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As of January, world trade had already fallen by more than 5% from its peak in September. And despite a slight boost from reopening in China, several leading indicators still point to further falls in trade in the months ahead. One upside is that this …
11th April 2023
While a slew of recent data from advanced economies have surprised to the upside, world trade data are still very much consistent with economic weakness in the near term. Not only did Q4 see one of the biggest drops in world goods trade since the 1980s, …
28th February 2023
World trade has fallen in recent months on the back of slowing global growth. COVID-related weakness in Chinese activity in Q4 weighed notably on China’s exports, and while its seemingly rapid recovery has somewhat improved the global picture, weak …
26th January 2023
Trade is beginning to slow as the world heads into a recession. In real terms, world trade barely rose in September, and timelier data from Asian economies suggest outright falls are imminent. Falling export orders and shipping costs point to a further …
28th November 2022
There is growing evidence that weakening demand in major economies is taking a toll on world trade. While trade volumes rose in August, early reporting Asian economies revealed a decline in imports in September, exports orders have fallen sharply across …
26th October 2022
While world trade was resilient in the first half of this year, there is growing evidence that it has since weakened, and we suspect that it will contract outright in 2023 as the world economy falls into recession. Weaker demand for traded goods and …
28th September 2022
World trade was broadly unchanged at a high level in June, and timelier data suggest that the continued easing of supply constraints in China helped lift exports in Asia in July. But forward-looking indicators suggest that global demand for goods …
26th August 2022
A sharp rebound in Chinese exports helped lift world trade higher in May, and could boost trade further in the coming months. But outside of China, forward-looking indicators still suggest that weaker global demand will weigh on trade, meaning that …
27th July 2022
Official data showed that world trade rose slightly in April and limited data for May suggest that it probably rose further as disruptions from lockdowns in China eased. But weaker global final demand for goods, due to a gradual normalisation in spending …
28th June 2022
After a growth spurt late last year, world trade flatlined in Q1. The Ukraine war and lockdowns in China raised concerns that renewed supply bottlenecks would choke up world trade. However, notwithstanding the reported surge in US imports in March, it …
27th May 2022
While official data showed that world trade held up well in February, timelier national indicators suggest that exports from some Asian economies have fallen since then. This slowdown seems to reflect weaker global consumer demand, which we expect to …
26th April 2022
The latest available official data suggest that world trade held onto gains from Q4 in January, and timely indicators suggest that it may have edged up in February. It will be May before we have comprehensive official data on the hit to trade activity in …
29th March 2022
The latest trade data suggest that the Omicron wave caused limited disruption at the turn of the year. And, for now, it looks like the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on world trade will be small in aggregate. But the hit would become much larger if …
1st March 2022
After gradually trending lower for much of last year, November marked the second consecutive month of strong growth in world trade, which reached a new record high. This adds to evidence that some product shortages began to ease towards the end of 2021. …
26th January 2022
World trade has continued to edge down from its high peak in March, as supply shortages have meant that Asian exporters remain unable to keep up with strong demand from consumers in advanced economies. Even when demand does eventually abate, large …
25th November 2021
The evidence keeps mounting that world trade is unable to rise any further from its elevated level. And industrial supply and global logistics are likely to continue failing to keep up with demand in the coming months, even as the global recovery slows. …
28th October 2021
While world goods trade fell in July, the signs are that it perked up a bit in August. But stepping back from the month-to-month moves, global trade flows have broadly flattened out at a high level, and we expect this pattern to continue into 2022. With …
27th September 2021
The latest data show that world trade has flattened off at a high level. While timely indicators suggest that trade is unlikely to reaccelerate, it doesn’t look set to weaken much either. Consequently, bottlenecks at ports, and associated delivery delays …
25th August 2021
Real world goods trade edged down in May, suggesting that the recovery has levelled off. True, this slight fall comes after an impressive rebound since May last year, global trade remains well above its pre-virus level, and trade data are usually …
26th July 2021
April’s data revealed that world trade flows have enjoyed virtually interrupted growth for 12 months now, with world trade remaining well above its pre-virus level. But between the quintupling of shipping costs over the past year, supply disruptions, and …
25th June 2021
The further rise in real trade in March suggests that external demand continued to recover, even as capacity constraints related to shipping were intensifying. And while shipping costs have risen and delays worsened in the weeks since these data were …
26th May 2021
The blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given container ship, which ran aground exactly one month ago, has had limited effects on shipping congestion and container freight rates worldwide. Meanwhile, data released today showed that world goods trade …
23rd April 2021
Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau suggested that world trade had shrugged off rising shipping costs up to January, with real goods trade rising by 2.5% m/m. The outlook is broadly positive. But if the grounding of the huge container ship in the Suez …
25th March 2021
While the latest signs are that capacity constraints in global shipping are continuing to bite, we expect these to subside over the course of the year. Indeed, as vaccine rollouts allow economies to reopen, the pace of the recovery in goods trade should …
26th February 2021
Another increase in world trade in November meant that it exceeded its pre-pandemic level, though exports remained depressed in the US and emerging Europe. Since November, container freight rates have surged, reflecting shipping supply struggling to cope …
26th January 2021
While world GDP was probably still about 3% short of its end-2019 level at the end of Q3, world trade had recovered to 1.5% below its pre-virus peak. As long as industry remains relatively unscathed by renewed restrictions in Europe and the US, trade …
30th November 2020
The further rise in world trade volumes in August was unsurprising given that there has been a strong recovery the demand for imported goods. Given the experience so far, we would expect world trade to continue holding up relatively well even if the new …
26th October 2020
At its trough, in May, world trade fell 17% below its December 2019 level. Data released today show that, by July, world trade had made up two thirds of the lost ground, standing at 6.6% below its December peak. Given the encouraging signs from the timely …
25th September 2020
The record monthly rise in global trade volumes in June was little surprise given both the size of the falls earlier in the year and that, by this point, most countries were past the worst of their lockdowns. While we think that the jump in June marks the …
26th August 2020
Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau showed a further fall in world trade in May. Admittedly, the decline in trade so far this year has been smaller than the collapse in GDP might have led us to fear and timelier data are consistent with an improvement in …
24th July 2020
April’s world trade data confirmed that coronavirus restrictions have taken a very heavy toll on trade flows. But the damage has been slightly less severe than we had feared and more timely data from early-reporting economies offer hope that the worst is …
25th June 2020
Given that the lockdowns were implemented in most countries in March, the 1.4% m/m contraction in world trade volumes seems fairly muted. However, the global number was flattered by a sharp rebound in China as shutdowns there eased. And more timely data …
27th May 2020
Whilst the CPB world trade data showed another small drop in February, with lockdowns taking effect across much of the world in March, we expect much sharper falls in the coming months. In total, we expect the coronavirus to knock around a fifth off world …
24th April 2020
The latest trade figures from the CPB revealed only a small fall in world trade volumes in January, but export orders from the PMI surveys have since slumped. With the coronavirus plunging the world economy into recession, global trade looks set to fall …
25th March 2020
World trade volumes rose slightly in December in another sign that global trade was stabilising at the end of 2019. In the months since, early evidence suggests that the coronavirus has dealt a heavy blow. So far, the effects seem to have been …
25th February 2020
World trade volumes fell in November after a slight rise in October. But leading indicators suggest that a turnaround in global trade growth is just around the corner, though the recovery will be gradual. Recent data published by the CPB Netherlands …
24th January 2020
September’s fall in world trade volumes was a blow to hopes that the global economy may have reached a turning point. There are some signs of stabilisation in leading indicators of trade, and base effects should push the annual growth rate above zero …
26th November 2019
After a jump in July, world trade volumes rose again in August. But this is unlikely to be the start of a material recovery – indeed, most indicators point to subdued trade growth in the closing months of 2019. Recent data published by the CPB Netherlands …
28th October 2019
While world trade volumes rebounded in July, they only recovered ground lost the previous month. The big picture is that world trade is set to remain weak in the coming months as the global industrial downturn drags on. Data published this week by the CPB …
27th September 2019
World trade volumes contracted again in the second quarter, and forward-looking indicators suggest that trade growth is likely to stay subdued, just as the US-China trade war is heating up again. Data published last week by the CPB Netherlands Bureau …
27th August 2019
May’s small rise in world trade volumes added to evidence that trade growth may have begun to stabilise following the slump that began in Q4 last year. But we see little sign of a recovery coming any time soon. Data published yesterday by the CPB …
26th July 2019
After rounding off a weak first quarter, world trade volumes fell in April. As the global economy slows further, world trade growth is likely to be sluggish, almost irrespective of developments in the trade war. Data published today by the CPB Netherlands …
25th June 2019
