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Financial markets have largely taken the latest escalation in the Middle East over the past week in stride. Having spiked from $87pb to $90pb on the news of today’s attack, Brent crude oil has now fallen back to below $88pb. Similarly, the big moves in …
19th April 2024
The US dollar has surged in the wake of another too-hot US CPI print , a dovish ECB and disappointing credit data out of China . The DXY index is now approaching its peak of last autumn (~106 currently, vs ~107 on 1 st November), and our sense is that the …
12th April 2024
Another robust US non-farm payrolls report has seen the dollar rebound a bit, unwinding some of its losses earlier in the week and putting the DXY index on track to end the week near its highest level on the year. With FOMC members continuing to signal …
5th April 2024
The US dollar has eked out small gains against some major currencies so far this week, leaving the DXY index just below 105 at the time of writing. During an otherwise quiet week, the February PCE data release out of the US tomorrow may add to the …
28th March 2024
The US dollar has bounced back from its brief drop after the FOMC’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference, and is ending the week stronger across the board. To some extent that is surprising: the FOMC’s overall message arguably had a …
22nd March 2024
Stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data out of the US were the key catalysts for the greenback’s rebound this week, as investors continued to pare back their expectations for the Fed to cut its policy rate. These expectations will be put to the test next …
15th March 2024
Today’s softish US non-farm payrolls report , combined with Fed Chair Powell’s relatively neutral testimony to Congress earlier in the week, has put an end to the dollar’s strong start to 2024, and suggests to us that the greenback will remain on the back …
8th March 2024
The dollar has remained roughly unchanged against most major currencies over the past two weeks. Given that our expectations for upcoming data releases and central bank meetings – notably, nonfarm payrolls and the ECB meeting next week – are not far from …
1st March 2024
The tailwind of US equity outperformance appears to be fading for the greenback, as the DXY Index looks set to post its first weekly fall in 2024. A pullback after such a streak isn’t all that surprising, and an upside surprise in PCE data out of the US …
23rd February 2024
The theme of the week has been one of diverging inflation stories which have helped boost the US dollar. These divergences came not just between economies (hot in the US and cold in the UK, for example) but also within economies, with mixed messages from …
16th February 2024
While the dollar has fallen back a touch over the past couple of days, it has held on to most of its post-payrolls gains. The DXY index is now up about 3% on the year, having regained roughly half its drop over the last two months of 2023. The greenback’s …
9th February 2024
The DXY index seems set to close this week at its strongest level in almost two months, breaking out of a narrow range amid a flurry of data releases out of the US. Consistent with Fed Chair Powell’s continued emphasis on data dependence, signs of …
2nd February 2024
The US dollar seems set to remain within a tight range against most major currencies this week. At face value, the stronger-than-expected GDP data out of the US might point to a return to “higher for longer”, but the growing evidence of disinflationary …
26th January 2024
The US dollar’s rebound has gained momentum this week amid hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and more evidence out of the US – notably retail sales and jobless claims – of continued resilience in the economy there. So far this year, currency markets …
19th January 2024
After a strong start to the year, the US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, as inflation data releases out of the US this week failed to generate much of a reaction. This stalemate in currency markets has been a …
12th January 2024
The dollar’s strong start to 2024 has partly reversed today as the surprisingly weak US ISM non-manufacturing survey has more than offset another robust US non-farm payrolls report . Even so, the greenback remains up on the week as interest rate …
5th January 2024
The final week ahead of the holiday period is drawing to an end with the US dollar somewhat weaker across the board. Unlike last year, the BoJ’s final policy meeting proved a(nother) damp squib, with policymakers equivocating somewhat on the timing of …
22nd December 2023
The Fed’s shift away from its “higher for longer” messaging (and European central banks attempts at maintaining a hawkish stance) pushed relative interest rate expectations against the US dollar, leaving it weaker against nearly all major currencies this …
15th December 2023
The greenback has rebounded this week on the back of another batch of robust data out of the US economy, including today’s non-farm payrolls report . That stands in sharp contrast to the continued weakness in the euro-zone, where data on the German …
8th December 2023
The greenback’s grind lower has continued this week amid falling US Treasury yields and strong appetite for risk. While comments from numerous Fed speakers (including Chair Powell today) continued to point to an extended pause, PCE data and November’s …
1st December 2023
Currencies were no exception to the calm across markets, and the US dollar seems set the end the week a bit lower against most currencies. While “more of the same” downbeat data out of the euro-zone weighed on the euro, most other G10 currencies …
24th November 2023
The dollar is ending the week on the back foot, with the DXY index on track for its worst week since July, after this week’s US CPI print came in softer than expected. That has reinforced the growing consensus that US inflation is on track back to target …
17th November 2023
In an otherwise quiet week, the greenback seems set to close higher against most major currencies, reversing much of its decline following the October payrolls data release . We think the dollar’s rise is largely due to the renewed rise in US Treasury …
10th November 2023
After a remarkably slow October in currency markets – for all the fireworks in bond and equity markets, most major currencies were roughly unchanged on the month – November has started with a bang. Between a relatively dovish FOMC and a spate of softer US …
3rd November 2023
Despite another week of broadly dollar-positive news, the greenback has continued to drift sideways – suggesting its rally since July is running out of steam. Even though US Q3 GDP came in at nearly 5% annualised growth, while data in Europe continued to …
27th October 2023
Amid the surge in Treasury yields and the fall in global equities, the US dollar seems set (somewhat surprisingly) to end the week broadly unchanged. In our view, the key reason the dollar has failed to rally on the back of what looks in many ways like a …
20th October 2023
After another topsy-turvy week in financial markets, the dollar appears to be back on the front foot. In part, that probably reflects Thursday’s US CPI print, which came in a touch higher than expected. That led to a rebound in US Treasury yields, which …
13th October 2023
Remarkably, the dollar may be about the lose its record streak of weekly gains despite a strong US payrolls report . (See Chart 1.) While the initial reaction to today’s data was another jump in the greenback, it has since given back that gain, and those …
6th October 2023
The week is set to end with the US dollar a bit higher against most currencies and the DXY Index just below fresh year-to-date highs. The dollar’s latest gains coincide with yet another week of rising long-term bond yields in the US and elsewhere. But …
29th September 2023
Amid the flurry of central bank announcements, the Fed doubling down on “higher for longer” proved to be enough for the greenback to eke out small gains against most other currencies, taking the DXY index to a tenth consecutive weekly rise. While comments …
22nd September 2023
Another week, another rise in the DXY index, which at the time of writing is on track for a ninth consecutive weekly rise. Continued robust activity data in the US and the ECB signalling the end of its rate hiking cycle accounts for the greenback’s …
15th September 2023
The US dollar looks set to end the week higher against nearly all other major currencies. Remarkably, the DXY Index is set for an eight consecutive weekly rise, something that has rarely occurred since 1990. (See Chart 1.) And while that index is …
8th September 2023
A run of soft US labour market data has left the dollar on track to end the week slightly lower against most major currencies, threatening to break the DXY index’s six-week winning streak despite a strong rebound in the wake of the ISM manufacturing …
1st September 2023
PMI and other data released this week have added to evidence of the relative strength of the US economy amid a weakening global backdrop, shifting yield gaps in favour of the greenback and pushing it higher against most major currencies yet again. (See …
25th August 2023
The US dollar has continued to grind higher, with the DXY index on track for a fifth consecutive weekly gain on the back of more bad news out of China , continued pressure on risk sentiment, and a new cycle high in long-term US Treasury yields. In light …
18th August 2023
In spite of last week’s weak US payrolls report and this week’s soft CPI data, the dollar has, on net, risen against all other major currencies this week. This may be partly a result of hawkish comments from Fed officials in the aftermath of the CPI …
11th August 2023
With the mini-meltdown in US bond markets taking centre stage over recent days, the dollar had been on the front foot for much of the week until the softish non-farm payrolls report earlier today prompted a rebound in bond markets and a drop back in the …
4th August 2023
The Fed’s emphasis on data dependency amid even more evidence of resilience in the US economy pushed US Treasury yields up and the greenback higher against most major G10 currencies this week. Taken together with mixed activity data out of Europe and …
28th July 2023
The US dollar has rebounded over the past two days and looks set to unwind much of last week’s fall. (See Chart 1.) With US data somewhat mixed, much of this rebound in the greenback seems to have been driven by a reassessment of the outlook for other …
21st July 2023
In the wake of last week’s solid US payrolls report and this week’s below-expectation CPI data, which have strengthened hopes of a “soft-landing” in the US economy, short-term momentum has swung heavily against the dollar. Although it has rebounded a bit …
14th July 2023
While the US dollar has dropped back in the wake of today’s non-farm payrolls report, continuing its recent struggles, two other trends in currency markets are showing some signs of exhaustion. Most notably, the Chinese authorities have stepped up their …
7th July 2023
The US dollar has rebounded a bit this week on renewed signs that a global slowdown is underway and a growing sense that, like the Fed, most other central banks are also at, or near, the end of their tightening cycles. Although the summer doldrums are …
23rd June 2023
The US dollar has fallen for a third week in a row, with the DXY closing in on its weakest level so far this year. But, although it is increasingly challenged by the current “risk-on” environment, we are sticking to the view that the greenback will …
16th June 2023
The US dollar looks poised to end another week down a touch – the DXY index’s first consecutive weekly fall since April. That probably reflects yield gaps vis-à-vis most other developed markets (DMs) shifting against the greenback as surprise central bank …
9th June 2023
The US dollar looks set to end the week stronger against most major currencies amid the prospect of policy rates in developed markets (DM) remaining “higher for longer”. While this week’s rise in DM bond yields was broad-based, short-term yields in the US …
19th May 2023
The US dollar looks poised to end the week stronger against most major currencies, with the DXY Index on track for its biggest weekly rise since the index peaked in late September 2022. We think this partly reflects that many of the factors which have …
12th May 2023
Another mixed set of data out of the US this week – GDP , consumption and the Employment Cost Index – generally pointed to stubbornly high price pressures and slowing growth. The dollar reversed its gains following today’s data, leaving it close to the …
28th April 2023
The unexpected jump in US inflation data pushed the greenback higher against most currencies this week and may a harbinger of things to come – we continue to expect the dollar to appreciate this year. That said, recent US activity data, notably last …
14th May 2021
