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The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter, Mexico would be one of the most affected EMs. And even …
12th March 2024
We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term would also be a headwind for equities – especially …
22nd February 2024
We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed strength in the dollar over the next couple of years. …
25th January 2024
The US dollar and the prices of major commodities, in aggregate, have often risen and fallen in tandem since 2021, in contrast to their strong inverse relationship for much of the past two decades. While we wouldn’t go as far as classifying the greenback …
12th December 2023
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is unlikely to generate a sustained hit to major asset markets. …
26th October 2023
The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has driven the rise in long-term sovereign bond yields and …
6th October 2023
While the UK government’s apparent U-turn on fiscal policy offers some hope of relief for sterling, we think the outlook remains precarious. We continue to expect that sterling will lose further ground against the US dollar in the near term. But while …
20th October 2022
The Indian rupee has continued its long-run trend of depreciation against the US dollar this year, taking it to a record low of 80/$. It may still weaken further in the near term. However, there are reasons to think that that the rupee will reverse …
31st August 2022
The trade-weighted US dollar has edged up to multi-decade highs as the Fed has started to raise its policy rate. In this Focus, we analyse past Fed tightening cycles and explain why we think the dollar will continue to appreciate over the course of the …
12th May 2022
This Focus provides an overview of the concepts and models underpinning our new FX Markets Valuations Monitor . It is split into three sections. The first explains our framework for thinking about currency valuations. The second provides details on the …
20th August 2021
Having fallen back to near its post-pandemic lows, we don’t think that the decline in the US dollar will continue. In this Focus, we explain why instead we expect the dollar to strengthen against most currencies over the next 12-18 months. In the early …
11th June 2021
The purpose of this Focus is to introduce our new FX Markets service, which we launched in May 2021. It is split into three sections. The first provides an overview of the new service. The second explains our approach to forecasting currencies. The third …
27th May 2021
