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We don’t think the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities will continue to hold up better than those in developed markets (DMs) if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. The valuations of emerging market equities – as measured by …
21st October 2022
Even though equity and bond valuations in frontier markets and a few smaller emerging markets (EMs) have fallen sharply, we think the risk of contagion is low and that most EMs will hold up relatively well. EM financial assets have come under serious …
21st July 2022
Even though the valuations of technology stocks have, in general, already fallen sharply in recent weeks, we suspect they may decline further over the next couple of years. This is one reason why we expect the sectors in which they are heavily represented …
25th January 2022
While measures of the valuation of China’s stock market have fallen recently, we don’t expect them to rebound soon. This helps to underpin our fairly downbeat forecasts for the country’s stock indices. After getting close to its highest levels in over a …
5th August 2021
The valuations of Chinese equities have risen considerably over the past few months. But we don’t think that they are yet in a big bubble that is bound to burst soon. Admittedly, the forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300, one of the benchmark …
19th January 2021
Despite signs of exuberance in a few markets, we don’t think that we are in the late stages of a bubble in “risky” assets generally. Provided vaccines enable the gradual relaxation of coronavirus restrictions around the world, we continue to forecast that …
14th January 2021
We think that the returns from emerging market (EM) equities in 2020 won’t be anywhere as good as in 2019. While this view is partly premised on our forecast that earnings growth will generally be weak, valuations are also unlikely to provide much …
13th January 2020
We don’t expect the valuations of US equities to continue to rise over the rest of 2019. In fact, we expect the price/earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 to fall, and this is a key reason why we forecast that the index will drop by about 15% from its …
3rd October 2019
