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Inflation edges down and will remain low Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed to 1.6% y/y in March on the back of weaker food and non-food inflation. While there’s likely to be a slight bump up in inflation in the second half of this year, the …
15th April 2024
Inflation eases even after currency plunge Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed to 33.3% y/y in March despite the near 40% fall in the pound’s official exchange rate last month. That said, the effects of the currency fall will continue to feed through …
8th April 2024
A soft end to Q1, but the Gulf economies still going strong March’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that, despite a minor tick down in the survey readings, the Gulf states enjoyed a strong start to 2024. Saudi Arabia’s survey edged down from 57.2 in …
3rd April 2024
Inflation nudges up as rents continue to rise The increase in Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate to 1.8% y/y in February is the highest reading since August and it could creep to above 2.0% y/y in the coming quarters. The bigger picture, however, is …
14th March 2024
We hosted a Drop-in following the announcement that can be viewed on demand here . Central Bank of Egypt shifts back towards orthodoxy The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a …
6th March 2024
Gulf non-oil sectors strengthen in Q1; Egypt’s economy knocked by Israel-Hamas spillovers February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But …
5th March 2024
This webpage has been updated with additional analaysis, as well as a chart and table of key data. Inflation to remain low this year and next Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged up from a two-year low of 1.5% y/y in December to 1.6% y/y in …
15th February 2024
Inflation continues to slow, but looming devaluation will keep it high Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month, easing from 33.6% y/y in December to 29.9% y/y in January. We think inflation will continue to slow this year, …
8th February 2024
2023 a poor year for the Kingdom’s economy, but the recession is over The flash estimate of Saudi Arabia’s GDP for Q4 of last year showed that the economy expanded by 0.4% q/q, the first positive outturn since the period a year before. We expect the …
31st January 2024
Inflation ends 2023 on a softer note Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 1.7% y/y in November to 1.5% y/y in December, the weakest pace recorded since January 2022. And we expect that inflation will continue to ease at the start of this …
15th January 2024
Inflation slowing, but will remain above target until mid-2025 Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased for a third consecutive from 34.6% y/y in November to 33.6% y/y in December. Comments last night suggest that an enhanced IMF deal is near, which is …
10th January 2024
Rise in inflation likely to be short lived Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate rose a touch, from 1.6% y/y in October to 1.7% y/y in November (see Chart 1), which is still low by the standards of the past two years. And we think disinflation will …
14th December 2023
This report has been updated with additional analysis, including the release of the UAE's PMI on 6th December. Gulf non-oil sectors cushioning slowdown; Egypt’s economy sputtering along The batch of PMIs for November from the Middle East and North Africa …
5th December 2023
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of key data. Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.6% y/y in October, the weakest pace of inflation in nearly two years, and …
15th November 2023
CBE stands pat as all eyes turn to post-election meeting The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left its overnight deposit rate at 19.25% today but, with pressure on the pound mounting and inflation still well above target, there’s a good chance that …
2nd November 2023
Recession deepens on the back of voluntary oil production cut Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the recession deepened in Q3, with GDP contracting by 3.9% q/q, after the Kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut and …
31st October 2023
This report has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a chart and table of the key data. Inflation at or close to its peak Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up from 37.4% y/y in August to a fresh multi-decade high of 38.0% y/y in …
10th October 2023
This report has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart of the key data. Gulf non-oil sectors cushioning slowdown; Egypt’s economy sputtering along The September release of PMIs for the Middle East and North Africa showed that activity …
3rd October 2023
We have updated this webpage with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of the key data. Inflation slows to weakest pace in a year and will ease further Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 2.3% y/y in July to 2.0% y/y in August, …
14th September 2023
This report has been updated with additional analysis and a chart of the key data. Gulf non-oil sectors cooling off, Egyptian inflation pressures still building August’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the …
5th September 2023
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of key data. Inflation slows to weakest pace in a year and will ease further Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate eased from 2.7% y/y in June to 2.3% y/y in July, the …
15th August 2023
Inflation hits fresh record high, CBE has more work to do Egypt’s headline inflation hit a fresh record high of 36.5% y/y in July and, with a fresh devaluation of the pound on the cards in the coming months, it will remain elevated for some time. The …
10th August 2023
Further pressure on the CBE as inflation accelerates to an all-time high This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of key data. Egypt’s inflation rate rose from 32.7% y/y in May to a record high of 35.7% y/y in …
10th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and a Chart of the key data. Gulf non-hydrocarbon sectors enter second half of the year with strong momentum June’s batch of PMIs for the region improved almost entirely across the board and the strength …
5th July 2023
We will update the linked webpage with additional analysis during the next hour. Inflation edges up, but should resume slowdown over the rest of the year Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate rose a touch to 2.8% y/y in May, as an acceleration in non-food …
15th June 2023
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data. Inflation steady, but should resume its slowdown over the rest of the year Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate was unchanged at 2.7% y/y in April, as an increase in non-food inflation offset …
15th May 2023
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis and key chart and table of data. Inflation eases, but another rate hike on the cards next Thursday Egypt’s inflation rate slowed from a near-five-year high of 32.7% y/y in March to 30.6% y/y in April, …
10th May 2023
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis and a chart of key data. Non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf continue to enjoy a strong start to 2023 April’s PMIs for the region showed that activity in private non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf …
3rd May 2023
This report has been updated with an additional table and chart of the key data. Price pressures continue to ease Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 3.0% y/y in February to 2.7% y/y in March as both food and non-food inflation decreased …
13th April 2023
Note: Join our 6 th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Gulf non-oil sectors still leading the pack; Egypt price pressures starting to ease March’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in non-oil sectors …
4th April 2023
Yesterday, OPEC+ members announced voluntary cuts to production from May until the end of the year. In total, the cuts amount to 1.16m bpd or about 1.1% of global supply, with Saudi Arabia accounting for the lion’s share of 0.5m bpd. At the same time, …
3rd April 2023
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . CBE delivers, but more tightening still needed The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced that it raised interest rates by 200bp, taking the overnight …
30th March 2023
This report has been updated with additional analysis and a table and chart of key data. Inflation past its peak Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed to 3.0% y/y in February on the back of an easing of both food and non-food inflation. We think …
15th March 2023
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, Chart and Table of key figures. Inflation continues to soar, tightening cycle to resume Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to 31.9% y/y in February, leaving it just shy of an all-time high and …
9th March 2023
This report has been updated with additional analysis and a Table and Chart of key data. Inflation edges higher to its peak Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate nudged up from 3.3% y/y in December to 3.4% y/y in January, which came on the back of a …
15th February 2023
This page has been updated with an additional chart and table of the key data. Inflation jumps to fastest pace since 2017 as food inflation hits record high Egypt’s headline inflation rate climbed from 21.3% y/y in December to 25.8% y/y in January, its …
9th February 2023
This page has been updated with table and charts of key figures. Growth slow to round off a bumper 2022 The flash estimate for Saudi Arabia’s economy showed GDP expanded by a solid 1.5% q/q in Q4, but year-on-year growth continued to soften and we expect …
31st January 2023
This report has been updated with additional table and chart of key data. Inflation surges higher on back of weaker pound Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 18.7% y/y in November to 21.3% y/y in December, its fastest pace since the end of 2017. (See …
10th January 2023
CBE acts aggressively to counter inflation surge and weaker pound The 300bp interest rate hike by the Egyptian Central Bank (CBE), which took the overnight deposit rate to 16.25%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about rising inflation …
22nd December 2022
This report has been updated with additional analysis, table and chart of key figures. Inflation on the way down Saudi inflation ticked down to 2.9% y/y in November on the back of a drop in food inflation. We think the headline rate will continue to fall …
15th December 2022
This page has been updated with additional analysis, chart, and table of key figures. Jump in inflation a sign of things to come; tightening still on the agenda Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 16.2% y/y in October to 18.7% y/y in November – its …
8th December 2022
This page has been updated with additional analysis and chart. Gulf non-oil sectors ending 2022 on a strong note November’s batch of PMIs provide further evidence that the non-oil sectors in the Gulf economies are rounding off the year on a strong …
5th December 2022
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, table, and chart of key data. Inflation passed its peak Saudi inflation eased a touch from 3.1% y/y in September to 3.0% y/y in October (Consensus: 3.0% y/y; CE: 2.8% y/y) and we think the headline …
15th November 2022
PMIs picked up last month, regional divergence continues This page has been updated with additional content. October’s batch of PMIs picked up in most of the region but there remains a stark divergence in growth prospects between the Gulf and non-Gulf …
3rd November 2022
Egypt’s central bank has just announced that it is shifting to a more flexible exchange rate regime, which we think will result in the pound falling 18% to 24/$ by end-2023 if not sooner. The move will result in some short-term economic pain but it will …
27th October 2022
Having prepped the market well beforehand, OPEC+ announced a 2mn bpd cut to its production quota from November. Of course, given that the group has been producing significantly below its quota, the decline in physical supply will be much less, though …
5th October 2022
Abdalla begins with a hold as pressures mount on pound The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates on hold, at 11.25%, in the first meeting under new caretaker governor Hassan Abdalla but, with pressure mounting on the pound, we still think …
18th August 2022
