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Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2024) …
12th April 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024) …
13th March 2024
We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to outperform …
15th February 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
11th January 2024
We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to outperform Europe. And while China’s policy-induced …
15th December 2023
While the US economy considerably outperformed its DM peers in Q3, we think that all advanced economies will suffer a weak Q4. High interest rates are weighing on credit growth, and a further rise in debt servicing costs in the coming quarters is likely …
17th November 2023
The latest activity and survey data have provided even more evidence that the resilience in activity in advanced economies over the first half of 2023 is now fading. High interest rates are clearly weighing on credit growth, and a further rise in debt …
13th October 2023
While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, there are growing signs that many major economies are losing momentum. We expect most advanced economies to experience mild recessions in the quarters ahead as …
14th September 2023
While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, we expect global growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. We doubt that another bout of policy stimulus will radically improve the outlook for China’s economy, …
14th August 2023
While the resilience in economic activity looks to have continued in May, the latest surveys point to GDP growth slowing in June. And in China, the post-reopening rebound appears to have already fizzled out. Meanwhile, the significant tightening in …
14th July 2023
While headline CPI prints have been encouraging in recent months, policymakers will be nervous about the stickiness of core inflation. Average headline inflation in major advanced economies had dropped from 8.5% late last year to below 6% in April, and …
14th June 2023
Q1 GDP releases have confirmed that the major economies avoided recession at the start of the year and some of the more recent survey data suggest that this resilience continued into Q2. The composite PMI output index for developed economies rose from …
12th May 2023
Recent data appear to confirm that economic activity held up better than feared at the start of 2023. Retail sales rose in most major economies over the first two months of the year, world industrial production was broadly stable and China’s zero-COVID …
13th April 2023
Even before SVB’s collapse prompted a reassessment of the health of the global banking system, bank credit conditions were already tightening in response to higher interest rates. (See Chart 1.) We have written many notes to help navigate the …
17th March 2023
A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and UK economies (narrowly) avoided outright contraction …
16th February 2023
The past month has brought a string of positive developments on the activity and inflation side. The biggest news has been China’s decision to throw in the towel on its zero-COVID policy, which brightened the prospects for the world’s largest economy …
13th January 2023
Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%. Of course, that is still a very high rate, but there …
7th December 2022
Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather than contract as expected, but the economy managed to …
11th November 2022
The latest data suggest that the labour market strength, which has been a key feature of advanced economies this year, might be coming to an end. Admittedly, unemployment rates have generally been stable at very low levels. However, falling job vacancy …
14th October 2022
The latest data have revealed that the world’s major economies are all struggling, but for different reasons. In Europe, the energy crisis is largely behind the recent softness in consumer and industrial activity. In the US, higher interest rates are …
14th September 2022
There have been growing signs that we are at the turning point in global inflation. Commodity prices and shipping costs are down both in y/y and level terms, while product shortages have alleviated as softer demand and fewer bottlenecks have opened up …
12th August 2022
Recent data suggest that global economic activity was even weaker than we initially thought in Q2, with GDP probably contracting in several major economies including the euro-zone, UK and China. The earliest signs for Q3 are not good, with business …
13th July 2022
Global economic activity might have contracted slightly in Q2, which would be the weakest outcome in recent history aside from the height of the pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis. Part of the weakness reflects a likely slump in Russian GDP, but we …
15th June 2022
Recent data have shown the firmest evidence yet that high inflation is damaging real consumer spending in advanced economies. Real retail sales fell in the US, UK, and euro-zone in March, while increases in Australia and Japan reflected temporary rebounds …
13th May 2022
World GDP appears to have expanded at a below-trend pace in Q1 as high inflation limited real consumer spending and supply shortages and Omicron waves continued to disrupt activity. March’s broad-based drop in consumer confidence suggests that consumer …
14th April 2022
We warned at the start of the year that global growth would disappoint, while inflation would surprise to the upside in 2022 and recent events have added to those concerns. The surge in commodity prices related to the war in Ukraine means that headline …
15th March 2022
While data from the past month have been consistent with global economic activity picking up some pace towards the tail end of 2021, timely data point to a weak turn of the year as the Omicron wave took its toll. For example, virus caution and government …
11th February 2022
There were signs that supply shortages were starting to ease in some places at the tail end of 2021. World trade was its strongest since shortages began to bite a year ago and industrial production had picked up too, especially in the auto industry as …
14th January 2022
Outside China, global inflation jumped from 5.0% to 5.5% in October, its highest level since 2008. And timely data point to a further rise in November. Base effects, fading ‘re-opening’ inflation, and falling commodity prices will drag on headline …
14th December 2021
Recent indicators confirm that the global recovery has continued, but also that it has entered a slower and more difficult phase. US GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3, and our China Activity Proxy suggests that there was a large contraction there. (See …
11th November 2021
With shortages of goods and labour still dominating the news, and following our Focus research into global shortages, we have added a new page to the Global Economics Chart Book to monitor their evolution. While the global economy has continued to grow at …
14th October 2021
There have been growing signs of a slowdown in the pace of the global recovery in recent months. World industrial production fell in July and retail sales declined in almost all major economies, while the business surveys suggest that activity softened …
20th September 2021
Slowdowns in China and the US should not be taken as evidence that the global recovery is stalling. Admittedly, it is not just some high-profile data from the US and China that have weakened recently. Recoveries in retail sales, industrial output, and …
12th August 2021
Global economic activity looks to have perked up recently, despite a slowdown in China and a slightly weaker re-opening bounce in the US than most had anticipated. The hard economic data have revealed further improvements in global industrial output and …
15th July 2021
Global GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1 as most parts of the world grappled with renewed waves of coronavirus. The US and Korea were among the few exceptions where recoveries accelerated. But with global infection numbers now falling, activity seems to be …
11th June 2021
Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus-related restrictions. We also think the broad-based rally in …
17th May 2021
The world economy lost considerable momentum in the first quarter as resurgences of the virus and tighter lockdown measures weighed on activity. The lesson from Q4 last year was that households and businesses have adapted to lockdown measures to a …
16th April 2021
Both the hard data and more timely surveys imply that the major advanced economies have had a mixed start to the year. The US has fared particularly well, thanks to easing pandemic-related restrictions and strong fiscal stimulus. Most notably, $600 …
11th March 2021
Global growth slowed throughout the fourth quarter and most economies entered the new year on a weak footing. We have limited hard data for 2021 so far, but timely surveys and our high-frequency Mobility Trackers are generally consistent with a further …
10th February 2021
While the economic fallout will not be as severe as it was with the first lockdowns, the surge in virus cases will weigh on activity in Q1. Vaccine rollouts should provide a boost to the global recovery, but not until the second half of the year. …
12th January 2021
Recent data confirm that global economic activity has continued to recover from the height of coronavirus restrictions in Q2. But while activity in China is now above its pre-virus level, there is still a major shortfall in other economies, including …
10th December 2020
Hard GDP data have confirmed that most economies saw sharp rebounds in activity in Q3 after the lockdowns of Q2. But monthly data suggest that the pace of improvement slowed during the quarter and the latest renewed tightening of restrictions in advanced …
11th November 2020
While retail sales have rebounded rapidly and are now above pre-virus levels in most major DMs, overall consumer spending has failed to reach the levels seen at the end of last year. (See Chart 1.) That is largely because many of the consumer services …
12th October 2020
Economic activity rose sharply in most economies as lockdowns eased during May and June. But, outside China, GDP is still some way below pre-COVID levels and there are signs that renewed virus fears are already prompting a slowdown. Gains in industrial …
11th September 2020
GDP data for Q2 revealed sharp declines in activity in all major economies except China, driven primarily by slumps in consumer spending. Retail sales data for May and June pointed to an encouragingly sharp rebound, leaving sales above their pre-virus …
13th August 2020
Hard data for May generally revealed sharp improvements in activity, particularly retail spending, albeit not to pre-virus levels. This led us to revise our forecasts for several economies including the US, UK and euro-zone, where we now expect falls in …
9th July 2020
Available data suggest that world GDP will fall by around 8% q/q in Q2. While China has seen some recovery, GDP in southern Europe probably fell by as much as 25% on the quarter and India appears to have seen a similar drop. (See Chart 1.) Thankfully, …
15th June 2020
After falling by around 6% q/q in Q1, world GDP looks set for an equally sharp slump in the second quarter. As major advanced economies are following Asia’s lead in easing containment measures, global activity has hopefully passed its trough. …
19th May 2020
A host of global indicators are showing the devastating effects of the coronavirus and related containment measures on the world economy. The global services PMI (see Chart 1) dropped to its lowest level on record in March and such qualitative surveys are …
9th April 2020
