non-energy commodities prices generally fell in June on the back of concerns about the outlook for demand amid global monetary tightening and slower economic growth. Energy prices may also fall a little from here, but constrained supply will …
6th July 2022
Overview – Energy and agricultural prices continued to rise in May as concerns about supply more than offset signs that demand, at least for energy, could soften. We expect prices to remain historically high but to start to ease back later in the year as …
7th June 2022
Overview – Commodity prices remain extremely volatile owing to the uncertainty stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine, and we doubt that they will find a clear direction anytime soon. However, assuming the war-related uncertainty begins to ease somewhat …
5th April 2022
Overview – Two themes have dominated commodity markets at the turn of the year: the ongoing shortage of energy commodities and the global rise in cases of COVID-19. On the former, we think that shortages will start to ease meaningfully later this year, …
7th January 2022
Overview – Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has generally focused on the effects that the new strain …
7th December 2021
Overview – Natural gas and coal prices soared in September. In turn, this has raised the output costs of industrial metals, most notably those which are especially energy intensive such as aluminium and steel. At the same time, reports suggest that some …
5th October 2021
Overview – After sharp falls in the middle of the month, most commodity prices ended August broadly flat. However, we doubt it will be long before the downward pressure on prices intensifies again. After all, economic growth in most major economies now …
3rd September 2021
Overview – Oil prices were rising in June even before the July OPEC+ meeting ended in disarray, without agreement. Strong growth in demand as economies lift virus-related restrictions is expected to continue to support the prices of all energy commodities …
6th July 2021
Overview – Prices generally rose in May, bolstered by signs of recovery in the global economy – led by the US – and stronger commodities demand. While prices could make further gains in the near term, we expect the prices of most commodities to be in …
2nd June 2021
Overview – A rise in new coronavirus infections in many parts of the world, including Europe and India, weighed on investor sentiment in commodity markets in March. However, all the signs point to a rapid recovery in US activity and, as vaccines are …
7th April 2021
Overview – Most commodity prices rose in February encouraged by falling COVID-19 infections and the vaccine rollout, which point to a recovery in economic activity and higher commodities demand later in the year. That said, we expect oil to be the main …
1st March 2021
Overview – Commodity prices rose in December in spite of a tightening of COVID-19 restrictions in a number of developed economies, which will weigh on commodities demand at the start of this year. Markets seem to be focusing on a brightening demand …
5th January 2021
Overview – A flurry of positive news surrounding effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most commodity prices in November, as a faster easing of virus containment measures next year should provide a lift to demand. While we think that oil prices will …
1st December 2020
Overview – An uptick in COVID-19 cases in India and in developed economies knocked back many commodity prices in September, with few left in positive territory for the month. And although September’s price action reminds us that downside risks to …
1st October 2020
Overview – Ongoing fiscal stimulus in China, coupled with the recent depreciation of the US dollar, is boosting commodity prices. China’s commodity imports are also growing strongly, but we suspect that the pace of purchases may slow soon as higher prices …
2nd September 2020
Overview – The more industrial commodities performed particularly strongly in June on the back of the ongoing revival in global economic activity. We have become more positive on the outlook for industrial metals prices this year given higher …
2nd July 2020
Overview – The prices of most commodities rose in May on the back of the ongoing recovery in China’s economic activity and a gradual easing of lockdown conditions in the US and Europe. We think that most prices will make further gains from here, but they …
2nd June 2020
Overview – The prices of most commodities struggled in April against a backdrop of moribund global demand. That said, the performance of energy commodities was mixed: while Brent crude and Henry Hub gas rose in price, the other energy commodities fell. We …
5th May 2020
Overview – Oil prices plummeted in March under the weight of a collapse in demand and pledges from OPEC+ members to significantly raise output. Most other commodity prices also fell last month as the COVID-19 virus spread from Asia to Europe and the US. …
1st April 2020
Overview – Commodity prices continued to fall in February as the coronavirus, which started in China, spread to most other regions of the world and sparked fears of a slowdown in global economic activity. We have revised down our forecasts of commodities …
4th March 2020
Overview – Commodity prices, and energy prices in particular, have been hard hit by the outbreak of coronavirus in China and the prospect of lower global commodities demand. There is still too much uncertainty to factor the virus into our forecasts. But …
4th February 2020
Overview – The prospect of a ‘Phase One’ trade deal between the US and China buoyed commodity prices in December. Although we expect trade tensions to remain elevated, we think that most commodity prices will rise in the year ahead as fears of a global …
6th January 2020
Overview – Commodity prices struggled to find direction in November despite the release of somewhat stronger economic data. Meanwhile, developments on the US-China trade front remained a key driver of sentiment. While a “phase one” trade deal seems likely …
3rd December 2019
Overview – The apparent thaw in the US-China trade dispute gave a lift to the prices of most industrial commodities in October. However, we are sceptical that a lasting resolution to the trade conflict will be reached. Instead, we think that the ongoing …
31st October 2019
Overview – Oil prices dipped in September despite the attacks on Saudi Aramco. In contrast, the prices of most other commodities increased owing to a rise in investor risk appetite. However, we expect US equities to fall in the coming months, which should …
1st October 2019
Overview – The escalation in US-China trade tensions led to investors becoming more risk averse, which boosted the prices of gold and silver but depressed the prices of agricultural and industrial commodities. Looking ahead, we expect trade tensions to …
4th September 2019
Overview – With the exception of the precious metals, most commodity prices drifted lower in July on concerns about soft demand. Given our forecast of slower global economic growth in the second half of this year, we expect the prices of most energy and …
31st July 2019
Overview – While June was a relatively positive month for commodity prices, we think that a combination of slower global growth and waning risk appetite will lead to lower prices for energy and industrial metals later in the year. Energy – Oil prices …
3rd July 2019
