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This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Rise in output doesn’t improve poor outlook for industry Euro-zone industrial production rose in January, but the level of output is still weak and the outlook is poor. The 0.8% …
15th April 2024
Updated guidance suggests that June cut is likely The ECB’s decision to update its guidance suggests that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June is very likely. In the press conference, Christine Lagarde won’t give a clear signal about the path …
11th April 2024
Some signs of life from German industry, but outlook still poor The second consecutive large monthly rise in German industrial production in February confirms the sector has started the year on a better note. But we still expect it to struggle over the …
8th April 2024
Surprise fall in Swiss inflation raises odds of further SNB rate cuts The further fall in Swiss inflation in March reinforces our view that the SNB will cut rates by a further 50bp this year. We have pencilled in the next rate cut for September, but there …
4th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Falling inflation points to June rate cut The fall in both headline and core inflation in March suggests that the ECB is very likely to begin cutting interest rates in June. The …
3rd April 2024
National data point to fall in euro-zone inflation The fall in CPI inflation in the major German states in March all but confirms that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation will come in lower than expected in March. This will please ECB policymakers, …
2nd April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. EC Survey points to stagnant economy and still-high price pressures The EC business and consumer survey for March reinforces the message that the economy is close to recession …
27th March 2024
Riksbank Policy Announcement (March 2024) Riksbank confirms rate cuts imminent The Rikbsank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.0% today was no surprise and the press release confirms that policymakers expect to cut rates soon. We are …
Germany Ifo Survey (March 2024) Although the Ifo Business Climate Index rose quite sharply in March, much of the improvement was in the volatile expectations component and it remained at an exceptionally low level. We still think the economy is likely to …
22nd March 2024
SNB kicks off rate-cutting cycle The SNB became the first G10 central bank to cut rates this policy cycle, reducing its policy rate by 25bp to 1.5% today. This was in line with our non-consensus forecast, and with the Bank sounding more dovish and …
21st March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stagnation continues, price pressures still high The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, in line with our forecast. Meanwhile, the price …
Sweden CPI (February) Rapid disinflation sets up May rate February's inflation data will strengthen policymakers' conviction that they can begin to cut interest rates in May. The fall the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the …
14th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Output to continue falling Euro-zone industrial production fell in January and is likely to continue contracting in the coming months due to weak demand. The 3.2% m/m decrease in …
13th March 2024
Further easing in core inflation sets up Q2 rate cut February’s inflation data from Norway strengthen our conviction that Norges Bank will cut interest rates much sooner than its forecasts suggest. The decline in headline inflation from 5.3% in January to …
11th March 2024
German Industrial Production (January) January increase but activity still weak The rise in Germany industrial production in January reverses only a fraction of the previous falls and does not change our view that the sector will struggle this year. The …
8th March 2024
Lagarde likely to dash remaining hopes of April rate cut The ECB decision to leave rates unchanged and the key messages in the press release were in line with expectations. In the forthcoming press conference we suspect that Christine Lagarde will kill …
7th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone sales rose but still weak January’s retail sales data are consistent with our view that the near-term outlook for consumption is poor. While retail sales edged up by …
6th March 2024
Swiss CPI (February) Swiss disinflation ending but rate cuts now likely The period of disinflation in Switzerland is close to an end, but with inflation likely to remain close to 1% for the foreseeable future we think policymakers will start lowering …
4th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. ECB rate cut in April is not going to happen February’s euro-zone inflation data look like the final nail in the coffin for an April interest rate cut . The decline in headline …
1st March 2024
German state figures point to fall in euro-zone inflation The fall in CPI inflation in most German states in February all but confirms that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation will have declined broadly in line with expectations this month. This …
29th February 2024
Swiss economic growth likely to accelerate further The second successive 0.3% q/q increase in Swiss GDP in Q4 was better than the consensus and our own forecasts of 0.1% and we now think economic growth is likely to accelerate further in the coming …
EC Survey points to stagnant economy and still-high price pressures The EC business and consumer survey for February reinforces the message that the economy is close to recession and that, although price pressures in the services sector eased slightly, …
28th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. German economy still contracting The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February left the index close to a post-pandemic low and suggests that the German economy …
23rd February 2024
PMIs point to stagnation, stubborn price pressures The flash PMIs for February suggest that the economy is still struggling and that price pressures are, if anything, intensifying. This does not dramatically change the picture for the ECB, but it does …
22nd February 2024
Fall in Swedish core inflation supports case for May rate cut The underlying measure of inflation fell further in January and supports the case for the Riksbank to ease monetary policy soon. We expect the first rate cut in May. Data released by the …
19th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy to remain weak, strong labour market performance likely to end Data released this morning confirm that the euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we expect this to …
14th February 2024
Sharp fall in Swiss inflation reinforces our view that rates will be cut in March The large decrease in headline inflation in Switzerland in January means the inflation rate looks sure to undershoot the SNB’s Q1 forecast of 1.8%. Along with the fall in …
13th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further easing in core inflation sets up Q2 rate cut January’s continued fall in core inflation in Norway, and renewed fall in the headline rate, support our view that price …
9th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Industrial recession continues The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect …
7th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation falling but services disinflation stalls January’s euro-zone inflation data were a little stronger than we had expected after the data for Germany and France were …
1st February 2024
Riksbank on track for May rate cut The Rikbsank signalled in today’s policy statement that interest rates may be cut sooner than they previously anticipated, supporting our view that the first cut is likley to be in May. The decision to leave the key …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fall in inflation brings rate cuts nearer National data published so far suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone came down a little more than we had expected in …
31st January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy to remain stagnant The euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we think that it will flat-line in the first half of this year too as the effects of past monetary tightening …
30th January 2024
Euro-zone in or close to recession Fourth quarter GDP data published for for France and Spain this morning were a little better than we had anticipated. However, provided there is no revision to the “very preliminary” estimate that the German economy …
Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the tone of the press release, were as expected. In the forthcoming press conference, Christine Lagarde is likely to push back against expectations for policy rates to start falling in April. It came …
25th January 2024
Germany starts year in recessionary conditions The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index in January suggests that Germany started the year as it ended 2023 – in recessionary conditions. We think the economy will contract again in Q1 and forecast zero GDP …
Norges Bank today reiterated that it will leave its policy rate at 4.5% “for some time”. But we think that inflation will fall rapidly this year, so when the Bank does start to cut rates, it will do so more quickly than its forecasts suggest. The decision …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs remain consistent with recession January’s euro-zone Composite PMI, published this morning, remained consistent with the economy contracting by around 0.2% q/q. The tick up …
24th January 2024
German troubles not over yet Preliminary data published today show that German GDP contracted in Q4 and we expect it to continue to struggle this year. Today’s data release shows that Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in calendar year 2023, and a …
15th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fall in core inflation confirms Norges Bank is finished with rate hikes The fact that core inflation fell and the headline rate was unchanged in December confirms that Norges …
10th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone activity fell in Q4, services price pressures still look strong The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have …
8th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis. Rise in Swiss inflation will be reversed in January The unexpected increase in Swiss inflation in December raises some doubt as to whether rates will be cut soon. However, we suspect that the headline …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jump in headline inflation is just a blip December’s jump in headline inflation in the euro-zone was widely anticipated and entirely due to a base-effects driven increase in …
5th January 2024
Rebound in inflation won’t last The jump in Germany’s headline inflation rate in December came as no surprise as it was driven by energy price subsidies introduced more than a year ago. With core inflation continuing to trend down, it should not affect …
4th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs point to recession The final Composite PMI for the euro-zone in December was revised up significantly from the flash estimate of 47.0 to 47.6, meaning that it was unchanged …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. “Rezession” to drag on The renewed decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in December echoes the message from the Composite PMI released last week and unequivocally …
18th December 2023
The drop-back in the euro-zone Composite PMI in December provides more evidence that the economy is in recession as domestic and foreign demand contracts. The fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI from 47.6 in November to 47.0 in December left it lower than …
15th December 2023
ECB holding the line for now The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 4.0% today and make only limited changes to the policy statement suggests that policymakers are pushing back against market expectations for rate cuts to begin in March …
14th December 2023
Tightening cycle comes to an end Today’s decision by Norges Bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50% marks the end of its tightening cycle. Looking ahead, we have pencilled in a faster pace of rate cuts next year than policymakers currently …
SNB leaves rates unchanged, but policy loosening is imminent The SNB kept rates on hold at 1.75% at today’s policy meeting, but the monetary policy statement was dovish as policymakers placed less emphasis on selling FX assets and reduced their inflation …
