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The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials …
4th March 2024
This report is the third of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It takes an in-depth look at the various factors that typically drive the EU carbon price in the short term. While supply …
22nd February 2024
This report is the second of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It sets out our approach for modelling the fundamental price of an EU carbon permit [1] over the rest of this decade. In …
This report is the first of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It starts by explaining what an emissions trading scheme (ETS) is and how the ETS has evolved since its introduction in …
Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile is likely to struggle to substantially raise copper and …
6th February 2024
We forecast that global lithium demand will roughly double by 2025 (from 2022). But supply will increase at a slower pace, which is why we forecast that prices will rise. Demand for lithium has surged in recent years, from 50,000 tonnes per year in …
31st January 2024
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
A lack of appropriate regulation may be one reason why ESG bond issuance has slowed over recent years, and why the premium that investors are willing to pay for ESG bonds over conventional bonds has all but evaporated. We think that improved regulations, …
14th November 2023
The government’s ambition of developing a globally-competitive manufacturing sector, combined with relatively slow progress on shifting away from using coal for electricity production, means India will become the world’s biggest polluter in the …
23rd August 2023
The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV adoption than other forecasters and suspect the drag on …
31st July 2023
If you aren't already receiving our Climate Economics coverage and would like us to arrange access, click here . Getting serious about decarbonisation would be more costly for governments than many fiscal scenarios would have you believe. Of course, the …
26th June 2023
India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it is likely to mean that income convergence with other, …
31st May 2023
Many academic studies underplay the extent to which higher temperatures could affect economic activity over the long run. Nonetheless, even in a scenario in which the global average temperature rose by more than 3 ° C from its pre-industrial average, …
16th May 2023
The global energy market is in the early days of a radical redesign due to the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In this Focus , we introduce our long-term energy market forecasts, which are characterised by continued growth in energy consumption and …
27th April 2023
There is a touch of the Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde about China’s climate credentials, with its well-documented record of burgeoning emissions and reliance on coal standing in stark contrast to its increasing influence over the supply of green technology. The …
31st January 2023
The “global” pledge to cut methane emissions by 30% this decade is a worthy aim, but the fact that the world’s biggest emitters have not signed up is far from helpful, and many of the obvious ways to reduce emissions should happen in spite of …
16th November 2022
The purpose of this Focus is to introduce our new dedicated Climate Economics research. It is split into three sections. This first looks at how our coverage will be structured and what topics we will focus on. The second introduces our Climate Databank …
10th October 2022
