The Capital Economics Hong Kong & Singapore Conferences 2019

Events Archive
4 March, 2019

Our Annual Conferences in Asia looked at “The Next Global Downturn: Causes & Consequences”. With evidence mounting that global growth has slowed, we looked at what explains the recent weakness in the major economies. We considered the outlook for monetary policy in the US, the weakness in European industry and the slowdown in global trade. A particular focus was China, which is facing both a cyclical downturn and a long-run deceleration resulting from the leadership’s rejection of market-friendly reforms. We asked what might trigger a hard landing in China. And we stepped back to ask whether the smart-money view that emerging economies will grow much faster than richer economies over the medium term is justified.

How severe will the downturn be in the G7?

Shilan Shah, our Senior Economist, discusses the following:

  • What factors are weighing on growth in the US, euro-zone & Japan?
  • How will the growth outlook affect inflation and monetary policy?
  • If bolder action is required, what other ammunition do policymakers have?

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