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The flash PMIs for September show that the pace of growth slowed across developed economies towards the end of Q3, suggesting that the boost to activity from reopening is fading. But inflationary pressures show no signs of abating, with indicators of …
23rd September 2021
If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial dislocation within China or a property-led slump in China’s …
22nd September 2021
In this Update , we answer six key questions about the surge in natural gas prices. The key point is that it will keep inflation in DMs and many EMs above central bank targets for a few months longer than we had previously assumed. Governments are already …
21st September 2021
There have been growing signs of a slowdown in the pace of the global recovery in recent months. World industrial production fell in July and retail sales declined in almost all major economies, while the business surveys suggest that activity softened …
20th September 2021
We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market turbulence. Even if it were the first of many property …
16th September 2021
Our inflation forecasts already incorporate some passthrough of pipeline pressures including higher shipping costs to consumer prices. But given that maritime shipping costs have never surged anywhere near as much as they have done during the past year, …
14th September 2021
Supply shortages may continue to limit growth and put upward pressure on prices for several months to come before a new wave of COVID infections is brought under control, economies reopen, and spending patterns normalise. Shortages have related to both …
9th September 2021
The data released over the northern hemisphere summer break have suggested that economic recoveries in most countries have started to lose some steam. At the same time, while inflation is generally higher now that at the start of the summer, there are …
2nd September 2021
August’s global manufacturing PMIs brought more evidence of a slowdown in the sector. Growth was always going to fall back as activity approached more normal levels, but supply shortages are also playing a role. There is early evidence that the adverse …
1st September 2021
The latest data show that world trade has flattened off at a high level. While timely indicators suggest that trade is unlikely to reaccelerate, it doesn’t look set to weaken much either. Consequently, bottlenecks at ports, and associated delivery delays …
25th August 2021
The flash PMIs for August confirm that growth in developed economies is slowing from a strong pace. This normalisation was always to be expected after the rapid post-pandemic revival, but the renewed rise in virus numbers and staff and materials shortages …
23rd August 2021
Most attention has been concentrated on the transient drivers of higher inflation, but a more sustainable pick-up in rent inflation is also underway in the US. This Update recaps how rents are treated in the CPI data in major advanced economies and …
17th August 2021
Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the Delta variant has had limited impact on economic activity outside parts of Asia. The risk of stricter containment measures will continue to be greater in much of the emerging world than it will be in developed …
13th August 2021
Slowdowns in China and the US should not be taken as evidence that the global recovery is stalling. Admittedly, it is not just some high-profile data from the US and China that have weakened recently. Recoveries in retail sales, industrial output, and …
12th August 2021
If labour earnings growth took a decisive leg up, this would force central banks to rethink how long this year’s bout of higher inflation in advanced economies will last. The challenge is that the headline earnings data are affected by distortions that …
4th August 2021
The main takeaway from today’s batch of manufacturing PMIs is that industrial output growth looks to have peaked. Output indices have generally stopped rising, and new orders indices have come off the boil. Even so, with supply unable to keep up with …
2nd August 2021
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The initial post-pandemic resurgence is nearing its zenith, but strong policy support and limited private sector net debt should allow most economies to grow at a healthy pace over the next two years. The US and …
28th July 2021
Real world goods trade edged down in May, suggesting that the recovery has levelled off. True, this slight fall comes after an impressive rebound since May last year, global trade remains well above its pre-virus level, and trade data are usually …
26th July 2021
The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some industrial commodity producers, we do not think it will …
23rd July 2021
The overarching message from today’s batch of flash PMIs was that higher inflation isn’t going away anytime soon in major advanced economies. Some of the inflation indicators edged away from their recent record highs, but that leaves them at historically …
In this Update we identify five things that we have learned from reopening so far. Some we anticipated, including the rapid rebound in activity once restrictions were removed and an easing of trade growth as output in advanced economies resumed. But …
20th July 2021
Global economic activity looks to have perked up recently, despite a slowdown in China and a slightly weaker re-opening bounce in the US than most had anticipated. The hard economic data have revealed further improvements in global industrial output and …
15th July 2021
The apparent success of vaccines at preventing severe illness and death from the Delta coronavirus variant should mean that it does not pose a major threat to recoveries in most advanced economies. However, the rapid spread of the Delta variant poses a …
14th July 2021
We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will be purposely designed not to shake …
6th July 2021
The dip in the global manufacturing PMI in June left it at a very high level, with the advanced economies leading a continued strong recovery in output. But industrial recoveries seem to have lost pace in Asia, reflecting a slowdown in demand for imports …
1st July 2021
High inflation has driven up rate expectations everywhere. But the inflation outlook is varied, and other aims will determine policy too. Norway and New Zealand will be first to tighten among DMs, others will delay. The rise in inflation and the question …
30th June 2021
April’s data revealed that world trade flows have enjoyed virtually interrupted growth for 12 months now, with world trade remaining well above its pre-virus level. But between the quintupling of shipping costs over the past year, supply disruptions, and …
25th June 2021
Inflation indicators in the flash PMIs for June reached new record highs and supplier delivery times lengthened still further. However, outside the US at least, there are few signs that goods shortages and higher costs have held back the recovery in …
23rd June 2021
Global Inflation Watch is our in-depth quarterly guide to how price pressures are developing across developed and emerging economies. This exclusive publication includes insight into how traditional sources of inflation are contributing to the current …
21st June 2021
Much of the rise in inflation in major advanced economies from February to May has reflected the fact that prices fell in the same period a year ago. That said, depending on how you measure it, around half of the jump in inflation in the US and UK over …
18th June 2021
Our Mobility Trackers show that global economic activity is benefitting from the removal of restrictions in advanced economies. Good progress with vaccinations suggests that this trend should continue, albeit with risks around new variants. The story is …
17th June 2021
Global GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1 as most parts of the world grappled with renewed waves of coronavirus. The US and Korea were among the few exceptions where recoveries accelerated. But with global infection numbers now falling, activity seems to be …
11th June 2021
A rise in inflation was always likely to happen this year as economies re-opened and energy prices recovered from last year’s sharp falls. But in the US in particular, the increase since the start of the year has exceeded even our relatively strong …
10th June 2021
The direct implications of this weekend’s deal on global corporate taxation struck by G7 finance ministers will be limited. But the deal suggests that wealthy nations have found renewed determination under a Biden presidency to cooperate on global issues, …
7th June 2021
The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile, goods shortages are exerting upward pressure on prices, …
1st June 2021
There are signs that countries whose rollouts are advanced have hit something of a limit, with the remaining population now reluctant to be vaccinated. But this will not necessarily prevent economies reopening once the vulnerable are vaccinated. Potential …
28th May 2021
The further rise in real trade in March suggests that external demand continued to recover, even as capacity constraints related to shipping were intensifying. And while shipping costs have risen and delays worsened in the weeks since these data were …
26th May 2021
The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well as exerting upward pressure on prices, there are some …
21st May 2021
While pay growth has risen across the developed economies, in several cases this reflects reduced hours or the fact that a disproportionate number of low paid workers have lost their jobs. There are clear signs of labour shortages in the US, but for now …
20th May 2021
Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus-related restrictions. We also think the broad-based rally in …
17th May 2021
We think that the broad-based rally in commodity prices will go into reverse later this year, so the upward pressure on inflation in advanced economies should be temporary. But there is a clear risk of a more sustained pick-up in inflation, especially if …
12th May 2021
Our Mobility Trackers suggest that global economic activity has continued to pick up and this positive trend should continue as vaccination programmes gather pace and there is a more widespread lifting of restrictions. That said, the surge in new cases in …
10th May 2021
In this Update , we outline the key data that will help us gauge the evolution of inflationary pressure in advanced economies as they open up. Pandemic-related distortions mean that it is particularly important to understand the detail to distinguish …
5th May 2021
The rise in the global manufacturing PMI suggests that the strong recovery in industrial production continued in April, but supply constraints are continuing to push up prices around the world. While the IHS Markit surveys are yet to provide evidence that …
4th May 2021
Policy stimulus and tolerance of inflation by central banks may lead to higher inflation in some G7 countries in the coming years. Given the parallels with the run-up to the high-inflation era of the 1970s, it is natural to be worried about history …
29th April 2021
Income support and limits on spending had already led households in advanced economies to build up almost $3.5tn in extra cash by the end of 2020, equating to 7.6% of GDP. And the stockpile of these supranormal savings will continue to grow in 2021. We …
26th April 2021
The blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given container ship, which ran aground exactly one month ago, has had limited effects on shipping congestion and container freight rates worldwide. Meanwhile, data released today showed that world goods trade …
23rd April 2021
The advanced economy flash PMIs for April painted a positive picture, albeit with recoveries in the US and UK seemingly far outpacing those in the euro-zone and Japan as restrictions were relaxed in the former two economies. Input prices are still rising …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – A rise in virus cases and some setbacks to vaccination programmes have pushed back the recoveries in some countries somewhat, but we still expect strong global growth of over 6% this year. The US will continue to …
The world economy lost considerable momentum in the first quarter as resurgences of the virus and tighter lockdown measures weighed on activity. The lesson from Q4 last year was that households and businesses have adapted to lockdown measures to a …
16th April 2021
